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Notes
1 Cabinet Secretariat, “National Security Strategy of Japan,” Provisional translation, December 2022, https://www.cas.go.jp/jp/siryou/221216anzenhoshou/nss-e.pdf; Ministry of Defense, “National Defense Strategy,” Provisional translation, December 16, 2022, https://www.mod.go.jp/j/policy/agenda/guideline/strategy/pdf/strategy_en.pdf.
2 Speech by Prime Minister Kishida to the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore, June 10, 2022. https://www.mofa.go.jp/fp/nsp/page3e_001212.html.
3 The White House, “Statement by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Japan’s Historic National Security Strategy,” December 16, 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/12/16/statement-by-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-on-japans-historic-national-security-strategy/#:~:text=The%20strategy%20sets%20forth%20the,modernize%20the%20U.S.%2DJapan%20Alliance; US Department of State, “Press Statement by Antony J. Blinken, Welcoming Japan’s New National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Buildup Program,” December 16, 2022, https://www.state.gov/welcoming-japans-new-national-security-strategy-national-defense-strategy-and-defense-buildup-program/; US Department of Defense, “Secretary of Defense Austin Statement on Japan's Release of its New Strategy Documents,” December 16, 2022, https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3248224/secretary-of-defense-austin-statement-on-japans-release-of-its-new-strategy-doc/.
4 Christopher B. Johnstone, “To Make Japan Stronger, America Must Pull it Closer,” Foreign Affairs, January 12, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/japan/make-japan-stronger-america-must-pull-it-closer; See also Adam P. Liff, “Kishida the Accelerator: Japan’s Defense Evolution after Abe,” Washington Quarterly 46, no. 1 (2023), which provides a balanced account of the change and continuity reflected in Japan’s 2022 strategic documents; and Jennifer Lind, “Japan Steps Up,” Foreign Affairs, December 23, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/japan/japan-steps.
5 Adam P. Liff and Jeffrey W. Hornung, “Japan’s New Security Policies: A Long Road to Full Implementation,” Brookings, March 27, 2023, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/japans-new-security-policies-a-long-road-to-full-implementation/; Jeffrey W. Hornung, “Japan’s Play for Today: Just Right? Too Much? Or Never Enough?,” War on the Rocks, October 31, 2023, https://warontherocks.com/2023/10/japans-play-for-today-too-much-just-right-or-never-enough/.
6 Eric Heginbotham, Samuel Leiter, and Richard J. Samuels, “Pushing on an Open Door: Japan’s Evolutionary Security Posture,” Washington Quarterly 46, no. 2 (2023).
7 Isobe Koichi, “Japan’s Perspective on Command and Control Issues in the U.S.-Japan Alliance,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 22, 2023, https://www.csis.org/analysis/japans-perspective-command-and-control-issues-japan-us-alliance; Heisei 31 nendo ikou ni kakaru bouei keikaku no taikou [National Defense Program Outline from 2018), December 18, 2018, https://www.mod.go.jp/j/policy/agenda/guideline/2019/pdf/20181218.pdf.
8 “German Chancellor Olaf Schulz Admits Uncertainty over Defense Spending,” Financial Times, November 10, 2023.
9 Ministry of Defense, Boueiryoku bapponteki kyouka no shinchoku to yosan: Reiwa rokunendo yosanan no gaiyou [Progress toward the Dramatic Strengthening of Defense Capability: Outline of the JFY 24 Budget Proposal], 6, https://www.mod.go.jp/j/budget/yosan_gaiyo/2024/yosan_20231222.pdf.
10 “Kishida: No Tax Increase in 2024 to Pay for Hike in Defense Spending,” Asahi Shimbun, October 28, 2023, https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15040886.
11 Ministry of Finance, “Japanese Public Finance Fact Sheet,” April 2023, 1, https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/budget/budget/fy2023/02.pdf.
12 Congressional Budget Office, “Defense and National Security,” accessed December 2023, https://www.cbo.gov/topics/defense-and-national-security#:~:text=About%20one%2Dsixth%20of%20federal,and%20issues%20related%20to%20veterans.
13 Author interview with Ministry of Defense official, November 14, 2023; “Boueireyoku kyouka, 43 chouen kenji, enyasu de choutatsu joushou kakaku de mo, shushou [Prime Minister: 43 trillion yen defense budget to be maintained even if yen depreciation increases procurement costs],” Kyodo News, November 27, 2023.
14 Mitsuru Obe, “Mitsubishi Heavy sees defense sales doubling to $6.7 bn by 2026,” Nikkei Asia, November 22, 2023, https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Aerospace-Defense-Industries/Mitsubishi-Heavy-sees-defense-sales-doubling-to-6.7bn-by-2026?utm_campaign=GL_JP_update&utm_medium=email&utm_source=NA_newsletter&utm_content=article_link&del_type=4&pub_date=20231123070000&seq_num=6&si=0a1eb262-3e02-4ba2-b105-a163f995c721.
15 Jeffrey D. Hornung and Christopher B. Johnstone, “Japan’s Strategic Shift is Significant, but Implementation Hurdles Await,” War on the Rocks, January 27, 2023, https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/japans-strategic-shift-is-significant-but-implementation-hurdles-await/; The seven categories are: standoff capabilities; air and missile defense; uncrewed systems; cross-domain operations including space, cyber, and electronic warfare; command, control, communications, and intelligence; mobility and lift; and sustainability.
16 Ministry of Defense, National Defense Strategy, December 2022, www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/agenda/guideline/strategy/pdf/strategy_en.pdf.
17 “Japan brings forward Tomahawk acquisition by a year,” Nikkei Asia, October 5, 2023. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/Japan-brings-forward-Tomahawk-acquisition-by-a-year.
18 Ministry of Defense, Boueiryoku bapponteki kyouka no shinchoku to yosan: Reiwa rokunendo yosanan no gaiyou [Progress toward the Dramatic Strengthening of Defense Capability: Outline of the JFY 24 Budget Proposal], 11-12.
19 Author interview with Ministry of Defense official, January 10, 2024.
20 Author interview with Ministry of Defense official, November 14, 2023.
21 Presentation by Ministry of Defense official at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 28, 2022.
22 Ministry of Defense, Boueiryoku bapponteki kyouka no shinchoku to yosan: Reiwa rokunendo yosanan no gaiyou [Progress toward the Dramatic Strengthening of Defense Capability: Outline of the JFY 24 Budget Proposal], 27; For a comparison with past budget practice, see Ministry of Defense, Waga Kuni no Bouei to Yosan: Reiwa yonnendo no gaisan youkyuu no gaiyou.
23 Rye Nemoto, “Japan nears plan for ammo storage network closer to Taiwan,” Nikkei Asia, January 7, 2023, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Taiwan-tensions/Japan-nears-plan-for-ammo-storage-network-closer-to-Taiwan; Rye Nemoto, “Japan to expand fuel and ammo storage on islands near Taiwan: defense chief,” Nikkei Asia, September 6, 2022, https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Japan-to-expand-fuel-and-ammo-storage-on-islands-near-Taiwan-defense-chief.
24 US Embassy & Consulates in Japan, “Joint Statement of the Security Consultative Committee (2+2),” January 11, 2023, https://jp.usembassy.gov/joint-statement-security-consultative-committee-2plus2/.
25 Author interview with Japanese government official, September 25, 2023.
26 Hornung, “Japan’s Play for Today: Just Right? Too Much? Or Never Enough?.”
27 Marcus Weisgerber, “Air Force Must Harden Bases Against Missile, Secretary Says,” Defense One, January 19, 2022, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/01/air-force-must-harden-pacific-bases-against-missiles-secretary-says/360924/.
28 Trent Scott and Andrew Shearer, “Building Allied Interoperability in the Indo-Pacific Region, Discussion Paper Two: A Case Study in Command and Control for the Japanese Self Defense Forces,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 2017, https://www.csis.org/analysis/building-allied-interoperability-indo-pacific-region-discussion-paper-2.
29 Author interview with a senior Japanese defense official, October 20, 2023; See also Ministry of Defense, Boueiryoku bapponteki kyouka no shinchoku to yosan: Reiwa rokunendo yosanan no gaiyou, p. 10. www.mod.go.jp/j/budget/yosan_gaiyo/2024/yosan_20231222.pdf.
30 Christopher Johnstone and Jim Schoff, “A Vital Next Step for the U.S.-Japan Alliance: Command and Control Modernization,” CSIS, February 1, 2024, https://www.csis.org/analysis/vital-next-step-us-japan-alliance-command-and-control-modernization.
31 Christopher B. Johnstone and Zack Cooper, “Getting U.S.-Japanese Command and Control Right,” War on the Rocks, June 28, 2023, https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/getting-u-s-japanese-command-and-control-right/.
32 James Schoff, “Modernizing U.S.-Japan Command and Control Relationships for New Challenges: NEXT Alliance Conference Summary, Tokyo 2023,” Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA, June 1, 2023; The January 2023 “2+2” Joint Statement commits the two sides to “exploring more effective Alliance command and control relationships to enhance interoperability and responsiveness.”
33 Author interviews with MOD officials in March and April 2023.
34 Japan National Security Strategy, December 2022, www.cas.go.jp/jp/siryou/221216anzenhoshou/nss-e.pdf.
35 Ellen Nakashima, “China Hacked Japan’s Sensitive Defense Networks, Officials Say,” Washington Post, August 8, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/07/china-japan-hack-pentagon/.
36 Ministry of Defense, “Defense Buildup Program,” December 22, 2022 (provisional government translation), https://www.mod.go.jp/j/policy/agenda/guideline/plan/pdf/program_en.pdf.
37 Briefing received, “JMOD’s Efforts to Ensure Cybersecurity,” spring 2023.
38 Comments of a senior LDP elected official at the Mt. Fuji Dialogue, October 22, 2023.
39 サイバー法整備、24年通常国会は見送り論 薄い危機感 - 日本経済新聞 (nikkei.com), (“A weak sense of crisis may delay cyber legislation beyond the 2024 regular Diet session),” November 23, 2023.
40 Takahashi Kyosuke, “MHI is Riding the Wave of Japan’s Boom in Defense Spending,” Diplomat, November 23, 2023, https://thediplomat.com/2023/11/mhi-is-riding-the-wave-of-japans-boom-in-defense-spending/#:~:text=In%20contrast%2C%20in%20Japan%2C%20even,of%20the%20company's%20total%20sales.
41 See, for example, Junnosuke Kobara, Konatsu Ochi, and Natsumi Kawasaki, “Japan’s Defense Industry on the Ropes Amid Growing Threats,” Nikkei Asia, January 12, 2022, https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/Japan-s-defense-industry-on-the-ropes-amid-growing-threats; Rye Nemoto, “Japan to help defense industry tailor exports, eyeing security ties, Nikkei Asia, February 11, 2023, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/Japan-to-help-defense-industry-tailor-exports-eyeing-security-ties.
42 Briefing received from the Ministry of Defense: “Subjects of Defense Industry and Fundamental Strengthening Measures,” February 2022.
43 Ministry of Defense, Boueiryoku bapponteki kyouka no shimpo to yosan: Reiwa rokunendo gaisan youkyuu no gaiyou, 37.
44 “Kokuryoku to Boueireyoku wo sougouteki ni kangaeru yuushikisha kaigi: houkokusho [Report of the Experts Committee on Considering National Power and Military Power Comprehensively,]” November 22, 2022.
45 See, for example, “Delay in concluding debate on defense exports could impact fighter program,” Sankei Shimbun, December 8, 2023, https://sankei.com/article/20231208-2DKYDOBX6BI43KNHXYB6FKJWIA/.