Deadly consequences: lessons from the evolution of terrorist attacks against United States diplomats

ABSTRACT

This article sheds light on the complex relationship between adaptive terrorist behaviours and U.S. diplomacy by investigating the interplay between diplomatic security reform and terrorist target selection. A longitudinal study (1970–2019) of 555 terrorist attacks against U.S. diplomats suggests that terrorists targeted U.S. diplomats between 1970 and 1998 because they were perceived as soft, yet symbolic, targets. In response to increasing attacks on diplomats, the U.S. began improving diplomatic security, but an inability to grasp how terrorists operate caused this process to be inefficient and flawed. Terrorists, in turn, exploited these security conditions for decades until, after the deadliest series of coordinated attacks against U.S. diplomats occurred in 1998, security improved to a level where diplomats were no longer a viable target. The findings underscore the critical role of security enhancements and lessons learned in deterring terrorists, emphasising the need for effective intelligence systems and policies. The analysis therefore has numerous implications for understanding how we can learn from our inaction and demonstrates how we should use our understanding of terrorist rationality to predict tomorrow’s terrorist threats.

KEYWORDS:

• Terrorism
• diplomacy
• diplomatic security
• tactical adaptation
• intelligence

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to graciously acknowledge the funding and support provided by Loyola University Chicago’s Center for Engaged Learning, Teaching, and Scholarship (CELTS).

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Attack counts from the GTD include both successfully executed attacks as well as attacks that were attempted but not successful. Additionally, prior to moving to an all-online database, the 1970–1997 GTD data consisted of hard-copy index cards. When START began working to code data electronically, the set of cards for 1993 was lost. Therefore, 1993 data is omitted from the analysis.

2 Figure 3 demonstrates that terrorist attacks against U.S. diplomats declined after the beginning of the 1990s. Figure 3 and Table 3 also show, however, that the number of attacks in the decade remained notable each year until the end of the decade. The decline can be largely attributed to the trend of terrorism overall throughout the 1990s. Figure 1 shows that the number of terrorist attacks worldwide saw a significant decrease after the start of the 1990s. The decline in attacks against U.S. diplomats seen in Figure 3 reflects this decline. This overall decline was influenced by the changing world order following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and its specific causes are beyond the scope of this paper. The important thing is that the decline was not unique to attacks against U.S. diplomats but rather a terrorism-wide phenomenon at a time when terrorist attacks against U.S. diplomats were still following the general trends of terrorist attacks overall.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Loyola University Chicago, Center for Engaged Learning, Teaching, and Scholarship (CELTS).