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Abstract
This essay examines the historically anomalous nature of the contemporary US-led European security order in the context of other distinctive aspects of European history. These include the absence of a long-lasting hegemon since the fall of the Roman Empire, Europe’s rise and global dominance, and its instigation of the two world wars which brought its own destruction. The essay argues that America’s role as effectively a non-territorial hegemon allowed Europe largely to reconcile the ‘impossible trinity’ of unity, security and liberty which had previously eluded it. However, this anomalous and relatively happy period could soon end if, due to US internal political dynamics or a need to strategically prioritise East Asia, the American Leviathan withdraws from its function as Europe’s security provider.
Notes
1 See, for example, Walter Scheidel, Escape from Rome: The Failure of Empire and the Road to Prosperity (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2019).
2 The reader might reasonably argue that Russia is itself a European state. While Russia has made a glorious contribution to what might be called European high culture, and at various points has played a key role in European power dynamics, its political culture has generally been quite distinct. At present, it stands in opposition to all that contemporary Europe represents.
3 Richard Toye, ‘“We Shall Fight on the Beaches”: 3 Things You Never Knew About Churchill’s Most Famous Speech’, History of Government
blog, UK Government, https://history.blog.gov.uk/2013/12/02/we-shall-fight-on-the-beaches-three-things-you-never-knew-about-churchills-most-famous-speech/.
4 Timothy Garton Ash, ‘Europe Whole and Free’, New York Review of Books, 2 November 2023, https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2023/11/02/europe-whole-and-free-timothy-garton-ash/.
5 In economics, the trilemma is between free capital mobility, exchange-rate management and an independent monetary policy. See ‘What Is the Impossible Trinity?’, The Economist, 10 September 2016, https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2016/09/09/what-is-the-impossible-trinity.
6 IISS, ‘Changing Alliance Structures’, December 2021, p. 7, https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/files/research-papers/2021/alliances-report.pdf.
7 See Raphael S. Cohen, ‘Ukraine and the New Two-war Construct’, War on the Rocks, 5 January 2023, https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/ukraine-and-the-new-two-war-construct/.
8 Christoph Trebesch et al., ‘Ukraine Support Tracker – 15th Release (Covering January 24, 2022 to January 15, 2024)’, Kiel Working Papers, no. 2218, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, available at https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/the-ukraine-support-tracker-which-countries-help-ukraine-and-how-20852/.
9 See Stephen Groves and Lisa Mascaro, ‘Ukrainian Troops Are Rationing Ammunition. But House Republicans Plan to Take Weeks to Mull More Aid’, AP News, 2 March 2024, https://apnews.com/article/congress-ukraine-resupply-aid-republicans-53db93c5db8ab249503e93b558da5bd8; Stephen Collinson, ‘House Speaker Mike Johnson Faces a Defining Dilemma on Ukraine’, CNN, 27 February 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/27/politics/mike-johnson-urkaine-aid-dilemma/index.html; and Chicago Council on Global Affairs, ‘Americans Continue to Support Military and Economic Aid to Ukraine’, 28 February 2024, https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/americans-continue-support-military-and-economic-aid-ukraine.
10 James FitzGerald, ‘Trump Says He Would “Encourage” Russia to Attack Nato Allies Who Do Not Pay Their Bills’, BBC News, 11 February 2024, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68266447.
11 Kelly Garrity, ‘Why John Bolton Is Certain Trump Really Wants to Blow Up NATO’, Politico, 13 February 2024, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/13/bolton-trump-2024-nato-00141160.
12 See Roger Cohen, ‘Seeking to Unsettle Russia, Macron Provokes Allies’, New York Times, 28 February 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/28/world/europe/macron-nato-russia-putin.html; and Patrick Wintour, ‘Russia Could Attack Nato States if West Fails to Support Ukraine, Macron Says’, Guardian, 26 February 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/26/emmanuel-macron-paris-conference-aims-to-show-the-west-has-means-to-defeat-putin.
13 See Trebesch et al., ‘The Ukraine Support Tracker’; and ‘German Brigade in Lithuania Set to Be Combat Ready in 2027’, DW, 18 December 2023, https://www.dw.com/en/german-brigade-in-lithuania-set-to-be-combat-ready-in-2027/a-67754124.
14 For data on European defence spending, see the IISS Military Balance+ database, https://www.iiss.org/the-military-balance-plus/.
15 See Tom Balmforth, ‘What Are the Security Deals Ukraine Is Discussing with Allies?’, Reuters, 16 February 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-are-security-deals-ukraine-is-discussing-with-allies-2024-02-14/.
16 European Commission, ‘EU Leaders Agree on €50 Billion of Reliable Financial Support for Ukraine Until 2027’, 2 February 2024, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ac_24_621.
17 Pjotr Sauer, ‘Sending Troops to Ukraine Would Risk Provoking Nuclear War, Putin Tells Nato’, Guardian, 29 February 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/29/troops-ukraine-risk-provoking-nuclear-war-vladimir-putin-tells-nato.
18 Edward Gibbon, The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, vol. 1 (London: W.W. Gibbings, 1890 [1776]), p. 73.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Benjamin Rhode
Benjamin Rhode is Editor of the Adelphi book series and IISS Senior Fellow.