https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1634-4065
![Sample our Area Studies journals, sign in here to start your access, latest two full volumes FREE to you for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5922/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Area-Studies.jpg"})
ABSTRACT
How are foreign policies developed during times of conflict? This question is often approached by scholars. Here I focus on individual policymakers’ decisions and employ a novel game-theory-inspired analytical framework in foreign policy analysis. The article studies Ukrainian leaders’ decision-making in relations with Russia and the European Union in the first turbulent months of the war in Donbas (April–August 2014). Understanding the beginning of this war holds high relevance in light of the current full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. This research is based on analysis of 38 interviews with EU, Ukrainian, and Russian policymakers, and analysis of documents.
Disclosure Statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
List Of Interviews
Int-1. Verygina, Iryna. 2020. “Governor of Luhansk region in May 2014–September 2014, Kyiv, 18. 02.2020.”
Int-2. Unnamed. 2020. “EU Official, Kyiv, 18. 02.2020.”
Int-3. Chudovskiy, Ihor. 2020. “Lawyer and civil activist from Luhansk, Kyiv, 27. 02.2020.”
Int-4. Ogrysko, Volodymyr. 2020. “Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine in 2007–2009, Director of Centre for Russian Studies, Kyiv, 28. 02.2020.”
Int-5. Chubarov, Refat. 2020. “Chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People from 2013, former MP and leader of Crimean Tatars in the world, Kyiv, 02. 03.2020.”
Int-7. Unnamed. 2020. “Advisor to one of the highest decision-makers in Ukraine in 2014–2019, Kyiv, 03. 03.2020.”
Int-8. Burakovsky, Igor. 2020. “Head of Board, Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, 05.03.2020, Kyiv.”
Int-9. Shulipa, Yuriy. 2020. “Director of the Institute of Russian Aggression Research, Russian Social Activist, Kyiv, 05. 03.2020.”
Int-10. Lytvyn, Mykola. 2020. “Chief of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine since 2003 to 2014, Kyiv, 06. 03.2020.”
Int-11. Teteruk, Andrii. 2020. “Commander of the Myrotvorets volunteer battalion, Member of Ukrainian Parliament in 2014–2019, 06.03.2020, Kyiv.”
Int-12. Unnamed. 2020. “EU Official, Brussels, 10. 03.2020.”
Int-13. Freudenstein, Roland. 2020. “Policy Director, Martens Centre, Brussels, 12. 03.2020.”
Int-14. Unnamed. 2020. “Ambassador of One of the Baltic States to Ukraine in 2012–2016, Skype, 20. 03.2020.”
Int-15. Waller, Nicholas. 2020. “Chief Redactor of New Europe, Independent Foreign Journalist in Ukraine, 01.04.2020, Skype.”
Int-16. Kozlovsky, Oleg. 2020. “Researcher at Amnesty International Eastern Europe & Central Asia in Moscow, Social Activist, 01.05.2020, Zoom.”
Int-17. Ponomarev, Ilya. 2020. “Russian politician and businessman, former member of the State Duma of Russia, 05.05.2020, Zoom.”
Int-18. Dobrokhotov, Roman. 2020. “Moscow-Based Journalist and Civil Activist, Editor-in-Chief of Investigative Online Newspaper the Insider, 08.05.2020, Zoom.”
Int-19. Unnamed. 2020. “Official Russian journalist, Zoom, 27. 05.2020.”
Int-20. Jozwiak, Rikard. 2020. “Brussels Correspondent for Radio Free Europe, 18.08.2020, Zoom.”
Int-21. Füle, Štefan. 2020. “The European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy in 2010–2014, Zoom, 10. 09.2020.”
Int-22. Semenchenko, Semen. 2020. “Founder of Donbass voluntary battalion, MP in 2014–2019, Zoom, 29. 09.2020.”
Int-23. Ušackas, Vygaudas. 2020. ‘Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania in 2008–2010, the European Union’s Ambassador to Russia in 2013–2017, Zoom, 2 October 2020’.
Int-24. Soboliev, Yehor. 2020. “Journalist, MP in 2014–2019, Zoom, 16. 10.2020.”
Int-25. Kowal, Paweł. 2020. “Polish Politician, Former Member of European Parliament (Head of EU Delegation to Ukraine), Current MP, 02.11.2020, Zoom.”
Int-26. Gretskiy, Igor. 2020. ‘Russian analyst and scholar, Associate Professor of the Department of International Relations in the Post-Soviet Space at St. Petersburg State University, 16 December 2020, Zoom.’
Int-27. Lubinets, Dmytro. 2020. “Dmytro Lubinets, Ukrainian MP since 2014, 29.12.2020, Zoom.”
Int-28. Kolerov, Modest. 2021. “Chief redactor of Russian information agencies Rux and Regnum, 27.01.2021, Zoom.”
Int-29. Volkov, Denis. 2021. “Deputy Director at the Levada Center in Moscow, 05.02.2021, Zoom.”
Int-30. Grant, Glen. 2021. “British Military Expert, National Security Expert at the Ukrainian Institute for Future, 18.02.2021, Zoom.”
Int-31. Unnamed. 2021. “MEP in 2004–2019, Member of the Greens–European Free Alliance Group in the European Parliament, 26.02.2021, Zoom.”
Int-32. Unnamed. 2021. “EU Official from the Support Group for Ukraine at the European Commission, 18.03.2021, Zoom.”
Int-33. Unnamed. 2021. “Senior EU Official at the European Commission, 26.03.2021, Zoom.”
Int-34. Van Rompuy, Herman. 2021. “Former Prime Minister of Belgium, President of the European Council in 2009 – 2014, 19.04.2021, Zoom.”
Int-35. Unnamed. 2021. “EU Official at the European Commission, 23.04.2021, Zoom.”
Int-36. Deshchytsia, Andrii. 2021. “Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine in February–June 2014, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Poland since 2014, 13.05.2021, Zoom.”
Int-37. Unnamed. 2021. “Senior EU Official, Involved in EU–Ukraine–Russia Economic Relations in 2014–2015, 17.05.2021, Zoom.”
Int-38. Unnamed. 2021. “Member of the German Parliament in 1994–2017, 02.06.2021, Zoom.”
Notes
1. Scholars distinguish the increase of violence in Donbas after the presidential elections on May 25 (Alexseev Citation2016; Marples Citation2016). Thus, events in April–May could be seen as “insurgencies” and Ukraine’s offensive in June and further battles in the summer as “open warfare.” I recognize the existence of Donbas locals who rebelled against Kyiv, but do not call the events “a civil war” due to the decisive role of Russia (curators, militants, weapons), which has been confirmed by the Glazyev tapes and Surkov leaks (Censor.net Citation2018; Surkov leaks Citation2016) among other sources. I use the term “war in Donbas” and refer to Donbas residents who rebelled against Kyiv as “rebels,” “insurgents,” and “separatists / Russia-backed separatists.” Ukrainian authorities also referred to them as “separatists” (Turchinov Citation2014).
2. The UPA (Ukrainian Insurgent Army) was a Ukrainian paramilitary formation that fought against both Nazi and Soviet forces in western Ukraine during the Second World War (Ukrainian Insurgent Army Citation1993).
3. The annexation of Crimea came as a shock to most EU and Ukrainian policymakers, although many of them now recognize that there were clear signals from Russia (e.g. Putin’s words to George W. Bush that if Ukraine was to join NATO, it would do so without Crimea and Donbas), as well as research and intelligence reports that altogether were not trusted due to the belief in partnership treaties and economic cooperation with Russia (Int-5 2020; Int-8 2020; Int-21 2020; Int-23 2020; Int-31 2021; Int-35 2021).
4. Novorossiya was a region in the Russian Empire, which included the South and East of present-day Ukraine (Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions plus Crimea).
5. Akhmetov allegedly wanted to agree with Russia that he would control Donbas, but remain loyal to Russia, but in the end Russia preferred to control the territory without him (Int-36 2021).