Six Options for Israel in Gaza

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Notes

1 Danielle Wallace, “Netanyahu Says Israel Must ‘destroy Hamas’ to Secure Palestinian Future, Too,” Fox News, November 12, 2023, https://www.foxnews.com/world/netanyahu-says-israel-must-destroy-hamas-secure-palestinian-future; David Aliberti and Daniel Byman, “What Does Destroying Hamas Mean?,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 15, 2023, https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-does-destroying-hamas-mean.

2 The Associated Press, “Palestinian Death Toll Passes 25,000 as Israel Announces the Death of Another Hostage,” NPR, January 21, 2024, https://www.npr.org/2024/01/21/1225883522/palestinian-death-toll-soars-past-25-000-in-gaza-with-no-end-to-war-in-sight; “White House Taking Iran-Backed Attacks on Its Iraq-Based Forces ‘Extremely Seriously,’” Voice of America, January 21, 2024, https://www.voanews.com/a/white-house-taking-iran-backed-attacks-on-its-iraq-based-forces-extremely-seriously/7449124.html.

3 Benjamin Netanyahu, “Benjamin Netanyahu: Our Three Prerequisites for Peace,” Wall Street Journal, December 25, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/benjamin-netanyahu-our-three-prerequisites-for-peace-gaza-israel-bff895bd.

4 David Aliberti and Daniel Byman, “What Does Destroying Hamas Mean?”

5 Adam Rasgon, “Protesters Storm Meeting at Israel’s Parliament to Demand More Action on Hostages,” New York Times, January 22, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/22/world/middleeast/israel-parliament-hamas-hostages-protest.html; Amir Tal et al., “Netanyahu Touts ‘Initiative’ to Free Hostages in Gaza as Pressure Mounts,” CNN, January 22, 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/22/middleeast/netanyahu-rejects-hamas-hostage-offer-mime-intl/index.html.

6 Robert Satloff, “Restoring Israeli Deterrence Is Critical to Both Security and Peace in the Middle East,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, October 2023, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/restoring-israeli-deterrence-critical-both-security-and-peace-middle-east; Ruth Eglash, “Israel Grapples with Country’s Biggest Internal Displacement in History,” Jewish Insider, November 6, 2023, https://jewishinsider.com/2023/11/israel-internal-displacement-hamas-terror-attacks-oct-7-kibbutz/.

7 Dov Lieber and David S. Cloud, “Israel Builds Buffer Zone along Gaza Border,” Wall Street Journal, January 25, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-border-gaza-buffer-zone-4131020d.

8 Aaron Boxerman et al., “Israel-Hamas War: Blast in Beirut Kills Senior Hamas Leader,” New York Times, January 2, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/01/02/world/israel-supreme-court-gaza-news.

9 Reuters, “Netanyahu Says He Has Told U.S. He Opposes Palestinian State in Any Postwar Scenario,” CNBC, January 18, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/18/netanyahu-says-he-has-told-us-he-opposes-palestinian-state-in-any-postwar-scenario.html.

10 Benedict Vigers, “Life in Israel After Oct. 7 in 5 Charts,” Gallup, December 22, 2023, https://news.gallup.com/poll/547760/life-israel-oct-charts.aspx; Karin Laub, “Palestinian Poll Shows a Rise in Hamas Support and Close to 90%,” Associated Press, December 13, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-palestinians-opinion-poll-wartime-views-a0baade915619cd070b5393844bc4514.

11 James Shotter et al., “Israel Plans to Sever Links with Gaza after Three-Phase War,” Financial Times, October 20, 2023.

12 Peter Champelli, “Gaza’s Rocket Arsenal: A Visual Guide,” Wall Street Journal, October 25, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-palestinians/card/a-look-at-gaza-s-rocket-arsenal-BTrAql1qHyQhmdozIjdj.

13 Danielle Wallace, “Netanyahu Says Israel Must ‘destroy Hamas’ to Secure Palestinian Future, Too”; Jason Burke, “Israel Could Keep Security Control of Gaza after Hamas Defeat, Says Defence Minister,” Guardian, January 5, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/05/israel-defence-minister-yoav-gallant-gaza-plan-after-war-hamas-palestine-control-antony-blinken-visit.

14 Stephen Pampinella, “The Effectiveness of Coercive and Persuasive Counterinsurgency Practices since 1945,” Civil Wars 17, no. 4 (2015): 503–526, https://doi.org/10.1080/13698249.2015.1120263; Jacqueline L. Hazelton, Bullets Not Ballots: Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare, Cornell Studies in Security Affairs (Ithaca, [New York]: Cornell University Press, 2021).

15 Karin Laub, “Palestinian Poll Shows a Rise in Hamas Support and Close to 90%.”

16 סמוטריץ בצלאל’ [Bezalel Smotrich], “Israel’s Decisive Plan,” השילוח [Hashiloach], September 7, 2017, https://hashiloach.org.il/israels-decisive-plan/.

17 Jacqueline L. Hazelton, Bullets Not Ballots.

18 Bilal Y. Saab, “The Closer Israel Gets to Destroying Hamas, the More Likely War with Hezbollah Becomes,” Expert Comment, Chatham House, November 17, 2023, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/11/closer-israel-gets-destroying-hamas-more-likely-war-hezbollah-becomes.

19 Frank Jack Daniel, “High Civilian Toll in Gaza Is Cost of Crushing Hamas, Israeli Military Officials Say,” Reuters, December 19, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/high-civilian-toll-gaza-is-cost-crushing-hamas-israeli-military-officials-say-2023-12-19/.

20 “Pro-Palestine Protests Held around the World as Gaza War Nears 100 Days,” Al Jazeera, January 13, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/13/pro-palestine-demonstrations-around-the-world-as-gaza-war-nears-100-days; Daniel Ramos, “Bolivia Severs Ties with Israel, Others Recall Envoys over Gaza,” Reuters, November 1, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolivia-severs-diplomatic-ties-with-israel-citing-crimes-against-humanity-2023-10-31/; “Turkey Recalls Ambassador to Israel over ‘Humanitarian Tragedy in Gaza,’” Al Jazeera, November 4, 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/4/turkey-recalls-ambassador-to-israel-for-consultations-as-gaza-bombing-rages; Abigail Williams and Dan De Luce, “Dissent, and a Generation Gap, inside the U.S. Government over Israel,” NBC News, November 30, 2023, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/dissent-generation-gap-biden-administration-israel-hamas-war-rcna127358; “South Africa Tells Top UN Court Israel Is Committing Genocide in Gaza as Landmark Case Begins,” AP News, January 11, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/world-court-israel-genocide-gaza-south-africa-774ab3c3d57fd7bcc627602eaf47fd98.

21 Nathan J. Brown and Amr Hamzawy, “Arab Peace Initiative II: How Arab Leadership Could Design a Peace Plan in Israel and Palestine,” Working Paper (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 17, 2023), https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/17/arab-peace-initiative-ii-how-arab-leadership-could-design-peace-plan-in-israel-and-palestine-pub-91047.

22 Isabel Kershner, Aaron Boxerman, and Thoma Fuller, “Netanyahu Sees No Near-Term Role for Palestinian Authority in a Postwar Gaza,” New York Times, November 12, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/12/world/middleeast/netanyahu-gaza-hamas-palestinian-authority.html; Sam Sokol, “As Politicians Argue the Future of Gaza, Netanyahu Is in No Hurry to Release a Plan,” Times of Israel, January 2, 2024, https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-politicians-argue-the-future-of-gaza-netanyahu-is-in-no-hurry-to-release-a-plan/; Jacob Magid, “Netanyahu Aide Says PM Preventing Postwar Gaza Talks to Avoid Coalition Crisis,” Times of Israel, December 30, 2023, https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-aide-says-pm-preventing-postwar-gaza-talks-to-avoid-coalition-crisis-report/.

23 Alexander B. Downes, Catastrophic Success: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong, Cornell Studies in Security Affairs (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2021).

24 Ghaith al-Omari, “How the Palestinian Authority Failed Its People,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, October 19, 2023, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/how-palestinian-authority-failed-its-people.

25 Karin Laub, “Palestinian Poll Shows a Rise in Hamas Support and Close to 90%.”

26 International Crisis Group, “Managing Palestine’s Looming Leadership Transition,” Middle East Report, February 1, 2023 (Brussels: International Crisis Group, February 1, 2023), https://icg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2023-01/238-palestines-looming-leadership-transition_0.pdf.

27 Tovah Lazaroff, “Netanyahu: I Instructed the Mossad to Act against Hamas,” Jerusalem Post, November 23, 2023, https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-774670.

28 Bassem Mroue, “Top Hamas Official Saleh Arouri Killed in Beirut Blast,” TIME, January 2, 2024, https://time.com/6551540/saleh-arouri-hamas-official-killed-beirut/.

29 Dan Raviv and Yossi Melman, “Can Targeted Assassinations Win the War for Israel?,” TIME, January 4, 2024, https://time.com/6552144/israel-assassination-hamas-strategy; ”דברי ראש המוסד דוד ברנע בלוויותו של ראש המוסד לשעבר צבי זמיר ז"ל [The words of the head of the Mossad, David Marnea, in the company of the former head of the Mossad, the late Zvi Zamir],” gov.il, January 3, 2024, https://www.gov.il/he/departments/news/spoke-zamir030123.

30 Adam Goldman, “Israel Says It Has Killed 5 Hamas Commanders,” New York Times, December 6, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/06/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-commanders-gaza-photo.html.

31 Emanuel Fabian and Gianluca Pacchiani, “IDF Estimates 3,000 Hamas Terrorists Invaded Israel in Oct. 7 Onslaught,” Times of Israel, November 1, 2023, https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-estimates-3000-hamas-terrorists-invaded-israel-in-oct-7-onslaught/.

32 Ronen Bergman, Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel’s Targeted Assassinations, trans. Ronnie Hope (New York: Random House, 2019); Patrick B. Johnston and Anoop K. Sarbahi, “The Impact of US Drone Strikes on Terrorism in Pakistan,” International Studies Quarterly 60, no. 2 (2016): 203–219, https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqv004.

33 Paul Kirby, “Turkey Detains 34 on Suspicion of Spying for Israel,” BBC News, January 2, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67861377.

34 Ibid.

35 Ronen Bergman, Rise and Kill First, 564.