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Notes
1 Joseph R. Biden, Jr. “Why America Must Lead Again: Rescuing U.S. Foreign Policy After Trump,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-23/why-america-must-lead-again.
2 Kelly A. Grieco and Jennifer Kavanagh, “America Can’t Surpass China’s Power in Asia,” Foreign Affairs, January 16, 2024, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-cant-surpass-chinas-power-asia.
3 Antony J. Blinken, “The Administration’s Approach to the People’s Republic of China,” U.S. Department of State, May 26, 2022, https://www.state.gov/the-administrations-approach-to-the-peoples-republic-of-china/.
4 Ely Ratner, “Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Dr. Ely Ratner Participates in a CNAS Discussion on Building a Networked Security Architecture in the Indo-Pacific,” U.S. Department of Defense, June 8, 2023, https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3423120/assistant-secretary-of-defense-for-indo-pacific-security-affairs-dr-ely-ratner/.
5 John C. Aquilino, Commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Prepared Statement, U.S. Military Posture and National Security Challenges in the Indo-Pacific Region: Testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, 118th Cong. (2023) https://armedservices.house.gov/sites/republicans.armedservices.house.gov/files/2023%20INDOPACOM%20Statement%20for%20the%20Record.pdf.
6 C. Todd Lopez, “Allies, Partners Central to U.S. Integrated Deterrence Effort,” U.S. Department of Defense, March 1, 2023, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3315827/allies-partners-central-to-us-integrated-deterrence-effort/; The White House, “Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States,” February 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/U.S.-Indo-Pacific-Strategy.pdf.
7 “Statement of Ely S. Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, Office of the Secretary of Defense,” National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific Region: Testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, 117th Congress, 2022, https://www.congress.gov/117/meeting/house/114487/witnesses/HHRG-117-AS00-Wstate-RatnerE-20220309.pdf.
8 Colin S. Gray, “Inescapable Geography,” Journal of Strategy Studies 22, no. 2-3 (1999): 1-11.
9 Alfred T. Mahan, The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, 1660–1783 (London: S. Low, Marston, 1890); Halford J. Mackinder, “Geographical Pivot of History,” Geographical Journal 23, no. 4 (1904): 421–437; Nicholas J. Spykman, America’s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power (New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1942); Nicholas J. Spykman and Helen R. Nicholl, The Geography of the Peace (New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1944); See also Jaehan Park, “Rethinking Geopolitics: Geography as an Aid to Statecraft,” Texas National Security Review 6, no. 4 (2003): 79-100.
10 Joseph Clark, “Growth in Partnerships Signals U.S. Success in Indo-Pacific,” DOD News, September 7, 2023, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3519047/growth-in-partnerships-signals-us-success-in-indo-pacific/.
11 John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2014), 73, 119-121.
12 Jack S. Levy and William R. Thompson, “Balancing on Land and at Sea: Do States Ally against the Leading Global Power?” International Security 35, no. 1 (2010): 7-43.
13 Erik Gartzke and Jon R. Lindsay, “The Influence of Sea Power on Politics: Domain- and Platform-Specific Attributes of Material Capabilities,” Security Studies 29, no. 4 (2020): 601-636.
14 David L. Rousseau, Democracy and war: Institutions, norms, and the evolution of international conflict (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2005).
15 Gupreet S. Khurana, “The ‘Indo-Pacific’ Concept: Retrospect and Prospect,” CIMSEC, November 14, 2017, https://cimsec.org/indo-pacific-concept-retrospect-prospect/.
16 Kenneth E. Boulding, Conflict and Defense: A General Theory (New York: Harper & Brothers, 1962); See also Patrick Porter, The Global Village Myth (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2015).
17 Aquilino, “Statement of Admiral John C. Aquilino.”
18 Kurt M. Campbell and Jake Sullivan, “Competition Without Catastrophe: How America Can Both Challenge and Coexist With China,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2019.
19 Michael J. Mazarr, Derek Grossman, Jeffrey W. Hornung, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Shawn Cochran, Ashley L. Rhoades, and Andrew Stravers, U.S. Major Combat Operations in the Indo-Pacific: Partner and Ally Views (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2023).
20 Zack Cooper and Sheena Chestnut Greitens, “Asian Allies and Partners in a Taiwan Contingency: What Should the United States Expect?” in Defending Taiwan, eds. Kori Schake and Allison Schwartz (Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, 2022).
21 Ryo Nakamura and Rurika Imahashi, “U.S. military to use Papua New Guinea naval base for 15 years,” Nikkei Asia, July 19, 2023, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/U.S.-military-to-use-Papua-New-Guinea-naval-base-for-15-years.
22 U.S. Department of Defense, “Philippines, U.S. Announce Locations of Four New EDCA Sites,” April 3, 2023; https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3349257/philippines-us-announce-locations-of-four-new-edca-sites/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20stands%20steadfastly,and%20Lal%2Dlo%20Airport%20in; James Curran, “US military presence in Australia unprecedented since WWII,” Financial Review, July 30, 2023, https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/us-military-presence-in-australia-unprecedented-since-wwii-20230730-p5dse8.
23 “Malaysia, Indonesia ‘worried and concerned’ AUKUS could lead to Asia regional arms race,” ABC News Australia, October 18, 2021, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-18/indonesia-malaysia-express-aukus-concern/100549172.
24 “Philippines tells China sites for U.S. military pact not for ‘offensive action,’” Reuters, April 10, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-tells-china-sites-us-military-pact-not-offensive-action-2023-04-10/; “Papua New Guinea won’t be base ‘for war to be launched’, says PM, after US security deal,” Guardian, May 23, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/23/papua-new-guinea-pm-james-marape-antony-blinken-us-png-defence-security-deal.
25 Antony J. Blinken, “Remarks to the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) ‘The Power and Purpose of American Diplomacy in a New Era,’” U.S. Department of State, September 13, 2023, https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-remarks-to-the-johns-hopkins-school-of-advanced-international-studies-sais-the-power-and-purpose-of-american-diplomacy-in-a-new-era/.
26 Ratner, “Statement by Ely S. Ratner.”
27 Ruth Abbey Gita-Carlos, “Marcos says Asia-Pacific won’t embrace Cold War mindset,” Philippine News Agency, January 17, 2023, https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1192858.
28 Oleg Yanovsky, “ASEAN wants economic cooperation more than military links,” Nikkei Asia, June 25, 2023, https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/ASEAN-wants-economic-cooperation-more-than-military-links.
29 Fireside Chat with Kurt Campbell, The Aspen Institute, December 2022, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzp3_UmZIKY&list=PL7fuyfNu8jfPVkCw3oQav8rljQBVd2AYV&index=4.
30 Ryo Nakamura, “Philippines to step up ties with U.S.-Japan-Australia coalition,” Nikkei Asia, June 3, 2023, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/Philippines-to-step-up-ties-with-U.S.-Japan-Australia-coalition; Trevor Hunnicutt, David Brunnstrom, and Hyonhee Shin, “US, South Korea and Japan condemn China, agree to deepen military ties,” Reuters, August 18, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/us-south-korea-japan-agree-crisis-consultations-camp-david-summit-2023-08-18/.
31 The White House, “Quad Leaders’ Joint Statement,” May 20, 2023, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/20/quad-leaders-joint-statement/; Tom Corben, Ashley Townshend, Blake Herzinger, Darshana M. Baruah, and Tomohiko Satake, Bolstering the Quad: The Case for a Collective Approach to Maritime Security (Sydney: University of Sydney, 2023).
32 Mike Mochizuki, “Japan’s Taiwan Conundrum: What Can Japan Do to Prevent War?,” Washington Quarterly 45, no. 3 (2022): 81-107.
33 James Schoff, Modernizing US-Japan Command and Control Relationships for New Challenges: NEXT Alliance Conference Summary (Washington, DC: Sasakawa USA, 2023),
34 Jim Garamone, “DOD Expert Says U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy Is Seeing Success,” DOD News, September 6, 2023, https://www.safia.hq.af.mil/IA-News/Article/3527113/dod-expert-says-us-indo-pacific-strategy-is-seeing-successes/.
35 See for example, Jeffrey Hornung, “Japan’s Play For Today: Too Much? Just Right? Or Never Enough?,” War on the Rocks, October 31, 2023, https://warontherocks.com/2023/10/japans-play-for-today-too-much-just-right-or-never-enough/; Jennifer Kavanagh, “Japan’s New Defense Budget is Still Not Enough,” Carnegie Endowment of International Peace, February 8, 2023, https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/08/japan-s-new-defense-budget-is-still-not-enough-pub-88981.
36 Adam P. Liff, “No, Japan is not planning to ‘double its defense budget,’” Brookings Institution, May 22, 2023, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/no-japan-is-not-planning-to-double-its-defense-budget/.
37 Jennifer Kavanagh, “Japan’s New Defense Budget Is Still Not Enough,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, February 8, 2023, https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/08/japan-s-new-defense-budget-is-still-not-enough-pub-88981.
38 Takahashi Kosuke, “PM Kishida Announces Japan Will Acquire 400 Tomohawk Missiles From US,” Diplomat, February 28, 2023, https://thediplomat.com/2023/02/pm-kishida-announces-japan-will-acquire-400-tomahawk-missiles-from-us/.
39 Heino Klinck, “Japan’s Defense Priorities and Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, June 23, 2023, https://www.csis.org/analysis/japans-defense-priorities-and-implications-us-japan-alliance.
40 Shinichi Hirao and Rena Sasaki, “Japan needs stronger deterrence than its new defence strategy signals,” Strategist, April 24, 2023, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/japan-needs-stronger-deterrence-than-its-new-defence-strategy-signals/.
41 Praveen Menon, “Australia to boost Pacific, defence spending in budget,” Reuters, May 9, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-boost-pacific-defence-spending-budget-2023-05-09/; Tzally Greenberg, “Australia buys Tomahawk, Spike missiles in deals worth $1.7 billion,” Defense News, August 23, 2023, https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2023/08/23/australia-buys-tomahawk-spike-missiles-in-deals-worth-17-billion/.
42 Michael J. Mazarr et al., U.S. Major Combat Operations.
43 James Massola, “Defence facing a ‘personnel crisis’ with thousands more uniformed members needed,” Sydney Morning Herald, November 14, 2022, https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/defence-facing-a-personnel-crisis-with-thousands-more-uniformed-members-needed-20221114-p5bxz7.html; Angus Grigg, Michael Reid, Dylan Welch, and Jeanavive McGregor, “Fires, floods, and maintenance delays keep Australia's submarines out of the water as navy begins 'high risk' nuclear transition,” ABC News Australia, April 30, 2023, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-01/australian-defence-submarines-aukus-collins-class/102268990.
44 Stew Magnuson, “Australia’s New Strategic Review Has Big Implications,” National Defense, May 18, 2023, https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2023/5/18/australias-new-strategic-review--has-big-implications.
45 Paul LaCamera, “Hearing to Consider the Nomination of Paul J. LaCamera, USA, for Reappointment to the Grade of General and to be Commander, United Nations Command/Combined Forces Command/United States Forces Korea,” U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, May 18, 2021, https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/21-38_05-18-2021.pdf.
46 U.S. Department of Defense, “54th Security Consultative Meeting Joint Communique,” November 3, 2022, https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3209105/54th-security-consultative-meeting-joint-communique/; Jim Garamone, “Japan, South Korea, U.S. Strengthen Trilateral Cooperation,” DOD News, August 18, 2023, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3498451/japan-south-korea-us-strengthen-trilateral-cooperation/.
47 “South Korea Unveils 2023-2027 Mid-Term Defense Plan,” Naval News, January 26, 2023, https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/01/south-korea-unveils-2023-2027-mid-term-defense-plan/; Josh Chang, Regan Copple, Madison Creery, Jack Bianchi, and Evan Braden Montgomery, “Aligning South Korea’s Defense Strategy and Capabilities,” Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, April 2021, https://csbaonline.org/uploads/documents/Aligning_ROK_Defense_Strategy_and_Capabilities_v3_Final.pdf.
48 Chung Min Lee, “South Korea’s Military Needs Bold Reforms to Overcome a Shrinking Population,” in Demographics and the Future of South Korea, eds. Chung Min Lee and Kathryn Botto (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2021); Brendan Balestrieri and Won-Geun Koo, “South Korea Needs a Wake-up Call on Its Reservist Crisis,” War on the Rocks, July 26, 2022, https://warontherocks.com/2022/07/south-korea-needs-a-wake-up-call-on-its-reservist-crisis/.
49 John J. Mearsheimer, Conventional Deterrence (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1983).
50 “Taiwan proposes record defense budget, though spending growth slows,” Japan Times, August 21, 2023, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/08/21/asia-pacific/taiwan-record-defense-budget/; Yimou Lee and Ann Wang, “Taiwan to extend conscription to one year, citing rising China threat,” Reuters, December 27, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-extend-compulsory-military-service-official-media-2022-12-27/.
51 Michael J. Lostumbo, “Taiwan-Straitjacket,” RAND Corporation, July 24, 2023, https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/07/taiwan-straitjacket.html.
52 International Institute for Strategic Studies, Military Balance+ Database, https://www.iiss.org/en/the-military-balance-plus/.
53 Sudhi Ranjan Sen, “India Military Sees Tiny Budget Rise Despite Modernization Plan,” Bloomberg, February 1, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-01/india-military-sees-tiny-budget-rise-despite-modernization-plan?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner#xj4y7vzkg.
54 John M. Donnelly, “Watershed $1 trillion defense budget on the horizon,” Roll Call, March 14, 2023, https://rollcall.com/2023/03/14/watershed-1-trillion-defense-budget-on-the-horizon/; Barry R. Posen, Restraint: A new foundation for US grand strategy (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2018); Hal Brands, “The Overstretched Superpower: Does America Have More Rivals Than It Can Handle?” Foreign Affairs January 18, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2022-01-18/overstretched-superpower.
55 Maximilian K. Bremer and Kelly A. Grieco, “In Defense of Denial: Why Deterring China Requires New Airpower Thinking,” War on the Rocks, April 3, 2023, https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/in-defense-of-denial-why-deterring-china-requires-new-airpower-thinking/.
56 Luke A. Nicastro, "U.S. Defense Infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific: Background and Issues for Congress," Congressional Research Service, June 6, 2023, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/R47589.pdf.
57 “Expeditionary Sea Base (ESB),” America’s Navy, January 21, 2021, https://www.navy.mil/Resources/Fact-Files/Display-FactFiles/Article/2169994/expeditionary-sea-base-esb/; Katie Nelson, “Army Prepositioned Stock Afloat Equipment Issued to Soldiers for Use in Salaknib 22,” U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, March 17, 2022, https://www.pacom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/2970307/army-prepositioned-stock-afloat-equipment-issued-to-soldiers-for-use-in-salakni/.
58 James Timbie and Adm. James O. Ellis Jr., “A Large Number of Small Things: A Porcupine Strategy for Taiwan,” Texas National Security Review 5, no. 1 (2021/2022): 83-93.