Estimating the Number of Attacks to Civilians in Ukraine: A Quantitative Analysis from Media Sources

Abstract

We describe a compiled database of daily reports of attacks involving civilians that are associated with the Russian aggression to Ukraine. We argue how obtaining reliable estimates is beneficial for conflict resolution and postwar. Using appropriate statistical methods we correct for undercount and report unbiased estimates, with their associated confidence intervals. We discuss the territorial and time heterogeneity of civilian incidents. We argue that media sources, combined with appropriate methodologies, can be a timely and appropriate method for estimating the extent of harm in war times.

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Alessio Farcomeni

Alessio Farcomeni is Full Professor in Statistics at the University of Rome “Tor Vergata”. He has extensive experience with research collaborations in several fields, including social sciences, economics, medicine, ecology, engineering. His main research interests involve development of new statistical methodologies. He is currently author or co-author of more than 300 papers in international peer-reviewed journals, two books, several software packages. He is listed as one of the top Italian scientists by VIAAcademy and by Ioannidis et al. among the top 100,000 science wide. E-mail: [email protected]

Antonello Maruotti

Antonello Maruotti is Full Professor in Statistics at the Libera Università Maria Ss. Assunta. His professional interests include capture-recapture data modelling, hidden Markov models and latent class models in the social sciences. Email: [email protected]