Russia’s Iron Horse and Its Logistics Limitations in the Ukrainian War

ABSTRACT

The slow advance of the Russian army in Ukraine in the first stage of its invasion and its eventual withdrawal from the Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions in April 2022 has raised several questions among analysts. Although this situation can be explained by numerous factors, this research note highlights how the Russian military’s organization of its logistics and resupply around railways has played a significant role in its failure to achieve the Kremlin’s initial objectives.

KEYWORDS:

• Russia–Ukraine War
• Logistics
• Resupply
• Railways

Notes

¹ Japanese intelligence has estimated that up to 20 Russian generals have perished in Ukraine since February 2022 while a Telegram channel operated by Colonel Anatoly Stefan of the Ukrainian armed forces has collected reports of Russian military deaths and claims that a total of 152 colonels and lieutenant colonels have been killed.

² Will Stewart and David Averre, ‘Putin ‘has lost 160 generals and colonels among 1,500 officers’ since the start of his war, Ukrainian military official claims’, Daily Mail, 28 November 2022, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11477163/Putin-lost-160-generals-colonels-1-500-officers-Ukrainian-military-official-claims.html

³ Brendan Cole, ‘Russian General Killed in War “Unbelievably High”: Japanese Intelligence’, Newsweek, 9 February 2023, https://www.newsweek.com/russian-generals-killed-war-ukraine-japanese-intelligence-1780131.

⁴ Jake Epstein, ‘An elite Russian military brigade was basically ‘wiped out’, taking so many losses in Ukraine that it will ‘take years to rebuild’, report says’, Business Insider, 16 December 2022, https://www.businessinsider.com/elite-russian-brigade-basically-wiped-out-in-ukraine-losses-report-2022-12.

5 Mark Urban, ‘The heavy losses of an elite Russian regiment in Ukraine’, BBC, 2 April 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60946340.

⁶ The scattering of Russian forces over too many fronts in front of a prepared, well-equipped, and dedicated enemy forced its high command to order their re-deployment in a more concentrated area only a few weeks after the start of the invasion.

⁷ Lyubimiigorod, ‘Охрана улиц Киева» и «зачистка»: сибирские росгвардейцы рассказали следствию о своих задачах в Украине’, 23 May, 2022, https://lyubimiigorod.ru/novosibirsk/news/15970696?ysclid=lcrr2nt623309807186.:

⁸ It is important to remember that before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many leaders were questioning NATO, such as French President Emmanuel Macron who called it ‘brain dead’ (en état de mort cérébrale).

⁹ James Risen, ‘U.S. Intelligence Says Putin Made a Last-Minute Decision to Invade Ukraine’, The Intercept, 11 March 2022, https://theintercept.com/2022/03/11/russia-putin-ukraine-invasion-us-intelligence/.

¹⁰ In comparison, Canada, the second-largest country in the world after Russia, has less than 50,000 kilometers of railway tracks.

¹¹ Alex Vershinin, ‘Feeding the bear: a closer look at Russian army logistics and the fait accompli’, War on the Rocks, 23 November 2022, https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/.

¹² For instance, during the war in Georgia in 2008, the Russian forces were outmatched by the enemy. Thanks to the railway system, it only took them 3 days to overmatch them. As Michael Kofman wrote: ‘Clearly, the Russian military knows how to move metal, in large quantities, and do it well’ (Michael Kofman, ‘Russian Performance in the Russo-Georgian War Revisited’, War on the Rocks, 4 September 2018, https://warontherocks.com/2018/09/russian-performance-in-the-russo-georgian-war-revisited/).

¹³ Marjorie van Leijen, ‘Railway between Ukraine and Russia completely destroyed’, Railfreight.com, 26 February 2022, https://www.railfreight.com/beltandroad/2022/02/26/railway-between-ukraine-and-russia-completely-destroyed/.

¹⁴ Thomas Latschan, ‘Ukraine: Will the railroad be what decides the War?’, DW.com, 6 May 2022, https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-will-the-railroad-be-what-decides-the-war/a-61714831.

¹⁵ Oryx, ‘Attack on Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine’, 24 February 2022, https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html.

¹⁶ Jonathan Landay, ‘Russian attacks on rail system fail to paralyse “lifeline of Ukraine”’, Reuters, 9 May 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-attacks-rail-system-fail-paralyze-lifeline-ukraine-2022-05-08/.

¹⁷ Alex Vershinin, 2002.

¹⁸ Bonnie Berkowitz and Artur Galocha, ‘Why the Russian military is bogged down by logistics in Ukraine’,Washington Post, 30 March 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/30/russia-military-logistics-supply-chain/.

¹⁹ Lester W. Grau and Charles K. Bartles, ‘The Russian Way of War: Force Structure, Tactics, and Modernization of the Russian Ground Forces’, Foreign Military Studies Office, 2016, p. 235, https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/hot%20spots/documents/russia/2017-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdf.

²⁰ Berkowitz and Galocha, 2002.

²¹ A threat that limited the Soviets’ capacity to resupply its troops with helicopters or planes.

²² C.J. Dick, ‘Mujahideen Tactics in the Soviet-Afghan War’, Conflict Studies Research Centre, January 2002, https://edocs.nps.edu/AR/org/CSRC/csrc_jan_02.pdf.

²³ Obviously, the failure of this highly tactical objective for the Russian military cannot be separated from all the other flaws of the Russian plan and support from U.S. intelligence.

²⁴ They were ultimately able to do so, but by that time the airstrip had been damaged to the point where it was no longer usable.

²⁵ David Axe, ‘Five Brave Ukrainian MIG Pilots Blunted the Russian Attack on Kiyv on Day One of the War. Not All of Them Survived’, Forbes, 9 December 2022, https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/12/09/five-brave-ukrainian-mig-pilots-blunted-the-russian-attack-on-kyiv-on-day-one-of-the-war-not-all-of-them-survived/?sh=68e70c756711.

²⁶ Vitali Hnidyi and Max Hunder, ‘Russia gives up key northeast towns as Ukrainian forces advances’, Reuters, 11 September 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-troops-raise-flag-over-railway-hub-advance-threatens-turn-into-rout-2022-09-10/

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Jean-François Caron

Jean-François Caron is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Nazarbayev University and a research fellow at the Institute of Political Science and Administration at the University of Opole.