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Abstract
Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea region intended to pressure Israel to stand down in Gaza, and US strikes against targets in Yemen in response, invite comparisons to the ‘Tanker War’ that arose during the 1982–88 Iran–Iraq War and subsequent US–Iran confrontations. The Tanker War analogy is of limited utility, however. While both conflicts involve Iran sanctioning attacks against maritime commerce, it is an Iran-backed group – the Yemen-based Houthi rebels – rather than Iran itself that is perpetrating today’s attacks on seaborne trade. Tehran also does not face external pressures comparable to those prevailing during the Iran–Iraq War, and the possibility of an outright war between the United States and Iran is higher today than it was in the 1980s. Accordingly, the US is likely to have a harder time stopping attacks on shipping.
Notes
1 See Wailin Wong et al., ‘Red Sea Tensions Spell Trouble for Global Supply Chains’, NPR, 2 January 2024, https://www.npr.org/2024/01/02/1197959330/red-sea-tensions-global-shipping.
2 William J. Luti, ‘How We Deterred Iran in the Gulf Last Time’, Wall Street Journal, 25 December 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-we-deterred-iran-in-the-gulf-last-time-reagan-navy-operation-praying-mantis-580b3c95.
3 James Stavridis, ‘Hit the Houthis – and Iran – Where It Counts’, Bloomberg, 3 January 2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-03/us-can-strike-houthi-and-iranian-targets-to-protect-red-sea-shipping.
4 Nick Schifrin and Dan Sagalyn, ‘US Blames Iran-backed Militia for Deadly Attack, Leaving Middle East on Edge’, PBS NewsHour, 31 January 2024, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/u-s-blames-iran-backed-militia-for-deadly-attack-leaving-middle-east-on-edge.
5 See Efraim Karsh, The Iran–Iraq War: 1980–1988 (Oxford: Osprey, 2002), pp. 12–59.
6 See Lou Cannon, ‘Reagan Pays Tribute to Victims, Says Iran Is “the Real Villain”’, Washington Post, 19 May 1987, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1987/05/20/reagan-pays-tribute-to-victims-says-iran-is-the-real-villain/c1d9607f-6f5a-4a8f-8f0e-238ef5f492e2/.
7 See Harold Lee Wise, ‘One Day of War’, Naval History Magazine, vol. 27, no. 2, March 2013, https://www.usni.org/magazines/naval-history-magazine/2013/march/one-day-war.
8 See Michael A. Palmer, Command at Sea: Naval Command and Control Since the Sixteenth Century (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2007), pp. 308–14.
9 See Lee Allen Zatarain, America’s First Clash with Iran: The Tanker War, 1987–88 (Havertown, PA: Casemate Publishers, 2010), pp. 525–7.
10 See ibid., pp. 631–91.
11 ‘Time to Step Back from Tanker War Two’, Lloyd’s List, 15 May 2019, https://lloydslist.com/LL1127507/Time-to-step-back-from-Tanker-War-Two.
12 See Martin S. Navias, ‘Oil and Water: The Tanker Wars’, History Today, vol. 69, no. 9, 8 August 2019, https://www.historytoday.com/archive/feature/oil-and-water-tanker-wars.
13 Attributed to Conrad Crane in H.R. McMaster, ‘Preserving the Warrior Ethos’, Hudson Institute, 1 November 2021, https://www.hudson.org/national-security-defense/preserving-the-warrior-ethos.
14 See Alex Vatanka, ‘Whither the IRGC of the 2020s? Is Iran’s Proxy Warfare Strategy of Forward Defense Sustainable?’, New America, 15 January 2021, https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/reports/whither-irgc-2020s/.
15 See Håvard Haugstvedt, ‘Red Sea Drones: How to Counter Houthi Maritime Tactics’, War on the Rocks, 3 September 2021, https://warontherocks.com/2021/09/red-sea-drones-how-to-counter-houthi-maritime-tactics/; and Caleb Weiss, ‘Analysis: Houthi Naval Attacks in the Red Sea’, Long War Journal, 17 August 2019, https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/08/analysis-houthi-naval-attacks-in-the-red-sea.php.
16 See Chris Gordon, ‘US, Allies Take On Over 100 Attacks by Houthis with New “Operation Prosperity Guardian”’, Air & Space Forces Magazine, 18 December 2023, https://www.airandspaceforces.com/operation-prosperity-guardian-houthi-attacks/.
17 See Brad Lendon, ‘Drones vs. Warships: How US Military Hardware Is Combatting Houthi Attacks on Maritime Shipping’, CNN, 27 December 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/27/middleeast/red-sea-attacks-us-navy-warships-intl-hnk-ml/index.html.
18 See Alex Longley, Ruth Liao and Yongchang Chin, ‘Shipping Insurance for Red Sea Transit Soars After Mounting Attacks’, Bloomberg, 20 December 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-20/shipping-insurance-for-red-sea-transit-soars-as-attacks-persist; ‘Commercial Suez Canal Traffic Down Almost 60% Since Houthi Attacks Began’, SupplyChainBrain, 4 January 2024, https://www.supplychainbrain.com/articles/38789-commercial-suez-canal-traffic-down-almost-60-since-houthi-attacks-began; and Adam Taylor, ‘Houthi Attacks on Shipping Threaten Global Consequences’, Washington Post, 19 December 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/19/houthi-red-sea-global-shipping-effects/.
19 See Sambit Mohanty, ‘Red Sea Turmoil Has So Far Spared Oil Supplies, but Buyers Have Reasons to Worry’, S&P Global, 7 February 2024, https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/blogs/oil/020724-red-sea-turmoil-spared-oil-supplies-buyers-reasons-to-worry; Jenni Reid, ‘Red Sea Tensions Risk Significantly Higher Inflation, OECD Warns’, CNBC, 5 February 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/05/red-sea-tensions-risk-significantly-higher-inflation-oecd-warns-.html; and ‘What Are the Impacts of the Red Sea Shipping Crisis?’, J.P. Morgan, 8 February 2024, https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/supply-chain/red-sea-shipping.
20 Quoted in Felicia Schwartz, ‘US Says Iran “Deeply Involved” in Houthi Red Sea Shipping Attacks’, Financial Times, 22 December 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/87325ffa-e1a7-4480-804b-a1cc42f8f141.
21 See Helene Cooper, Eric Schmitt and Julian E. Barnes, ‘A U.S.–Iranian Miscalculation Could Lead to a Larger War, Officials Say’, New York Times, 29 November 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/29/us/politics/israel-iran-gaza-us-attacks.html.
22 See US Department of Defense, ‘Statement from Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Ensuring Freedom of Navigation in the Red Sea’, 18 December 2023, https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3621110/statement-from-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-on-ensuring-freedom-of-n/.
23 See Lolita C. Baldor, ‘Who Are the Houthis and Why Hasn’t the U.S. Retaliated for Their Attacks on Ships in the Middle East?’, PBS NewsHour, 12 January 2024, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/who-are-the-houthis-and-why-hasnt-the-u-s-retaliated-for-their-attacks-on-ships-in-the-middle-east.
24 See Lolita C. Baldor, ‘US Military Revises Account of What Happened to 2 SEALs Who Died Trying to Board Yemen-bound Ship’, AP News, 31 January 2024, https://apnews.com/article/seals-navy-deceased-weapons-raid-yemen-2e1ce5eb4fda2ca789fa88f25cf8e9ba; and Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt, ‘Two SEAL Team Members Missing After Incident Off Somalia Coast’, New York Times, 13
January 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/13/us/politics/navy-seal-team-somalia-coast.html.
25 See White House, ‘A Joint Statement from the Governments of the United States, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and the United Kingdom’, 3 January 2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/03/a-joint-statement-from-the-governments-of-the-united-states-australia-bahrain-belgium-canada-denmark-germany-italy-japan-netherlands-new-zealand-and-the-united-kingdom/.
26 See United Nations, ‘Adopting Resolution 2722 (2024) by Recorded Vote, Security Council Demands Houthis Immediately Stop Attacks on Merchant, Commercial Vessels in Red Sea’, 10 January 2024, https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15561.doc.htm.
27 See Jon Gambrell et al., ‘US Military Strikes Another Houthi-controlled Site After Warning Ships to Avoid Parts of Red Sea’, AP News, 13 January 2024, https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthis-us-ship-attacks-bombing-red-sea-iran-cc06d9186a00d1f22bea6b9c14dda12a.
28 Bob Woodward, Veil: The Secret Wars of the CIA, 1981–1987 (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007), p. 507.
29 See Patrick Wintour, ‘Houthis Strike Iran-bound Grain Ship in First Red Sea Attack in Six Days’, Guardian, 13 February 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/13/houthis-strike-iran-bound-grain-ship-in-first-red-sea-attack-in-six-days; and ‘Houthis Mistakenly Target Tanker Carrying Russian Oil, Security Firm Says’, Reuters, 12 January 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/houthis-mistakenly-target-tanker-carrying-russian-oil-ambrey-report-2024-01-12/.
30 See Laura Seligman and Matt Berg, ‘A $2M Missile vs. a $2,000 Drone: Pentagon Worried over Cost of Houthi Attacks’, Politico, 20 December 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/missile-drone-pentagon-houthi-attacks-iran-00132480.
31 See Justin Conrad and William Spaniel, Militant Competition: How Terrorists and Insurgents Advertise with Violence and How They Can Be Stopped (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021); and Asher Orkaby, ‘The Perils of Red Sea Piracy and Propaganda’, Diplomatic Courier, 15 December 2023, https://www.diplomaticourier.com/posts/red-sea-piracy-propaganda.
32 See James Stavridis, ‘US-led Naval Force Might Not End Houthi Ship Attacks’, Bloomberg, 19 December 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-19/can-us-led-naval-force-protect-ships-oil-in-red-sea-persian-gulf?.
33 See David B. Crist, ‘Gulf of Conflict: A History of U.S.–Iranian Confrontation at Sea’, Policy Focus no. 95, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, June 2009, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/media/3423.
34 See Daniel Sobelman, ‘Houthis in the Footsteps of Hizbullah’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 3, June–July 2023, pp. 129–44.
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Ethan J. Lee
Ethan J. Lee is assistant editor and David M. Rubenstein Editorial Fellow at Foreign Affairs.