Elite strategy in resilient authoritarianism: Equatorial Guinea, 1979–2023

ABSTRACT

The Equatoguinean dictatorship under Teodoro Obiang Nguema has spanned forty-four years, making him the longest-serving current head of state. Since his entry to power through a 1979 coup, Obiang has evolved in his style of governance. First ruling through a military junta, then a single-party regime, and finally competitive authoritarianism. Across these eras, he has relied on a cadre of supporting elites to occupy top spots in the state administration. Has his strategy of retaining and dismissing these top elites evolved with his broader style of governance? What features has he looked for over time to signal loyalty? We explore these questions using original individual-level data on all ruling elites in Equatorial Guinea from 1979 to 2023. Drawing on a suite of biographical variables, we find evidence that certain professional and personal traits have made elites less likely to be dismissed at different eras of Obiang’s rule. However, co-regionality has been an enduring preference in his elite strategy, suggesting his preference for friends from “back home.” These findings demonstrate how elite strategies of dictators move beyond the ethnocentric and evolve alongside broader regime characteristics.

KEYWORDS:

• Autocracy
• African politics
• elites
• Equatorial Guinea
• ethnic politics
• competitive authoritarianism

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank: Josimar Oyono Eseng for his expertise and contributions to reviewing our data sample; the African Politics Research Group for providing feedback on an earlier version of this paper, particularly Michael Aeby and Sara Rich Dorman; and the reviewers and editors of the journal for their valuable feedback and consideration.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

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32 Campos, “The Decolonization of Equatorial Guinea,” 102.

33 Ibid., 101–2.

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35 Ndongo, Historia y Tragedia de Guinea Ecuatorial, 131; Nerín, La Última Selva de España, 151.

36 Jensen, “Tyranny, Communism, and U.S. Policy in Equatorial Guinea, 1968–1979.”

37 Campos, “The Decolonization of Equatorial Guinea.”

38 Fegley, “The U.N. Human Rights Commission”; LeMelle and Ibongo, “The Liberation of Spanish Guinea.”

39 Ndongo, Historia y Tragedia de Guinea Ecuatorial, 213–14.

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41 Sundiata, “The Roots of African Despotism: The Question of Political Culture,” 18.

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43 Baynham, “Politics and Power in Equatorial Guinea”; Sundiata, “The Roots of African Despotism.”

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48 Sá and Rodrigues Sanches, “The Politics of Autocratic Survival in Equatorial Guinea.”

49 Lininger-Goumaz, Who’s Who de La Dictature de Guinée Équatoriale, 22; ibid., 322.

50 Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, 2022 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices.

51 Lindberg, Democracy and Elections in Africa, 126.

52 Nse and Micó, “La Oposición Guineana Entre Dos ‘Diálogos Nacionales’ (1993–2014),” 418.

53 Ibid.

54 Sá and Rodrigues Sanches, “The Politics of Autocratic Survival in Equatorial Guinea.”

55 Lininger-Goumaz, Who’s Who de La Dictature de Guinée Équatoriale, 20–30.

56 Sá and Rodrigues Sanches, “The Politics of Autocratic Survival in Equatorial Guinea,” 83.

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58 Meng, Constraining Dictatorships; Wright, “The Latent Characteristics That Structure Autocratic Rule.”

59 Cheeseman, “The Internal Dynamics of Power-Sharing in Africa”; Osei, “Like Father, Like Son?”

60 Sudduth, “Strategic Logic of Elite Purges in Dictatorships.”

61 Goldring and Matthews, “To Purge or Not to Purge.”

62 De Bruin, How to Prevent Coups d’état; Sudduth, “Purging Militaries.”

63 Baynham, “Equatorial Guinea.”

64 Either reshuffle or regime change coups, depending on the level of personalism that was observed at the time of the dispute (Chin et al. 2022).

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70 Harkness, When Soldiers Rebel; Hassan, Regime Threats and State Solutions.

71 Raleigh and Wigmore-Shepherd, “Elite Coalitions and Power Balance across African Regimes.”

72 Baker, Scarritt, and Mozaffar, “Ethnopolitical Demography and Democracy in Sub-Saharan Africa”; Beiser-McGrath and Metternich, “Ethnic Coalitions and the Logic of Political Survival in Authoritarian Regimes”; Francois, Rainer, and Trebbi, “How is Power Shared in Africa”; Green, “The Politics of Ethnic Identity in Sub-Saharan Africa”; Osei and Malang, “Party, Ethnicity, or Region?”

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77 Daloz, “‘Big Men’ in Sub-Saharan Africa”; Raleigh and Wigmore-Shepherd, “Elite Coalitions and Power Balance across African Regimes.”

78 Osei and Malang, “Party, Ethnicity, or Region?”

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81 Lininger-Goumaz, Who’s Who de La Dictature de Guinée Équatoriale, 119.

82 Sá, “African Intellectuals and Cultural Diversity”; Sá and Rodrigues Sanches, “The Politics of Autocratic Survival in Equatorial Guinea.”

83 Goldring and Matthews, “To Purge or Not to Purge.”

84 Taking a strict institutional approach to qualifying “elite” status can potentially omit significant individuals who hold offices outside the ruling institution, such as at the top of the military or in key economic firms Sudduth, “Purging Militaries: Introducing the Military Purges in Dictatorships (MPD) Dataset.” However, decision rules based on institutional membership allows us to pursue a firm definition of elite status that can be applied across time, rather than qualitatively assessing hundreds of potentially significant persons each year.

85 Artucio, “The Trial of Macias in Equatorial Guinea.”

86 Finer, The Man on Horseback.

87 Lininger-Goumaz, Small is Not Always Beautiful.

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92 Lininger-Goumaz, Who’s Who de La Dictature de Guinée Équatoriale.

93 Bokobza et al., “The Morning After”; Indridason, “Competition & Turnout.”

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96 Sá and Rodrigues Sanches, “The Politics of Autocratic Survival in Equatorial Guinea,” 86.

97 Okenve, “They Never Finished Their Journey,” 262.

98 Aixelà, “Of Colonists, Migrants and National Identity.”

99 Sá and Rodrigues Sanches, “The Politics of Autocratic Survival in Equatorial Guinea.”

100 Liniger-Goumaz, Who’s Who de la Dictature de Guinée Equatoriale.

101 A few remaining regional origins were also verified in consultation with an Equatoguinean expert.

102 Sá and Sanches, “The Politics of Autocratic Survival in Equatorial Guinea,” 88–89.

103 Sudduth, “Strategic Logic of Elite Purges in Dictatorships.”

104 Nyrup and Bramwell, “Who Governs?”

105 Charles, “Gender and Politics in Contemporary Haiti.”

106 Barnes and O’Brien, “Defending the Realm.”

107 Nyrup, Yamagishi, and Bramwell, “Figurines and Doyennes.”

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109 Reuters Staff, “Equatorial Guinea Appoints its First Female Prime Minister.”

110 Martino, “El Caso Teodorín (Parte I),” 9–10.

111 Sá, “African Intellectuals and Cultural Diversity,” 115–16.

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113 Gerschewski, “The Three Pillars of Stability.”

114 Hughes, “Democracy and Imperial Rivalry in Equatorial Guinea.”

115 Goldring and Matthews, “Brothers in Arms No Longer.”

116 Martino, “El Caso Teodorín (Parte I).”

117 Harkness, When Soldiers Rebel; Hassan, Regime Threats and State Solutions.

118 Robinson, “Ethnic Diversity, Segregation and Ethnocentric Trust in Africa.”

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Austin S. Matthews

Austin S. Matthews is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at East Carolina University. His research focuses on authoritarian systems, elite politics, and regime change.

Ana Lúcia Sá

Ana Lúcia Sá is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science and Public Policy and a researcher at the Centre for International Studies at Iscte – University Institute of Lisbon. Her research focuses on authoritarianism, political elites, and political participation in Portuguese-speaking African countries.