Predicting the NSE stock index trends considering global financial variables and ARIMA model

Abstract

With the advent of technology and advancements in storage capacities, one can get the historical data for any of the major stock markets of the world. In the last few decades, the Indian stock market grew very fast. The investment capacity and frequency for Indian stock markets increased drastically recently. More and more people are investing in stock markets and mutual funds nowadays and as a result of that there have been numerous attempts to forecast the stock market index so as to gain maximum profit. The proposed work forecasts the opening value of the National Stock Exchange index using the ARIMA model.

Subject Classification:

• 86A32
• 97K40

Keywords:

• Auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
• Forecasting
• Stock market index
• Statistics
• Dickey-Fuller test