Conflict Trajectories and Education: Gender-Disaggregated Evidence from India

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the relationship between conflict trajectories and years of schooling in India for girls and boys. It adopts propensity score matching methods on panel data from the India Human Development Survey (2004/05-2011/12) merged with conflict data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal. Conflict is measured according to the dynamic trajectory of Naxal violence-related fatalities at the district level, distinguishing areas of chronic conflict with those experiencing dynamism in conflict intensity over time. ATT estimates indicate that conflict is associated with a reduction in years of schooling for both genders, though relatively high for girls (by a quarter of a year for girls and by 0.16 of a year for boys), driven by large reductions in school accumulation for girls living in areas of chronic conflict. Results are consistent when adopting different methods, alternative measures of conflict fatalities, and accounting for other conflicts and selective migration. Examining transmission mechanisms suggest that household spending on girls’ education may be de-prioritised amidst conflict, while conflict may also weaken or destroy school infrastructure. Results suggest that policy responses should prioritise girls’ education in areas of chronic conflict, not only in ‘fragile states’ but in countries where conflict remains a subnational concern.

KEYWORDS:

• Conflict trajectories
• education
• gender
• India

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• I240
• D7
• J1

Acknowledgement

I would like to express my sincere thanks to Professor Pauline Rose for her guidance and feedback during the development of this research work, and to Nguyen Viet Cuong for insights on the difference-in-difference model using panel data without baseline information.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1. This study relies on panel design weights suggested by the survey data providers, given that an attrition analysis provided weights that did not result in any significant differences in descriptives and outcomes.

2. Rubin’s B statistic is the absolute standardized difference of means of the linear index of the propensity score in treated and matched untreated groups. Rubin’s R is the ratio of treated to matched untreated variables of the propensity score index.

3. Other than Jammu and Kashmir, Assam, and Punjab, these are smaller populations with generally under 4 million people (Meghalaya, Tripura, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh).