Fraternisation and repression during the 2020–2021 attempted revolution in Belarus

ABSTRACT

Through adoption of Video Data Analysis (VDA), this study analyses the 2020–2021 revolutionary attempt in Belarus which featured the largest protests in the country's post-communist history. This study asks why state repression and violence broke out in some instances and interactions, but not in others? I analyse events that took place between activists and state forces through a sample of video data featuring 144 different cases including verbal interactions between protesters and authorities; fraternisation, and whether or not activists were able to strike a positive dialogue with police or security forces. These variables are statistically analysed with relation to whether authorities repressed protesters or if they successfully managed to put crowds under control. Results reveal that fraternisation and the establishment of a positive dialogue between protesters and state forces are negatively correlated with occurrences of state repression, which yields new insight into the micro-dynamics of repression and dissent.

KEYWORDS:

• State repression
• revolution
• uprisings
• violence
• video data analysis

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 While both actors are utilised by the regime to respond to mass dissent, there is a general distinction between these two forces which can be observed primarily in their specialisations. The police typically handle everyday law enforcement and public safety issues, while the Omon tend to be called on to respond to more threatening incidents which may include threatening protests, high-risk law enforcement tasks, dealing with armed criminals, and the conduction of potential counter-terrorism operations.

2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgvV2yH97ts

3 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xz7rZVhPJQA

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Alexei Anisin

Alexei Anisin, Ph.D., is the Dean of the School of International Relations and Diplomacy at the Anglo-American University in Prague, Czech Republic. The author of five monographs and over 30 scientifically indexed studies, Dr. Anisin has carried out qualitative and quantitative inquiries on political instability, rare forms of violence, homicide, and on international politics and historical change.