Analysing the impacts of individual-level factors on public transport usage during the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive literature review and meta-analysis

ABSTRACT

Public transport (PT) usage was severely impacted during the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in up to a 90% reduction in many cities in 2020. Numerous studies have been conducted since then to determine the relationship between individual-level factors (such as gender, attitudes, etc.) and the decrease in PT usage during the pandemic. Despite the evidence provided, findings are dispersed, and for several factors contradictory, making it challenging to reach any generalised conclusion. Furthermore, a comprehensive comparison of the effect sizes among travellers’ factors affecting PT use during this period is yet to be compiled. This paper aims to address these gaps by systematically reviewing the existing evidence and synthesising the effect sizes of travellers’ factors through a meta-analysis. We first identified 36 studies that statistically assessed the contribution of 15 individual-level factors on PT usage during the COVID-19 pandemic. By merging the empirical evidence of those studies, the direction of the association between those factors and PT usage was analysed. Then, after selecting comparable studies, meta-analyses were conducted for each factor to estimate the corresponding pooled effect sizes. The meta-analysis established that car availability, teleworking opportunities and high educational level contributed the most to reducing PT use during the pandemic. These factors increased the odds of reducing PT usage compared with the pre-pandemic by about three times. Factors such as COVID-19 risk perception, gender, high income and health had a moderate effect on the decision to stop using PT. PT habits, travel distance and physical accessibility also influenced PT use during the pandemic. Geographical location and the pandemic period explained part of the heterogeneity found. The findings provided in this study can help policy-makers understand the impacts of travellers’ factors on the decision to reduce PT usage during future pandemics/epidemics and guide public policies accordingly.

KEYWORDS:

• Public transport demand
• COVID-19
• transit
• travel behaviour
• meta-analysis
• systematic literature review

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 A summary of studies where the impacts of PT demand on aggregated PT demand was characterised is provided in the supplementary material.

Additional information

Funding

The funding for this research has been provided by the Chilean Agency of Research and Development (ANID) through the Becas Chile scholarship. This work was also supported by UKRI Future Leader Fellowship [grant number MR/T020423/1].