Student- and School-Level Predictors of Geography Achievement in the United States, 1994–2018

Abstract

This paper examines national gaps and trends in geography achievement in eighth grade from 1994 to 2018. Statistical models comprising student- and school-level variables were developed to predict achievement using data provided by the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). Although there were statistically significant relationships between achievement and school-level attributes such as geographic region and school sector, the magnitudes of the coefficients were relatively minor and inconsistent over time compared with student-level characteristics such as gender, race, ethnicity, and parental education. The results inform current policy directions and efforts to foster educational equity in K-12 geography.

Keywords:

• Geographic content knowledge
• geographic skills
• multilevel modeling
• secondary education
• achievement gaps

Acknowledgments

Dr. Russell Weaver provided helpful assistance with the description of the NAEP sampling design and assessment procedures.

Notes

1 In 1994 the books in home variable was binary >25 books (comparison category <25 books). Beginning in 2001 the books in home variable became ordinal. 1994 and 2001 the urbanicity variables were mid-sized city, large town, small town, and rural (comparison category = large city). Beginning in 2010 the urbanicity variables were suburban, town, and rural (comparison category = city).

2 NAEP classifies students as “free or reduced-price lunch N/A” in two cases: (1) school records were not available, or (2) the school did not participate in the National School Lunch program. Increased accuracy in school reporting has reduced the percentage of students classified in this group since 1994.

3 Statistical significance was observed in the negligible missing data model.

Additional information

Funding

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1937307.

Notes on contributors

Michael Solem

Michael Solem is a Professor of Geography at Texas State University. He co-directs the National Center for Research in Geography Education and serves the American Association of Geographers (AAG) as Senior Advisor for Geography Education. In 2015, he was awarded AAG Gilbert Grosvenor Honors in Geographic Education.

Phillip Vaughan

Phillip Vaughan is a research scientist with the Methodology, Measurement, and Statistical Analysis (MMSA) division at Texas State University. He specializes in structural equation modeling (SEM), hierarchical linear modeling (HLM), and other advanced statistical techniques.

Corey Savage

Corey Savage is a researcher at the American Institutes for Research. He studies civic education, teacher policy, and curricular reform.

Alessandro S. De Nadai

Alessandro S. De Nadai is an Assistant Professor of Psychology at Texas State University. His work seeks to translate new developments in data science into improved behavioral outcomes.