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Research Article

Contextualising Antarctic tourism diversification: tourism management implications from multinational policy debates

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ABSTRACT

Beyond the growth in tourist numbers, tourism in the Antarctic has been rapidly diversifying over the last decades. This paper examines Antarctic tourism policy documents from 1961 to 2022 while exploring Antarctic tourism diversification’s historical development and current state. The paper frames Antarctic tourism diversification, clarifying its dimensions, expressed concerns, and suggested policy options for tourism management and regulation. The results reveal that policy discussions were often not aligned with the practice of tourism in the Antarctic, indicating a lack of a comprehensive understanding of its extent and dimensions. While Treaty Parties have long recognized and voiced several concerns over tourism diversification, they have achieved little progress toward regulation and concrete management actions. Market-based processes and policy indecisiveness, including inaction, strongly influence diversification processes. Given tourism’s increasing importance and potential effects, a structural understanding of tourism diversification, its ramifications, processes, and policy relationships is essential to proactively shape Antarctic tourism governance.

Introduction

This paper explores and clarifies the development, current state, and framing of Antarctic tourism diversification while examining Antarctic policy discussions, expressed concerns, and suggested options for tourism management. Antarctica has become an increasingly popular destination in tandem with the growth of international tourism worldwide. According to the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO), in the 2022/23 season, more than 104,000 documented visitors reached the continent,Footnote1 not including staff, scientists, and non-IAATO expeditions. Besides the growth in numbers, tourism has diversified from small boat trips to cruises, airborne operations, luxurious camping, and a diverse range of activities, including snorkelling, stand-up paddling, skydiving, and marathons.Footnote2

The Antarctic is a unique setting for tourism, not only because of its extraordinary natural environments. The region lacks the undisputed territorial sovereignty of a state and does not have an Indigenous population. The Antarctic Treaty,Footnote3 applied to the area south of 60°S latitude and signed in 1959, devoted Antarctica as a place for peace and science, promoting international scientific cooperation and freezing all territorial claims. Currently, 56 countries are Parties to the Treaty, comprising 29 Consultative Parties with decision-making power and 27 Non-Consultative Parties who may contribute to the discussions but do not formally participate in the decision-making.Footnote4 Representatives from all Parties, along with Observers and Invited Expert representatives, are invited annually to discuss relevant issues at the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM).Footnote5 At the ATCM, Measures (legally binding) and Decisions and Resolutions (not legally binding) may be adopted on a consensus-based approach, providing regulations and procedures for managing the Treaty area.Footnote6 Before 1995, this division did not exist, and measures taken at ATCMs were referred to as Recommendations.Footnote7

The Treaty and its related agreements are collectively known as the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS).Footnote8 Highly relevant to tourism, the Protocol on Environmental Protection,Footnote9 adopted in 1991, aims for the comprehensive ‘protection of the Antarctic environment and dependent and associated ecosystems’.Footnote10 The Protocol provides a regulatory framework for almost all human activity in the region; therefore, tourism activities under the jurisdiction of the Contracting Parties to the Protocol are subjected to its provisions.

Most of the day-to-day conduct of tourism operations is done by the tour operators themselves through IAATO, a self-regulating tourism body founded in 1991. IAATO represents the tourism sector at ATCMs and significantly contributes to monitoring activities and implementing guidelines, best practices, and operational procedures for its members. Over the years, IAATO has grown to 109 members.Footnote11 However, membership is not mandatory, establishing a ‘free-rider’ risk: operations by actors unwilling to be conditioned or restricted by IAATO self-regulation.

Tourism has been discussed at many ATCMs since 1966 and at all ATCMs since the adoption of the Protocol.Footnote12 Tourism has additionally been the subject of two Antarctic Treaty Meetings of Experts (ATME). Discussions related to tourism diversification have thus permeated the policy forums for the last decades.

Although tourism activities remain spatiotemporally concentrated in the Antarctic Peninsula, several studies have already referred to the diversification of Antarctic tourism. Bastmeijer,Footnote13 20 years ago, observed the rapid increase in the diversity of tourist activities, while Murray and JabourFootnote14 examined independent expeditions. Liggett et al.Footnote15 investigated diversification concerns from Antarctic tourism stakeholders, followed by Lamers and Gelter,Footnote16 who explored diversification implications using scuba diving as a case study. Concomitantly, a range of activities have been identifiedFootnote17 alongside observed variations in visitor nationalities,Footnote18 tourism operators and their interests,Footnote19 and trip lengths.Footnote20

In addition to potential environmental impacts,Footnote21 tourism may affect the values and principles of the ATS,Footnote22 interfere with other Antarctic activities,Footnote23 and raise geopolitical considerations.Footnote24 Yet, Antarctic tourism management presents a unique set of challenges, chiefly due to its complex legal framework and the absence of a local community benefiting from the activity. Management options may range from a strong conservation imperativeFootnote25 to employing site-specific and regional adaptive management models,Footnote26 relying on robust self-regulation,Footnote27 or even allowing market dynamics to proceed without intervention.

Even though some note that the ATS has been regarded as one of the most successful examples of international governance,Footnote28 there ‘appears to be an increasing mismatch between the nature and capacity of the present ATS and global realities, including in relation to the process and consequences of globalization’,Footnote29 of which tourism represents a sizeable portion. Decisions are often driven by ‘non-decision-making’Footnote30 processes, where the absence of consensus effectively results in implicit decisions. By not prohibiting one activity, for example, an implicit decision is made that the activity is allowed as long as it follows the existing regulations.Footnote31 Yet, several authors have repeatedly voiced the importance of a proactive approach to setting policies and managing Antarctic tourism.Footnote32

Given Antarctic tourism’s increasing volume and potential impacts, a more structural understanding of and attention to tourism diversification is essential in further informing tourism governance. In summary, this study assesses Antarctic tourism diversification by (a) outlining policy discussions and tourism developments over time, (b) conceptualising Antarctic tourism diversification and its dimensions, (c) investigating existing policy concerns, (d) identifying proposed policies and instruments, and (e) discussing potential implications for Antarctic tourism governance and management.

Literature review

Tourism and product diversification

Diversification is not a novel concept, having received extensive attention in economics, business, and marketing. Ansoff’s seminal work introduced a matrix delineating four business growth strategies combining markets and products.Footnote33 The final quadrant, diversification, entails developing new products and services for new markets.Footnote34 Businesses typically use this strategy to utilise previously unexploited resources, enter new segments, or recover from unprofitable products or services.Footnote35

In tourism, diversification can occur across sectors, at the regional level, or at the product and market level.Footnote36 Diversification enhances destination competitiveness by introducing new products and experiences, which can either complement or differ from existing offerings, expanding prospects for customised services and granting flexibility to adapt to changing demands.Footnote37 Diversification within the tourism context often incorporates both product and market development,Footnote38 being used as a strategy not only to increase profits and generate competitive advantageFootnote39 but also to develop more sustainable forms of tourism.Footnote40 Tourism diversification has been presented, for example, as a policy tool for economic developmentFootnote41 and as a strategy to relieve strains on other tourism products, such as wildlife tours.Footnote42

However, tourism diversification can also create confusion regarding destination image, as unique qualities that make a destination stand out get diffused.Footnote43 Additionally, it can add extra stress to unexploited or already strained resources.Footnote44 Finally, tourism diversification is frequently characterised by uncoordinated individual market-based decisions instead of coordinated destination-level policies and market interventions.Footnote45

Tourism diversification is driven not only by the increased competition and appetite for profit from the supply side but also by changes in travel motivations from the demand side. Ek et al.Footnote46 describe a ‘performance turn’ that has shifted tourism in recent decades. The authors claim that the consumption of places has expanded from the romantic ‘tourist gaze’Footnote47 to consumption in multisensory ways involving bodily sensations, active physical engagements, and corporeal proximity premised on tourists now having an active and dynamic role in the tourism experience production. Moreover, BaumanFootnote48 asserted that tourists always search for novel and untried experiences, moving from one pleasurable sensation to another. Tourism and diversification from the demand side under the terms of performance thereby tap into the libidinal economy of desire, allowing for a nigh limitless expansion of touristic experience possibilities. As demand and supply cannot be separated, the globally expanding tourism industry more strongly emphasises ever-greater variety, flexibility, and differentiation of products and services to meet the desires of the potential visitor.Footnote49

Policy issues and wicked problems

Policy issues often involve a highly complex set of elements, including an extensive array of actors with potentially different values and interests, perceptions of the situation, and policy preferences, engaged in technical disputes over the severity of issues and their causes.Footnote50 Moreover, policy compromises governance action and inaction, ranging from direct interventions to allowing self-regulation and refraining from interfering with market forces.Footnote51

Rittel and WebberFootnote52 stated that nearly all public policy issues could be considered ‘wicked’ problems, relying on political judgement for resolution. The authors characterised those by 10 features, including no clear definition, no opportunity for trial and error, and no stopping rule, meaning there are no criteria to determine when a solution is final. More recently, Alford and Head remarked that wicked problems are ‘where neither the problems nor the solutions are known, and where both relevant knowledge and interests are fragmented – and this situation will be even more intractable if key conflicting knowledge-holders also have substantial power’.Footnote53

Modern social problems involve not only disagreements about appropriate courses of action but also contesting opinions about the nature of the problemsFootnote54 and ‘about the values or principles that should guide improvements’.Footnote55 Failures and unintended outcomes are likely to prevail if problems are not adequately identified and scoped, are constantly changing, and if the proposed solutions only address the problem’s symptoms instead of its underlying causes.Footnote56 Awareness that a particular problem is wicked can clarify why problem-solving and decision-making have failed or are likely to fail and promote new ways forward, cognisant that ‘we do not so much solve wicked problems as make progress towards improving them or towards better managing them’.Footnote57

According to Head, ‘understanding how policy “problems” are conceptualised, prioritised and contested provides a solid platform for understanding the dynamics of policy debate, decision-making and policy change’.Footnote58 Additionally, in global institutions, agenda-setting or decision-making ‘is extremely fluid not only because of (mostly) rotating participation but also because of significant variability in problem definitions and focusing events’.Footnote59 Investigating problem definition and problem framing becomes noteworthy, as how a problem is defined is closely tied to the type of solution proposed.Footnote60

Methods

A content analysis of policy documents was conducted to determine how Antarctic tourism diversification has been discussed. This method allows for systematic organisation and pattern finding,Footnote61 similarly employed in past tourism studies, for instance, to track the evolution of sustainable tourism discourse in policy documentsFootnote62 or to understand policy development through its historical institutional context.Footnote63

To establish patterns in how tourism diversification has been addressed, documents from 1961 to 2022 were analysed. The main body of analysis compromised the Final Reports of the (a) ATCMs (1961–2022), including CEPs (Committee for Environmental Protection) (1991–2022), (b) Special Consultative Meetings (SATCM) (1977–2000) and (c) ATMEs on tourism and non-governmental activities (2004) and on shipborne tourism (2009). Working papers (WPs) and information papers (IPs) submitted by Parties, Observers, and Experts were also reviewed if they were linked to Intersessional Contact Group (ICG) discussions or provided insights into tourism status (e.g. IAATO statistics). Finally, adopted Decisions, Measures, Recommendations, and Resolutions related to tourism were examined. These consisted of a total of 167 documents, detailed in the Supplementary Material, and retrieved from the Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty websiteFootnote64 with full and unrestricted access.

Overall, the content analysis focused on (1) the problem identification process and framing, (2) concerns raised, (3) policy options and instruments proposed, and whether those had been adopted. Inductive coding was used to create data-grounded categories,Footnote65 ensuring close alignment with the original data extracted from the policy discussions. Initial codes, primarily overly inclusive, were refined iteratively for consolidation and consistency, resulting in a hierarchical code structure. This structure included central codes representing the main dimensions contributing to the diversification of Antarctic tourism, with subsidiary codes elaborating on ramifications and concerns. A final set of codes involved numerical coding, addressing proposed policy options and their progression. ATLAS.ti software (version 22.2.5.0) was utilised to enhance efficiency and organisation.

Other resources, such as literature, brochures, media, and online information, enhanced the analysis and contextualised Antarctic tourism practices. Yet, information on early and novel developments, particularly private expeditions, can be challenging to retrieve. Thus, this paper does not aim to provide an exhaustive account of all developments but to capture the extent of Antarctic tourism diversification and the alignment between policy discussions and tourism practice.

Some limitations warrant acknowledgement. First, this study does not include further considerations described in other documents, discussions not directly related to tourism, or IAATO policies and guidelines. Second, the analysis was limited to the written content of the documents, serving only as a representation of the historical institutional context.Footnote66 Consequently, it does not include the Parties’ further views on tourism diversification. Third, efforts were made to identify key actors and points of tension in the diversification narrative. However, the language employed in the Final Reports often omits specific Parties’ names, using terms like ‘some’ or ‘several’ Parties or ‘one Party’. Likewise, specific issues, such as disagreements over particular words or definitions, were sometimes mentioned but not fully elaborated upon. Despite efforts to explore such contentions, a complete account was not consistently possible.

Results

Framing Antarctic tourism diversification

Contextualisation: Antarctic tourism diversification

This section provides an overview of the policy discussions on tourism diversification, complemented by a timeline of tourism developments until 2022. These are intended to illustrate the problem identification process and pinpoint shifts in the focus of the discussions.

1950–1980: the early years of commercial tourism

Commercial tourism to the Antarctic began in the late 1950s with visits on naval vessels resupplying research stations,Footnote67 followed by the first tourist flight in 1956Footnote68 and private yacht visits recorded in the 1960s.Footnote69 What is regarded as the modern era of Antarctic tourism started in the late 1960s,Footnote70 with the Lindblad Explorer becoming the first ice-strengthened vessel explicitly made to take fare-paying passengers to the Antarctic,Footnote71 applying the integrated formula of exploration cruising and shore excursions coupled with education.Footnote72 Small inflatable boats enhanced wildlife viewing and expanded tourist access to otherwise inaccessible locations.Footnote73

From the first ATCM in 1961 until the 1970s, the sporadic tourism debates focused on research station visits and tourism effects on scientific programmes and the environment. ReichFootnote74 provides an overview of tourism developments by the 1980s. According to the author, mountain climbing has attracted visitors since the 1966/67 season, both under the auspices of research programmes or under independently organised tourism parties, while overflights without landing started by the 1976/77 season, further marked by the 1979 Mount Erebus fatality.Footnote75 Various groups, including artists, filmmakers, mountaineers, and media representatives, became regular visitors, so ‘the stereotyped image of a tourist as purely a camera-decked pleasure-seeking holidaymaker should therefore be expanded to become a multiple collection of visitors’.Footnote76

1981–1990: the early years of land-based adventure tourism

In 1983, ATCM discussions lacked consensus on where to place responsibility for non-governmental expeditions,Footnote77 while in 1985, Germany noted that earlier recommendations ‘responded to developments as they had occurred’.Footnote78 That same year, Antarctica’s first land-based tour operator, known nowadays as Antarctic Logistics & Expeditions (ALE), was founded. The company was established after an organised ascent to Mount Vinson, as the group intended to be ‘the first to scale the Seven Summits, the highest peak on all seven continents’.Footnote79 Within five years of existence, ALE was responsible for many other ‘firsts’: the first tourist flight to the South Pole, the first guided ski expedition to the South Pole, and the first continent crossing on foot, opening up ‘the heart of Antarctica to expeditions’.Footnote80

The development of land-based tourism is innately related to the upsurge and expansion of tourist semi-permanent facilities and camping grounds, as tourism in Antarctica’s interior requires overnight accommodation. Further, the range of activities inland could be expanded from water-based to land-based developments, such as skiing, mountain climbing, and trekking. By 1987, several delegations expressed concern that existing tourism measures were complex and inadequate, containing significant information gaps, especially concerning small private expeditions.Footnote81

1991–1998: early tourism expansion

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian icebreakers became widely available for polar tourist transport, leading to a significant tourism expansion in the Arctic and Antarctic regions.Footnote82 Commercial helicopter tours began to be offered,Footnote83 and two important events also happened in 1991: IAATO was founded, and the Protocol was signed, leading to more substantial tourism discussions. Tourism diversification was explicitly brought to the ATCM’s attention by ASOC,Footnote84 who provided a compilation of non-governmental undertakings and expressed concern about ‘the diversity of the above activities, which include both commercial and non-commercial ventures’.Footnote85

During the 1993/94 season, tourists outnumbered scientists for the first time.Footnote86 Even after recognising the need to take action, it was agreed ‘that the objective at this Meeting was not to create new rules and regulations but to provide guidance to those visiting Antarctica and those organising and conducting tourism and non-governmental activities’.Footnote87 Not long after, the first marathon and half-marathon took place in Antarctica.Footnote88

By 1996, increased visitations at remote sites in Antarctica’s interior were noted,Footnote89 and a standard post-visit report (PVR) form was implemented the following year.Footnote90 The trial report form contained only eight codes for site activities.Footnote91 Nevertheless, the range of tourist activities offered was continuously expanding. In 1997, the first attempt at skydiving over the South Pole resulted in a tragedy.Footnote92 During the 1998/99 season, 24 tourists scuba dived, about 10 joined sea kayaking, and eight participated in a surfing expedition, while snorkelling was also offered.Footnote93

1999–2001: the millennium boom

The 1999/2000 season witnessed a considerable peak in visits due to the millennium approaching and the introduction of large cruise-only trips. This development contradicted IAATO’s 1997 prediction that ‘large cruise lines will not enter the market. None of the world cruise lines contacted expressed interest in future Antarctic voyages due to operational and marketing considerations’.Footnote94 The season peaked at nearly 15,000 tourists that could join ‘kayaking, mountain climbing, scuba diving, surfing, skiing, snowboarding, camping, parachuting and marathon running’.Footnote95 After the season, IAATO reported a ‘current trend towards the diversification of activities’Footnote96 and the ‘possible expansion of IAATO to accommodate the diversification of adventure type tourism’,Footnote97 although clarifications were not further developed.

Apart from commercial tours, several novel activities involving ‘firsts’ were recorded between 1999/2001. These include the first Antarctic motorcycle ride,Footnote98 the first hot air balloon flight at the South Pole,Footnote99 and the first unsupported snow kite Antarctic crossing.Footnote100

In 2001, tourism debates substantially focused on diversification, with the ATCM recognising ‘an increase in the diversity of tourism activities, which may present new management challenges’.Footnote101 IAATO illustrated, for the first time, all types of potential tourist activities to ‘better represent the diversification of the industry’,Footnote102 sorting them between modes of transport, location, and membership.Footnote103 IAATO also claimed being ‘pressured by the tourism industry and by several of the Antarctic Treaty Parties to find a way to be more inclusive of all forms of tourism’.Footnote104

2002–2011: changing focus on tourism diversification

In 2002 and 2003, particular interest was taken in adventure tourism. All Parties agreed on the challenges posed by increasing flight connections and new developments ‘such as high-risk (adventure) tourism’.Footnote105 After suggestions to differentiate commercial and adventure tourism and debate ‘on what should be meant by “adventure tourism”’,Footnote106 a contact group led by Spain was formed to discuss the concept. The group conveyed that ‘some delegations considered … extremely difficult to draw a distinction between what might be considered adventure tourism or tourism in general’Footnote107 but reported that some attributes included high risk and participant autonomy, with implications to human safety and environmental impact.Footnote108 Fly-sail operations started being offered, allowing tourists to leave Punta Arenas, fly across the Drake Passage, and board the expedition ship already in the Antarctic.Footnote109

At the 2004 ATME, France recalled the need for stronger regulation to ‘protect the Antarctic environment from the effects of an increasing and diversifying human activity’.Footnote110 Nevertheless, ASOC noted that discussions primarily focused on technical issues such as operational processes and legal mechanisms were not addressed.Footnote111

From 2004 to 2006, discussions focused on land-based tourism. Parties recalled several issues and the ‘need to define this concept’.Footnote112 However, even as the ‘Meeting observed that no delegation spoke in favour of the development of new permanent land-based infrastructure to support tourism’,Footnote113 no policy options were adopted. IAATO reported no diversification of activities in 2006.Footnote114

After a proposal from the United Kingdom,Footnote115 Parties discussed convening a strategic vision to articulate acceptable future tourism forms and volume and ‘whether Parties should place greater controls on the overall size, geographic limits or diversity of tourism activities’.Footnote116 The strategic vision proposal became the basis of Resolution 7 (2009),Footnote117 recommending general principles to inform and guide Antarctic tourism management.

In response to increasing activity and incidents, the 2009 ATME focused on shipborne tourism.Footnote118 New Zealand recognised the sinking of MV Explorer as ‘a particular “wakeup call”’Footnote119 and the Meeting noted that over the last 20 years, the Peninsula ‘had seen an increase in around 85 ice-free days during the summer season’,Footnote120 a considerable addition to the tourism season. Maritime tourism discussions continued between 2010 and 2012 after a yachting incident at the designated Historic Site and Monument (HSM) Wordie House, with the United Kingdom remarking on the difficulty of collecting data and regulating yachts.Footnote121 Marathons and large-scale sporting activities were also discussed,Footnote122 with Ecuador expressing concern about the definition of large-scale events.Footnote123

After a proposed draft Resolution on the ‘Unending Increase and Diversification of Tourism’Footnote124 by New Zealand, ‘several Parties sought clarification on what terms such as “increase” and “diversification” were intended to address, suggesting these terms were ambiguous’.Footnote125 While several Parties supported the proposal, ‘some Parties raised concerns that taking a position against “unending tourism” could imply that Parties already now were willing to set limits on tourism, and suggested instead referring to “unmanaged” tourism’.Footnote126 Consequently, consensus could not be reached.

At this point, larger scale tourism was present in the Antarctic with the expansion of the cruise industry and its large carrying capacity. At the same time, specialist niche tourism was being supplied for both adventurous and higher-end clients, with new land-based tour operations and the proliferation of activities offered. Even rising interest in South Pole visits was noted via air, vehicle, and skisFootnote127 by the United States.

Between 2008 and 2011, however, the Antarctic experienced its first expressive tourism decrease. Numbers temporarily dropped from 46,265 in the 2007/08 seasonFootnote128 to 26,519 tourists in the 2011/12 seasonFootnote129 due to the global economic crisis and the banning of heavy fuel oil agreed by Parties to the International Maritime Organization (IMO). A steady recovery followed, as international tourism generally recovered quickly.Footnote130 Despite the decrease in overall numbers, IAATO observed that the nature of tourism activities was, in fact, evolving and noted increasing trends in several smaller segments, including air-cruise, land programmes, and yacht expeditions.Footnote131

2012–2019: activity-based tourism

In 2012, in the summary of an open-ended ICG led by the Netherlands, tourism diversification was mentioned as one of the ‘pending issues’ for tourism policy, specifically addressing whether Antarctica should be open to all activities.Footnote132 Parties also discussed and disagreed on whether the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) determining factor should be based solely on the impact of the activity or whether its purpose was also relevant.Footnote133 Another ICG was formed, again led by the Netherlands, to discuss tourism diversification further. The ICG provided examples of activities contributing to diversification and suggested continuing discussions, including debates on whether additional policy guidance was desired.Footnote134 That same season, Metallica performed a concert on King George Island for scientists and contest winners sponsored by Coca-Cola, becoming the first band to play on all seven continents.Footnote135 Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS) started being used for aerial tourist photography.Footnote136 In addition, IAATO reported that barley ‘seeds had been scattered unexpectedly as part of a religious ceremony by tourists’Footnote137 at Telefon Bay.

In 2014, IAATO presented an IP summarising ‘both adventure activities and land-based tourism within defined parameters’.Footnote138 The United States, however, ‘identified the difficulty in defining land-based and adventure tourism’.Footnote139 By then, the standard PVR included 19 tourist activities known to be offered by IAATO member operators. The form also included a category marked ‘other’, referring to any activity not listed before, which ‘may include … swimming, snowshoeing, filming, use of overhead drones, and even the polar plunge’.Footnote140 The Tourism WG Chair noted an ‘increase in activity-based tourism as compared to traditional location-based tourism’,Footnote141 while New Zealand noted challenges posed by the range of actors involved in Antarctic tourism.Footnote142 While the Meeting agreed on the need for a more strategic approach, ‘some Parties were reluctant to add to the CEP’s workload’.Footnote143 The same year, Red Bull promoted a surfing expedition with jet ski support, reporting that ‘the potential for surf in Antarctica is huge’.Footnote144

IAATO temporarily banned recreational RPAS in coastal areas in 2015, acknowledging their potential to undermine visitors’ wilderness experience, injure wildlife, and cause more than a minor or transitory impact.Footnote145 The Meeting, however, noted the CEP’s lack of consensus on a proposal raised by the Netherlands to adopt the same precautionary approach.Footnote146

By 2016, attention was given to the possible growth of ‘mass tourism and the diversification of activities, particularly those related to extreme adventure tourism’.Footnote147 While several Parties stressed the need to improve current tourism management mechanisms through enhanced supervision, enforcement, and systematic monitoring, other Parties considered the existing regulations sufficient if fully implemented.Footnote148 Whereas IAATO confirmed that several ‘sites were now regularly reaching peak daily visitor numbers’,Footnote149 the Meeting noted that notwithstanding information from IAATO, ‘there is no comprehensive and accurate picture of Antarctic tourism’.Footnote150 The following year, Russia highlighted an art event that happened regardless of a permit refusal,Footnote151 portraying further compliance challenges.

Tourism diversification was among the main topics at a tourism management workshop hosted in 2019 by the Netherlands,Footnote152 which recommended the CEP to ‘develop a framework for conducting pre-assessments relating to new, novel or particularly concerning activities … [and] ensure that site guidelines were as specific as possible in terms of which activities were permitted or not at each site’.Footnote153 IAATO also provided a catalogue of operator activities, describing 49 different activities undertaken by associated operators,Footnote154 including recreational, science, transport, and logistical activities.

2020–2022: from the pandemic to the restart of tourism

While the 2019/20 season set a record number of more than 74,000 visitors travelling to the Antarctic, the 2020/21 season welcomed only 15 private yacht visitors due to the COVID-19 pandemic.Footnote155 The ATCM did not occur in 2020. Tourist activities restarted by the 2021/22 season with some restraint as operators decided not to operate or cancel trips due to low occupancy, resulting in approximately 23,500 visitors.Footnote156 Still, submarine rides were available for tourists,Footnote157 and an Airbus A340Footnote158 and a Boeing 767Footnote159 landed in Antarctica for the first time, carrying 23 and 21 passengers, respectively. These aircraft have, nevertheless, 200–300 passenger capacity, raising concerns about large influxes of passengers, along with associated indirect impacts.

At the ATCM in 2021, Parties considered ‘the increasing diversification of aviation activities’,Footnote160 while in 2022, discussions focused on permanent and semi-permanent facilities and authorisation processes.Footnote161 The most recent version of the PVR, last updated in 2022, amounts to 51 activities-at-site codes.Footnote162

Conceptualisation: Antarctic tourism diversification

As seen above, discussions on tourism diversification encompassed and considered various developments. From the analyzed documents, seven dimensions contributing to Antarctic tourism diversification emerged after the coding process. This section outlines these dimensions, supplementing them with examples drawn from tourism brochures, media sources, and online information to offer an overview of the current extent of Antarctic tourism diversification.

It is important to notice that several developments may overlap. For example, camping as part of a tour package is both a type of activity and an overnight accommodation option. All types of tourism entail a range of activities. Adventure tourism, for example, overlaps with the diversification of accommodation options, tourism locations, types of activities offered, and so on. summarizes and structures the complexity and wide array of developments within tourism diversification; however, it does not aim to portray an exhaustive compilation.

Table 1. Overview of Antarctic tourism activities, encompassing a broad scope of tourism developments.

Current modes of transport

Current modes of transport can be divided between options with or without landings and between seaborne, airborne, or combined. The offers vary significantly in length, route, port of embarking, onboard service, and excursions offered.

Due to technical innovations and specialization, the utilization of new transportation technologies may improve sustainability. Examples include companies acquiring ice-class ships powered by liquified natural gasFootnote163 and committing to smaller carbon footprint biofuels.Footnote164 New technologies, such as enhanced communication systems or engineering innovations ensuring greater vessel stability,Footnote165 can also further increase the safety of passengers and staff.

Technological innovations can also be accountable for expanding access to unexplored areas. For instance, advancements like ice-strengthened hulls on modern ships have facilitated greater exploration of sea-ice areas,Footnote166while flights to the South Pole are presently available.Footnote167 Additionally, diversified transport modes enabled easier and faster travel to the Antarctic, partly accounting for the exponential growth and prospect of shorter visits. The introduction of large cruise-only ships significantly expanded the carrying capacity of individual vessels – currently, they can carry more than 2,300 passengers in one trip.Footnote168 With fly-sail operations, companies can offer journeys as short as a 5-day cruise,Footnote169 and tourists can reach land-based camps in only 5 hours from South Africa.Footnote170

Yacht activity raises some further considerations. IAATO defines yachts as sailing and motor vessels carrying 12 or fewer passengers.Footnote171 In the 2019/20 season, yacht members of IAATO, non-members with authorisation from a Treaty Party, and non-members without or unable to present authorisation from a Treaty Party brought passengers to the Antarctic in relatively similar numbers.Footnote172

Current types of tourism

In this paper, types of tourism refer to broader categories or classifications of tourism experiences based on the purpose or nature of the trip. These comprise specific sets of experiences or products that distinguish tourist practices, catering to particular market segments with distinct interests, preferences, or needs. In the policy discussions, attention is especially given to adventure and land-based tourism. According to IAATO, all sectors of the Antarctic tourism industry display activities that could be perceived as adventurous, whether land-based or vessel-basedFootnote173 and five land-based operators are currently listed in IAATO’s member directory,Footnote174 offering activities, accommodation, and transportation options.

In addition to commercial tour-packaged expeditions, adventure tourism encompasses individuals or groups engaged in expeditions involving ‘firsts’ or ‘achievements’ or aiming to accomplish a challenging route. Examples include more than 30 Guinness World Record breakings,Footnote175 a private expedition taking a Porsche to the continent’s interior to complete a 356-mile run in 2021,Footnote176 and a famous baseball player throwing a record-setting pitch in 2022.Footnote177 Even though some of these activities might only happen once, they generate media interest and attention and could evolve into new commercial tourism expansions.

Similarly, social media influencers significantly promote Antarctica as a destination and advance tourism. MrBeast, for example, went with a group on a 50-hour Antarctic travel challenge.Footnote178 With currently over 189M views, the video shows the group climbing a mountain and naming it after one of their sponsors. Videos showing the rough crossing of the Drake passage also went viral on TikTok in 2022 - a honeymoon video showcasing the turbulent passage, for example, has garnered 30.5 M viewsFootnote179 to date.

Finally, novel products continue to emerge as travel motivations keep diversifying, driving recent developments, such as a luxury wedding tripFootnote180 or the expansion of thematic cruises, including a dedicated kosher cruise,Footnote181 a knitting cruise,Footnote182 and an upcoming Disney Adventures cruise.Footnote183

Current types of activities offered

The variety of activities tourists can join has also increased over the years. These are the specific engagements and experiences that travelers can participate in or engage with during their trip and are often offered as add-on products to a tourism package. For instance, on expedition cruises, travelers can engage in off-vessel pursuits, while on land-based trips, they can partake in activities centered around the semi-permanent camps. This dimension exclusively emphasizes the individual activities on offer that tourists can partake in while in the Antarctic rather than the entire set of elements comprising the previous dimension.

Activities are varied and involve an extended range of engagement. As such, companies assert their commitment to ‘to put you in the action as much as possible [and] to maximise your time’Footnote184 since ‘after all, you certainly don’t go to the South Pole to lay out in the sun. Traveling to Antarctica means kayaking, hiking and generally exploring one of the most untouched places on the planet’.Footnote185

Currently, from the 51 activities included in the PVR, 38 refer to different types of activities at sites.Footnote186 However, more than 50 that have been or are still being offered were accounted for (), including current offers, such as zip-liningFootnote187 and picnicking,Footnote188 but not including previous single activities (such as ballooning or jet skiing). Also, from those included in the PVR, only 11 have an ATCM or IAATO guideline.Footnote189

Additionally, at least six large-scale sporting (marathon and half-marathon) events currently occur in the ATS area. Two of those challenges bring tourists to run seven marathons on the seven continents in seven continuous days (168 hours),Footnote190 allowing visitors to spend less than 24 hours in Antarctica.

Current overnight accommodation options on land

Most tourists sleep on the vessels transporting them to the Antarctic. Nevertheless, spending a night on the continent has become more widely available. Camping overnight options are either sold as an optional tour package activity or as accommodation for land-based companies and longer expeditions and crossings.

As an optional tour package activity, tourists are taken ashore by a small inflatable boat to spend a night in either tents or bivouac bags. Tour companies advertise that no experience is required and anyone can camp in Antarctica.Footnote191 In the case of accommodation for land-based companies, the private camps operate only during summer and are dismantled by the end of each season. Currently, there are at least 10 semi-permanent camps available.Footnote192 Some camps are assembled with double-walled sleeping tents, communal showers, and toilet facilities.Footnote193 In contrast, luxury camps move away from the basic tough-and-rough idea of an expedition camp, offering heated tents and polar pods with saunas, en-suite washrooms, luxury interiors, and 5-star international cuisine.Footnote194

Current tourism organisers

The current range of proponents of activities can be divided, at least, between private or commercial operations and IAATO membership. Of the current 109 IAATO members, 57 are operators and provisional operators who directly organise travel programmes, while the remaining are associate members booking customers into operator’s programmes or individuals and companies supporting IAATO objectives.Footnote195

Tourism organisers may also be specialised in polar tourism or non-specialised companies offering a larger portfolio of destinations. Differentiations can further include company size, size of tourist group per trip, years of Antarctic experience, and company registration country, for example.

Current other non-governmental activities

Other non-governmental activities have also been associated with Antarctic tourism diversification. These include art projects and installations, film and photography initiatives, including Antarctic documentaries, and educational activities, such as programmes linking students to the Antarctic. Live music performances, such as the Metallica concert or artist Diplo performing a DJ set,Footnote196 also contribute to this dimension.

Current tourism locations

Tourism is mainly concentrated in the Antarctic Peninsula,Footnote197 although activities occur in other continental areas and the Ross Sea. Though also associated with diversification, the geographical expansion of tourism has been most often related to growth discussions. Yet, tourism diversification can lead to visitations to uncharted locations and sites, such as exploring new sites for diving or mountain-related activities.

Concerns related to Antarctic tourism diversification

Concerns raised in the Final Reports were divided into the seven dimensions outlined and subdivided into focuses and issues. These are summarised in but cannot be considered exhaustive. Notably, some concerns overlap with considerations on tourism growth, and several overlap within the different dimensions.

Table 2. Overview of concerns related to Antarctic tourism diversification expressed in ATCM final reports.

More than 75 different concerns were expressed concerning the diversification of Antarctic tourism, some repeatedly over the years. Concerns are highly intricate, as considerations within each dimension pursue different focuses. In this sense, the ATCM’s view on the diversification of types of activities offered, for example, is manifold: it involves concerns not only about novel activities but also different sets of activities, such as risky, unauthorised, or with multiple participants. Each focus has then specifically raised issues, often as manifold and complex.

On the one hand, some expressed concerns related to known threats. These retain the innate risks of operating in the Antarctic and include increasing environmental impacts. Additionally, several concerns were raised regarding possible interference with National Antarctic Programs (NAPs), including disruption of scientists and pressures on search and rescue (SAR) resources. Thus, both human and environmental safety have been extensively considered. Jurisdictional issues, including differences in domestic legal systems, and the lack of consistency of certain activities and dimensions with the Antarctic values or principles, also received substantial attention.

On the other hand, other concerns were related to unknown threats. These are the unforeseen and unpredictable consequences that tourism developments can have, as some have never occurred before. Those encompass difficulty understanding potential interactions with the environment, unidentified risks for human safety, or unknown influences on prescribed Antarctic values, for instance.

Policy options related to Antarctic tourism diversification

Policy options expressed in the Final Reports were mapped onto the seven previously defined dimensions and subdivided by their focuses. summarises the policy options adopted and translated into instruments, while summarises those suggested but not adopted. Notably, many also relate to tourism in general or are tightly associated with other issues, such as growth. The proposed policy options were then further categorised by the instrument’s purpose and output (if adopted). The analysis of the policy’s purpose focused on the content of the ATS instruments when adopted and on the policy’s intention when not adopted.

Table 3. Policy options suggested and adopted related to Antarctic tourism diversification.

Table 4. Policy options suggested but not adopted related to Antarctic tourism diversification.

summarises 28 policy options adopted and related directly or indirectly to tourism diversification. Most suggestions adopted aim to provide guidance (12), primarily through codes of conduct, guidelines, and checklists. Policies meant to inform or communicate (7) include instruments to improve the exchange of information between Parties and promote broader public awareness. Examples of adopted policy options intended to regulate or control (7) tourism include limiting passengers in certain areas and preventing the construction of permanent facilities for tourism. Finally, two policy options adopted intend to monitor or measure (2) tourism levels and impacts.

Of all the instruments adopted, only two are Measures (legally binding), but none are yet in force. There have also been debates on the legal status of Recommendations, the single ATCM output before 1995.Footnote198 In this paper, Recommendations are seen as legally binding once they are effective, even when their language is vague or leaves space for interpretation, as they have been through a process of adoption through consensus. Thus, as all Recommendations in had approval from all Parties needed ‘to enter into effect’,Footnote199 apart from the two policy options translated into Measures, six other policy options embedded in Recommendations can be considered legally binding.

Two proposals related to adventure and land-based tourism had their focus changed in the final instruments to cover all types of tourism. Similarly, the instrument adopted from the proposal to develop a strategic tourism vision is seen by some Parties not to meet the expectations for a ‘vision’.Footnote200 Moreover, some adopted policies may have a broader or more restricted application. Visitor Site Guidelines, for example, have been adopted for 45 sites. Conversely, the current PVR focuses on seaborne tourism activities, as there are no specific PVRs for deep-field or air activities.Footnote201 In this sense, the scope of the first instrument broadens to include a range of sites, while the second instrument has its application restricted to only one type of activity.

Policy options considered in the ATCM plenary but not adopted are summarised in , totalling 35 suggestions. Most options were aimed at regulating or controlling (19) tourism, including bans, moratoriums, and prohibitions. Suggestions aimed at providing guidance (7) included developing certain guidelines or adding specific criteria to existing guidelines. Monitoring or measuring (4) options considered developing a central management database and methodologies to assess tourism impacts while standardising processes or procedures (3) included harmonising processes across National Competent Authorities (NCAs). Finally, levying an administrative fee on tourism operators or taxing tourists were suggested as options for economic or fiscal instruments (2).

Arguments against policy options vary broadly. Parties indicated financial implications, bureaucracy, and difficulty of legal implementation as reasons not to agree with a proposal. In the discussions about developing a centrally managed database, for example, ‘a Delegation felt it would imply more bureaucracy, especially as it thought that the current information system worked well. Other Delegations underlined the extra work that it might require’.Footnote202 On some issues, Parties argued that the current system and existing instruments were already sufficient. While discussing large-scale events, for example, ‘many Parties … agreed with the assertion that marathon activities are problematic. Some Parties and ASOC advocated strict regulation of adventure activities in Antarctica … [while] other Parties felt the current mechanisms for regulation, including environmental impact assessments, are sufficient’.Footnote203

Lack of time for discussion, need for term definitions, and for further information or study on certain proposals were also mentioned. Lack of agreement also originated from different understandings regarding policy instruments. For example, some Parties see guidelines as a potential way to encourage visits instead of regulating tourism activity, mentioning that ‘care be taken that guidelines do not promote the expectation that the tour operators have the right to visit’.Footnote204 Likewise, ‘some delegations felt that … the development of specialist tourist sites could be regarded as exploitation rather than preservation’.Footnote205 Additionally, even when agreement is reached concerning an issue, adopting a policy instrument might not occur. For example, despite the unanimous rejection of unauthorised yacht activities,Footnote206 measures to regulate the activity were not adopted.

In total, 63 policy options relating to tourism diversification were accounted for, from which 28 were adopted. provides an overview of all options described in and grouped by ‘focus’. Remarkably, discussions often do not follow a cohesive timeline, jumping between different topics and dimensions. Before the 1980s, policy options mainly focused on sites, station visits, tour operators and visitors, and tourism guiding principles. Various instruments were rapidly adopted, often in the same year the policy option was first brought up. However, between 1980 and 1993, limited discussions on policy options took place, conceivably given the ongoing negotiations on related ATS agreementsFootnote207 and the potential limited capacity of Parties to focus on tourism matters. Consultations intensified by 2004, marking the ATS’s more thorough consideration of an extended range of tourism developments. Nevertheless, the rapid agreements seen in early discussions became infrequent, even for topics such as station visits and sites, which had policy options immediately translated into instruments in earlier debates but no new instruments adopted afterwards. The increasing number of Consultative Parties and growing diversity of interests likely contributed to this shift.

Figure 1. ATS final reports - tourism diversification policy options discussions and instruments.

Figure 1. ATS final reports - tourism diversification policy options discussions and instruments.

Additionally, some policy suggestions have been debated over 20 years, going through active and dormant discussion periods. For example, establishing monitoring programmes was first suggested in 1995 and discussed only sparsely until 2022, while the proposal to define areas of Special Tourist Interest was discussed intensely in the 1970s and came back to the agenda only in 2005.

also illustrates the focus and outcomes of policy options discussions concerning the dimensions previously specified. Policy suggestions for modes of transport, types of tourism, and accommodation options on land, for example, were only introduced in the 2000s. Proposals focusing on specific types of activities were seldom adopted – only one out of nine suggestions was translated into an agreed instrument.

Finally, the analysis indicates that one of the leading approaches for tourism issues is the creation of ICGs and informal intersessional consultations. In total, 19 ICGs were established to discuss tourism topics (), with some leading to adopted instrumentsFootnote208 while others did not.Footnote209 For informal intersessional consultations, it is noted that in some cases,Footnote210 the issue will be addressed again in the following meeting, but the topic is not mentioned in the subsequent report.

Table 5. Established ICGs related to tourism.

Discussion

By comprehensively reviewing policy documents, this paper revealed how Antarctic tourism diversification had been discussed over time and how those discussions influenced the problem definition, expressed concerns, and proposed policy suggestions. Discussions were generally not aligned with the practice of tourism in the Antarctic, which kept evolving much faster than the forum discussions themselves, indicating a lack of a comprehensive understanding of the extent of tourism diversification and its dimensions.

As such, many tourism developments have been overlooked in the debates, raising questions about whether the ATCM was fully cognisant of them. Some concerns and policy options, for instance, were only raised after incidents, such as the sinking of the MV Explorer or the Wordie House incident. New activities and products have been developed continuously ahead of regulations. Additionally, the focus of the debates frequently varied, resulting in a lack of coherence and comprehensiveness in tackling diversification. Finally, discrepancies were observed in decision-makers’ perceptions, leading to discussions over term definitions and over which values should direct management. Yet, the analysis indicates that the Meeting has long recognised and voiced several concerns over tourism diversification.

It is crucial to stress Antarctic tourism diversification’s complex and multifaceted nature. Apart from encompassing several dimensions of tourism development, the diversification of any dimension is very often tightly related to the further diversification of another. For example, once a new location becomes available for tourism (e.g. the interior of Antarctica), the range of types of activities that can take place there also expands, together with the possibilities for overnight accommodation, modes of transport, etc. The same applies to potentially all other tourism dimensions. Once a new mode of transport becomes available, new locations can become accessible for tourism, new tourism organisers can enter the market, potential further types of activities can be offered, and so on. Inadequate management and regulation of each dimension can lead to an escalated risk of additional concerns in other dimensions, setting off a cascading effect.

Drawing from the policy discussions and historical tourism developments, empirical evidence highlights the significant influence of policy decisions (or lack of) and market-based processes on Antarctic tourism diversification. Adopted policy options are rarely legally binding and usually focus on providing guidance instead of regulating tourism. At the same time, the same driving forces leading tour operators to diversify their offers, providing tourists with a collection of customised alternatives to meet individual demands, can be observed in the Antarctic. A self-regulated market, coupled with inaction and non-decision-making processes,Footnote211 highly influences and even encourages diversification processes.

Additionally, this study considers Antarctic tourism diversification a wicked problem due to its complexity and interconnectedness, lack of clear definition and known solution, and involvement of multiple stakeholders with conflicting agendas.Footnote212 Exploring how Antarctic policy conceptualises and prioritises tourism diversification reveals insights into problem definition and problem framing shaped by multi-stakeholder dynamics. This examination helps clarify why some types of solutions have been suggestedFootnote213 and some have been overlooked. Moreover, it reveals that some proposed solutions only address symptoms rather than underlying causes, underscoring the risky implications of an inadequate holistic understanding of the scale of Antarctic tourism in directing policy debates and management decisions.

As such, approaches to addressing tourism diversification should acknowledge its dimensions and ramifications. The dimensions emerging from this analysis, as summarised in , can be used as heuristic or framing devices by policy officers to structure future debates. Compartmentalising suggested policy options into a dimension-based approach also supports monitoring ATCM debates and outcomes, ensuring that concerns are appropriately documented and addressed. Conducting these systematic data recordings can further aid in tackling fluid participation and managing time constraints, as decision-making bodies would readily have access to a comprehensive overview of past discussions, allowing for more informed decisions.

Thus far, Antarctic tourism management has primarily been reactive, heavily relying on the industry’s self-regulatory framework. While IAATO’s efforts should be recognised, research highlights the rise of escalating tensions exceeding the organisation’s capacityFootnote214 and the inadequate discharge of governance responsibilities by Parties.Footnote215 Prospective Antarctic tourism scenarios also suggest that decreased cooperation and reduced importance of IAATO will become inevitable if the current status quo persists and Parties fail to take action.Footnote216 Concurrently, the yearly exponential increase in tourist numbers and continuously extended tourism offers indicate that constraints cannot be expected to emerge from the market or the tourism industry.

Parties may not have felt the need to ‘create new rules and regulations’Footnote217 for tourism by 1994. Nonetheless, whereas the need for governance and regulatory arrangements is low when the density of users in a given space is also low, this requirement increases, often exponentially, as uses and capacities expand.Footnote218 By delaying the implementation of policy options to respond to the rapid and dynamic development of tourism adequately, decision-makers will continue to face constantly changing baselines for decisions. Moreover, effectively identifying current Antarctic tourism impacts is already a complex undertaking.Footnote219 Continuous diversification, characterised by the ongoing development of novel activities and products, exacerbates persistent uncertainty in impact assessment. Antarctic governance should prioritise a precautionary approach in light of this uncertainty.Footnote220

Finally, studies on tourism diversification remain limited and fragmented,Footnote221 with tourism product diversification features and relationships often overlooked.Footnote222 Besides, research on how those can reflect public policy decisions and market-based processes in different contexts is still lacking.Footnote223 This paper contributes to advancing research on diversification processes and relationships, emphasising the influence of policy decisions and market-based processes on tourism diversification and the need for a comprehensive assessment of its dimensions for effective management. While focusing on Antarctic tourism, this may provide insights into general processes in other destinations, as similar developments may be recognised elsewhere.

Conclusion

This paper provided a comprehensive overview and contextualisation of Antarctic tourism diversification, underscoring that a holistic structural understanding of its scope is imperative for informing and shaping Antarctic tourism governance. Furthermore, it highlighted how uncoordinated individual market-based processes and a self-regulated market, coupled with governance indecisiveness, significantly advance diversification processes. Left to the market and the industry to decide, Antarctic tourism will keep growing and diversifying.

At least since 2001, Parties acknowledged the increase in the diversity of Antarctic tourism activities and the importance of appropriate tourism management. However, over 20 years later, policy discussions are still filled with disagreements over term definitions, diverse positions from Parties, and a lack of consensus and decision-making. Amidst the evolving landscape of Antarctic tourism, proactive and timely action by the ATCM in governance response is, thus, critical for upholding coherence and relevance in decision-making processes.

As a wicked problem, Antarctic tourism diversification will not have a unique resolution, relying thus on political judgement to address it. As such, decision-makers should understand that ‘this entails making a judgment on how to handle an issue, rather than pretending the decision can be “read off” or derived from a precise scientific estimate’.Footnote224 Agreement on the values and principles that should guide improvements, including consideration for those already assigned to Antarctica by the ATS, and on a vision for Antarctic tourism might assist decision-makers in their judgements. Those will be crucial if tourism is to recover ‘its focus on what Antarctica has to offer instead of expanding into all sorts of activities that can be conducted anywhere on the planet’.Footnote225

Future research may investigate and map perspectives held by different Parties and explore reasons for discrepancies. Moreover, there is scope for research on how IAATO policies tackle and inform Antarctic tourism diversification. More broadly, future studies could investigate the process of tourism diversification and product development in the Antarctic from the supply side.

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Acknowledgments

The author is very grateful for the supervision and comments received from Edward Huijbens and Kees Bastmeijer.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/2154896X.2024.2342113.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work is part of the project Proactive Management of Antarctic Tourism: Exploring the Role of ATS Principles and Values and Best Practices Beyond the ATS (ProAct) (with project number ALWPP.2019.007) of the Netherlands Polar Programme, financed by the Dutch Research Council (NWO).

Notes

1 ATCM XLV/IP056. Full reference to the ATCM documents can be found in Supplementary Material.

2 ATCM XLII/IP145.

3 Antarctic Treaty, Washington D.C., 1 December 1959. In force 23 June 1961, 402 UNTS 71 [hereinafter Treaty].

4 See Molenaar, “Participation in the Antarctic Treaty”.

5 Secretariat of the AT, “ATCM and Other Meetings,” https://www.ats.aq/e/atcm.html.

6 Ibid.

7 See ATCM Decision 1 (1995), “Recommendations divided into Measures, Decisions and Resolutions”.

8 SCAR, ”The Antarctic Treaty System,” https://www.scar.org/policy/antarctic-treaty-system/.

9 Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, 4 October 1991, 30 ILM 1455 [hereinafter Protocol].

10 Art. 2 of the Protocol.

11 IAATO, “Membership Directory,” https://iaato.org/who-we-are/member-directory/.

12 ATCM XLII/IP026.

13 Bastmeijer, “Increasing diversity”.

14 Murray and Jabour, “Independent expeditions”.

15 Liggett et al., “Tourism hotspot”.

16 Lamers and Gelter, “Diversification of Antarctic tourism”.

17 See Schillat et al., “Multidisciplinary view”.

18 Bender et al., “Patterns of tourism”.

19 Student et al., “Towards a tipping point”.

20 Cajiao et al., “Adaptive management”.

21 See Tejedo et al., “Environmental impacts” for a comprehensive review.

22 Liggett & Hemmings, “Antarctic values”.

23 Molenaar, “Sea-borne tourism”.

24 Liggett & Hemmings, ‘Antarctic values’.;Scott, ‘Precautionary principle’.

25 Liggett et al., “Tourism hotspot”.

26 Cajiao et al., “Adaptive management”.

27 Haase et al., ‘Uncharted territory”.

28 McGee and Haward, “Climate changed world”.

29 Hemmings et al., “Politics of Antarctica”, 11.

30 Bastmeijer, “The Madrid Protocol”.

31 Ibid.

32 See, for example, Bastmeijer and Roura, ‘Regulating Antarctic’; Amelung and Lamers, “Scenario development”; and Liggett et al., “Tourism hotspot.”

33 Ansoff, “Strategies for diversification”. The four quadrants of the Ansoff Matrix are (1) market penetration: slight modifications of existing products to existing markets; (2) market development: existing products targeting new markets; (3) product development: new products and services for existing markets and; (4) diversification: new products and services for new markets.

34 Ibid.

35 Farmaki, “Coastal tourism diversification”.

36 Weidenfeld, “Smart specialisation”.

37 Benur and Bramwell, “Product diversification”.

38 Farmaki, “Coastal tourism diversification”, 185. Policy discussions also do not differentiate between product and market development, only utilising the term “tourism diversification”. Therefore, this paper will employ the same terminology.

39 Ganski et al., “Service packages”.

40 Romão et al., “Territory”.

41 Hall and Jenkins, “Policy dimensions”.

42 Mahachi and Ketsabile, “Diamond mining”.

43 Glaesser, “Crisis management”.

44 Farmaki, “Coastal tourism diversification”.

45 Benur and Bramwell, “Product diversification”.

46 Ek et al., “Dynamic framework”.

47 Urry, “Tourist gaze”.

48 In Franklin, “Interview with Zygmunt Bauman”.

49 Farmaki, “Coastal tourism diversification”.

50 Sabatier, “Better theories”.

51 Hall, “Typology of governance”.

52 Rittel and Webber, “Dilemmas”.

53 Alford and Head, “Wicked and less wicked problems”, 404.

54 Dunn, “Public policy analysis”.

55 Head, “Complex challenges”, 21.

56 Head, “Public sector”.

57 Alford and Head, “Wicked and less wicked problems”, 400.

58 Head, “Complex challenges”, 18.

59 Herweg et al., “Multiple streams”, 45.

60 See Peters, “Policy problems”; Dunn, “Public policy analysis”.

61 Drisko and Maschi, “Content analysis”.

62 Moyle et al., “Concept of sustainability”.

63 Heslinga et al., “Historical institutional context”.

64 Secretariat of the AT, “Tools and Resources”, https://www.ats.aq/e/tools-and-resources.html.

65 Drisko and Maschi, “Content analysis”.

66 Heslinga et al., “Historical institutional context”.

68 Reich, “Development”.

69 Foreign and Commonwealth Office, “Antarctic Yachting Guidelines”, https://www.highlatitudes.com/assets/Antarctic-Yachting-Guideline-2016.pdf.

70 Headland, “Historical development”.

71 Splettstoesser, “Stewardship”.

72 Snyder, “Tourism in the Polar Regions”.

73 Headland, “Historical development”.

74 Reich, “Development”.

75 Ibid.

76 Ibid, 205.

77 Final Report ATCM XII, 12, para 29.

78 Final Report ATCM XIII, 25, para 68.

80 Ibid.

81 Final Report ATCM XIV.

82 Headland, “Historical development”.

83 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed Rule on Environmental Impact Assessment of Nongovernmental Activities in Antarctica, 2011.

84 ASOC (Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition) is an Observer to the ATS, invited annually to the ATCMs.

85 ATCM XVI/IP077, 4, emphasis added. The excerpt can be found in the document section named “The Nature of Non-Governmental Activities”.

86 Bastmeijer and Roura, “Regulating Antarctic”.

87 Final Report ATCM XVIII, 14, para 59.

88 Marathon Tours & Travel. “Antarctica Marathon & Half-Marathon Voyage 2”. https://www.marathontours.com/about.

89 Final Report ATCM XX.

90 Resolution 3, 1997.

91 Codes: small boat landing and cruising, aircraft landing and flight, helicopter landing and flight, station visit, and camping.

92 ATCM XXII/IP086.

93 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Final Environmental Impact’; Aurora Expeditions, ‘Antarctica’s top 10 activities”, https://www.auroraexpeditions.com.au/blog/antarcticas-top-10-activities.

94 ATCM XXI/IP075, 7.

95 SATCM XII/IP033, 1, para 01.

96 Ibid, 7, para 7.5, emphasis added.

97 SATCM XII/IP032, 1, emphasis added.

98 Guinness World Records, “Longest solo motorcycle journey (female)”, https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-solo-motorcycle-journey-(female).

99 British Balloon Museum & Library, “First Flight at South Pole”, https://www.bbml.org.uk/first-flight-at-south-pole/.

100 Guinness World Records, “First unsupported snowkite crossing of East and West Antarctica”, https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/663980-first-unsupported-snowkite%c2%a0crossing-of-east-and-west%c2%a0antarctica.

101 Final Report ATCM XXIV, 22, para 106, emphasis added.

102 Ibid, 23, para 109, emphasis added.

103 ATCM XXV/IP073, 5, para 6, emphasis added. Categories were divided as: Modes of transport – Small Ship Traditional Tourism, Sailing Vessels, Yachts, Large Ships with Landing and Cruise Only, Overflights; Location – Peninsula, Continental, Ross Sea, Land-based Programs, no landings; Membership – IAATO or non-IAATO member.

104 Ibid, 172, para 2.2.1. Clarification regarding which forms of tourism were not developed.

105 Final Report ATCM XXV, 23, para 118.

106 Final Report ATCM XXVI, 33 para 141.

107 Ibid, 35, para 148.

108 Ibid.

109 Antarctica21, “The Antarctic Air-Cruise”, https://www.antarctica21.com/antarctic-air-cruises/.

110 ATME 2004/WP023, 5, emphasis added.

111 ATCM XXVII/IP093, 4.

112 Final Report ATCM XXVII, 30, para 195.

113 Final Report ATCM XXIX, 39, para 171.

114 Ibid, 35, para 145.

115 ATCM XXXI/WP51.

116 Final Report ATCM XXXI, 44, para 180.

117 Final Report ATCM XXXII, 53.

118 Final Report ATCM XXXII.

119 Final Report ATME 2009, 7, para 11. The sinking of the MV Explorer happened in 2007. The United States also observed the event as a ‘wake-up call’ in 2008 [Final Report ATCM XXXI, 46, para 197].

120 Ibid, 9, para 21.

121 Final Report ATCM XXXIII, 61, para 256.

122 Ibid, 70, paras 296–305.

123 Ibid, 70, para 305. The Final Report does not elaborate on the concern raised about the term.

124 Final Report ATCM XXXI, 49, para 216.

125 Ibid, para 218.

126 Ibid.

127 Final Report ATCM XXXIII, 77, para 345.

128 ATCM XXXI/IP85.

129 ATCM XXXV/IP39.

130 Gil-Alana and Huijbens, ‘Persistence and seasonality’.

131 Final Report ATCM XXXIV.

132 ATCM XXXV/WP027 rev.1.

133 Final Report ATCM XXXV, 56, para 218.

134 ATCM XXXVI/WP047.

135 Guinness World Records “First musical act to perform a concert on every continent”, https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/113181-first-musical-act-to-perform-a-concert-on-every-continent.

136 ATCM XXXVII/IP045 rev.1.

137 Final Report ATCM XXXV, 103, para 121.

138 Final Report ATCM XXXVII, 65, para 234.

139 Final Report ATCM XXXVII, 66, para 239.

140 ATCM XXXVII/IP078, 4.

141 Final Report ATCM XXXVII, 66, para 241.

142 Ibid, 67, para 245.

143 Ibid, 68, para 251.

144 Red Bull, “Surfing Antarctica with Ramón Navarro”, https://www.redbull.com/int-en/films/surfing-antarctica

145 ATCM XXVIII/IP088.

146 Final Report ATCM XL, 60, para 207.

147 Final Report ATCM XXXIX, 69, para 243.

148 Ibid, 69, para 242.

149 Ibid, 77, para 270.

150 Ibid, 70, para 245.

151 Final Report ATCM XL paras 363–366.

152 ATCM XLII/IP026. The workshop was hosted in cooperation with the United Kingdom, France, USA, New Zealand, and IAATO.

153 Final Report CEP 22, 124, para 8.

154 ATCM XLII/IP145.

155 ATCM XLIII/IP109.

156 ATCM XLIV/IP042.

158 HiFly, “Hi fly lands first ever Airbus A340 in Antarctica”, https://hifly.aero/media-center/hi-fly-lands-first-ever-airbus-a340-in-antarctica/.

159 IcelandAir, “Icelandair flies to Antarctica: putting the ice back in Icelandair” https://www.icelandair.com/blog/icelandair-flies-to-antarctica/.

160 Final Report ATCM XLIII, para 154.

161 Final Report ATCM XLIV.

162 Resolution 6, 2022. These include recreational, science, transport, and logistical activities.

163 Ponant. “Cruise on le commandant Charcot – Cruise Ship”, https://en.ponant.com/le-commandant-charcot.

164 White Desert. “Sustainable Aviation Fuel in Antarctica”, https://white-desert.com/sustainable-aviation-fuel/.

165 Quark Expeditions. “Ocean Explorer”, https://www.quarkexpeditions.com/gb/expedition-ships/ocean-explorer.

166 Ponant. “Cruise on le commandant Charcot – Cruise Ship”, https://en.ponant.com/le-commandant-charcot. Le Commandant Charcot is the world’s first passenger ship assigned a Polar Class 2 (PC2) hull.

168 For example, Sapphire Princess, M/V Norwegian Star.

169 For example, Silversea.

170 White Desert, “Our Aircraft”, https://white-desert.com/about-us/our-fleet/.

172 ATCM XLIII/IP054. Respectively, 16, 16, and 11 yachts were observed in the Antarctic.

173 ATCM XXXVII/IP078.

174 IAATO, “Membership Directory”, https://iaato.org/who-we-are/member-directory.

175 Guinness World Records, “World Records”, https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/.

176 Valkyrie Racing, “Antarctica Ice Challenge”, https://www.valkyrieracing.com/project-356.

177 Albatros Expeditions, “Padres Joe Musgrove throws record-setting pitch in Antarctica” https://albatros-expeditions.com/inspiration/padres-joe-musgrove-throws-record-setting-pitch-antarctica.

178 MrBeast, “I Survived 50 Hours In Antarctica”, YouTube [video], https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IKab3HcfFk&vl=en. MrBeast is a YouTuber with over 251 million subscribers.

179 Natasha Travel [@theworldpursuit], “Mother Nature can be fun #DrakePassage #Antarctica”, TikTok [video], https://www.tiktok.com/@theworldpursuit/video/7179052414803250434?q=%22drake%20passage%22&t=1690187855901.

180 Gross, “A new $250,000 wedding package in Antarctica is officially the coolest RSVP This Year”, https://www.forbes.com/sites/michellegross/2022/08/02/a-new-250000-wedding-package-in-antarctica-is-officially-the-coolest-rsvp-this-year/.

181 Kosher Horizons, “Past trips: Antarctica”, https://www.kosherhorizons.com/past-trip-antarctica

183 Adventures By Disney, “Antarctica Expedition Cruise & Patagonia expedition cruise”, https://www.adventuresbydisney.com/central-south-america/antarctica-patagonia-expedition-cruise/.

184 Aurora Expeditions, “Activities Guide, Activities to put you in the Action”, https://www.auroraexpeditions.com.au/brochures/.

185 Hurtigruten, “9 reasons to travel to Antarctica”, https://www.hurtigruten.com/en-us/expeditions/stories/9-reasons-to-travel-to-antarctica/.

186 Other activities in the PVR encompass logistical, transport and scientific activities (e.g. Medical Evacuation, Gear Depot, RPAS Navigation Assistance Flight).

187 White Desert, “Owners Club”, https://white-desert.com/adventures/owners-club/.

188 White Desert, “The Greatest Day”, https://white-desert.com/adventures/the-greatest-day/.

189 ATCM XLII/IP145.

190 World Marathon Challenge, “World Marathon Challenge”, https://www.worldmarathonchallenge.com/.

191 For example, Oceanwide, Swoop Antarctica.

192 See the Report of the ICG on infrastructure supporting tourism and other non-governmental activities in Antarctica, ATCM XLV, for an overview

194 White Desert, “Whichaway”, https://white-desert.com/whichaway.

195 IAATO, “How to Join”, https://iaato.org/about-iaato/how-to-join/.

196 Insider Expeditions, “DJ Diplo”, https://insiderexpeditions.com/diplo/.

197 ATCM XLIV/IP043.

198 For a comprehensive discussion on the legal status of recommendations, see Joyner, ”Recommended measures”.

199 Art. IX(4) of the Antarctic Treaty.

200 Final Report ATCM XXXII, 53, para 186.

201 Final Report ATCM XLIV, 66, para 320.

202 Final Report ATCM XXVI, 33, para 137.

203 Final Report ATCM XXXII, 56–57, paras 208–209.

204 Final Report ATCM XXXIII, 59, para 246.

205 Final Report ATCM XXIX, 40, para 174.

206 Final Report ATCM XXXIX, 76, para 268.

207 By that time, negotiations were underway for both the Protocol and for CRAMRA (Convention on the Regulation of Antarctic Mineral Resource Activities).

208 For example, ICGs on voluntary onboard framework and updates on Site Guidelines.

209 For example, ICGs on database, accreditation scheme, and marathons.

210 For example, on the proposals for camping and developing criteria to deny authorisation.

211 Hall, “Typology of governance”; Bastmeijer, “The Madrid Protocol”.

212 Rittel and Webber, ‘Dilemmas’; Alford and Head, ‘Wicked and less wicked problems’.

213 Peters, “Policy problems”; Dunn, “Public policy analysis”.

214 Amelung and Lamers, “Scenario development”; Student et al., “Towards a tipping point”.

215 Molenaar, “Sea-borne tourism”.

216 Ligget et al., “Future scenarios”.

217 Final Report ATCM XVIII, 14, para 59.

218 Young, “Institutional linkages”.

219 Tejedo et al., “Environmental impacts”.

220 Bastmeijer and Roura, “Regulating Antarctic”; Liggett et al., “Tourism hotspot”;Tejedo et al., “Environmental impacts”.

221 Farmaki, “Coastal tourism diversification”; Weidenfeld, “Smart specialisation”.

222 Benur and Bramwell, “Product diversification”.

223 Ibid

224 Alford and Head, “Wicked and less wicked problems”, 409.

225 Liggett et al., “Tourism hotspot”, 363.

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