Public attitudes to referendums on Irish unification in Northern Ireland: evidence from an online consultation

ABSTRACT

Debate on Irish unification has increased in recent years, yet public attitudes on the processes that might lead to it are underexplored. This article examines the results of an online public consultation carried out in Northern Ireland in the summer of 2020 on how any future referendums on the unification question would best be conducted. It shows that hopes and fears on this question exist across society in Northern Ireland. It also reveals that public views are yet to crystallise on many of the design features of a referendum. There are some exceptions to this: there is a widespread feeling that the Brexit referendum process should not be replicated; and there are signs of divergent views emerging between communities on the franchise, referendum threshold, and use of citizens’ assemblies. Nevertheless, we conclude that the lack of hardened views on most questions of process points to an opportunity for policymakers and impartial observers to foster agreement on how a referendum process should be conducted.

KEYWORDS:

• Northern Ireland
• direct democracy
• Brexit
• Belfast/Good Friday Agreement

Acknowledgements

The authors thank everyone who took the time to promote or respond to our public consultation. Reading people’s views on these subjects was exceptionally rewarding and enlightening. The authors also thank the team at the Constitution Unit and the members of the Working Group on Unification Referendums on the Island of Ireland. In particular, we are deeply grateful to the research volunteers who assisted our analysis: Joe Cardwell, Robert Liao, Allison O’Malley Graham, and Oli Maddison. The authors would also like to thank Dr Jamie Pow at Queen’s University Belfast for his thoughtful comments on a draft of this paper, and for his assistance with disseminating the survey. Finally, authors are grateful to two anonymous reviewers at Irish Political Studies, who provided insightful and encouraging comments.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 The members of the Working Group were: Alan Renwick (Chair), Oran Doyle, John Garry, Paul Gillespie, Cathy Gormley-Heenan, Katy Hayward, Robert Hazell, David Kenny, Christopher McCrudden, Brendan O’Leary, Etain Tannam, and Alan Whysall.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the British Academy under Grant number IC4/100198, and by the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust under Grant number 10774.

Notes on contributors

Alan Renwick

Alan Renwick is Professor of Democratic Politics and Deputy Director of the Constitution Unit at University College London. He was the Chair of the Working Group on Unification Referendums on the Island of Ireland.

Nadia Dobrianska

Nadia Dobrianska is a PhD student at University College London and a former research volunteer at the UCL Constitution Unit.

Conor J. Kelly

Conor J. Kelly is a PhD student at Birkbeck College, University of London and a Research Assistant at the UCL Constitution Unit. He was the Working Group's Research Assistant and Project Manager.

Charlotte Kincaid

Charlotte Kincaid was the Constitution Unit's Impact Research Fellow, leading the Working Group’s communications and engagement work.