Play Call Strategies and Modeling for Target Outcomes in Football

Abstract

This article considers one-off actions for a football coach who is asking for a specific outcome from a play. This will be in the form of a minimum gain in yards, usually in order to gain a first down. Using a random utility model approach we propose the play to be called is the one which maximizes the probability of the desired outcome. We specifically focus on pass plays, which requires the modeling of outcomes in terms of yards gained, for which we use the family of generalized gamma distributions. The data and results relate to the Fall 2021 Presbyterian College football team, in which we leverage specific information pertaining to the offensive playbook.

KEYWORDS:

• Bayesian hierarchical modeling
• Generalized Gamma distribution
• NCAA Football

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank an Editor and three reviewers for comments and suggestions on an earlier version of the article. They would also acknowledge and thank the members of the Fall 2021 Presbyterian College football team for making this research possible. Specifically, PB would like to thank players Ren Hefley, Warner Bush, and Acha Mbanwei, as well as assistant coaches Andre Sale, Kent Haltiwanger, Tyler Traynham, Zack Kelley, Kamren Mack, Roland Matthews, Joey Orck, Jared Lee, Stewart Hunt, and Sam Witcher, for helpful conversations, advice, and insights. PB would also like to thank Athletic Director Rob Acunto for allowing participation in team activities, and Coach Jeff Imamura for informative conversations. Most importantly, we would like to thank Head Coach Kevin Kelley for letting PB be part of the team and for the insight provided throughout the season. This research would not have happened had it not been for his support.