‘Just another story that was prepared in advance’ - political distrust, Islamism, and conspiratorial thinking in Arab public opinion on the Islamic State

ABSTRACT

In many Arab countries, political and media discourse about the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS) tended to blend discussions of root causes with conspiratorial narratives about the perceived malign actions and motives of external actors. Investigating the role which conspiratorial narratives play in (de)stabilizing political order across the Arab world, this analysis demonstrates that distrust in the political system and support for Islamist ideas are associated with the willingness to blame external actors such as the United States and Israel for the creation of the Islamic State. The results thus demonstrate how closely intertwined the production and spread of conspiracy theories are with the crisis of Islamist ideology and authoritarian governance in the Arab world.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

¹ A. Taylor, ‘How Hillary Clinton created the Islamic State—a new Mideast conspiracy theory’, Washington Post, August 12, 2014. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/08/12/how-hillary-clinton-created-the-islamic-state-a-new-mideast-conspiracy-theory/.

² R. Mackey, ‘Borne by Facebook, Conspiracy Theory That U.S. Created ISIS Spreads across Middle East’, New York Times, August 26, 2014. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/27/world/middleeast/isis-conspiracy-theories-include-a-purported-american-plot.html.

³ BBC, “The US, IS and the conspiracy theory sweeping Lebanon’, 12 August 2014 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28745990; and Egyptian Chronicles, ‘It all Started with Egyptian Facebook Pages’, August 18, 2014. https://egyptianchronicles.blogspot.com/2014/08/it-all-started-with-egyptian-facebook.html.

⁴ Egyptian Chronicles, ‘It all Started’.

⁵ M. Lynch, ‘Would arming the Syrian rebels have stopped the Islamic State’, Monkey Cage, August 11, 2014, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/08/11/would-arming-syrias-rebels-have-stopped-the-islamic-state/?arc404=true.

⁶ B. Nyhan & T. Zeitzoff, ‘Conspiracy and Misperception Belief in the Middle East and North Africa’, Journal of Politics 80, no. 4 (2018): 1400-4.

⁷ L.C. Brown, International Politics and the Middle East: Old Rules, Dangerous Game (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984).

⁸ L. Binder, ‘The Middle East as a Subordinate International System’, World Politics 10, no. 3 (1958): 408–29.

⁹ C. Phillips, Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2018).

¹⁰ C. Lister, The Syrian Jihad: Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State and the Evolution of an Insurgency (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016); F. Gerges, ISIS: A History (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2022). For a review of further sources on the Islamic State, see G. Stansfield, ‘Review: Explaining the Aims, Rise, and Impact of the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham’, Middle East Journal 70, no. 1 (2016): 146-151.

¹¹ K. Douglas et al., ‘Understanding Conspiracy Theories’, Political Psychology 40, no. 1 (2019): 3-35.

¹² B. Albertson & K. Guiler, ‘Conspiracy theories, election rigging, and support for democratic norms’, Research & Politics, July-September (2020): 1-9; M. Barkun, ‘President Trump and the ‘Fringe”’, Terrorism and Political Violence 29 no. 3 (2017): 437-43.

¹³ L. Jacobson & A. Sherman, ‘Donald Trump’s Pants on Fire claim that Barack Obama ‘founded” ISIS, Hillary Clinton was ‘cofounder’, August 11, 2016. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2016/aug/11/donald-trump/donald-trump-pants-fire-claim-obama-founded-isis-c/.

¹⁴ H. Brands & P. Feaver, ‘Was the Rise of ISIS inevitable?’ Survival, 59, no. 3 (2017): 7-54.

¹⁵ Jacobson & Sherman, ‘Donald Trump’s Pants’.

¹⁶ L. Robertson, ‘Trump’s ISIS Conspiracy Theory’, June 16, 2016, https://www.factcheck.org/2016/06/trumps-isis-conspiracy-theory/.

¹⁷ Ibid.

¹⁸ B. Usher, ‘Joe Biden apologised over IS remarks, but was he right?’ BBC News October 7, 2014, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-29528482.

¹⁹ H. Behr & L. Berger, ‘The Challenge of Talking about Terrorism: The EU and the Arab Debate on the Causes of Islamist Terrorism’, Terrorism and Political Violence 21, no. 4 (2009): 539-557.

²⁰ M. Butter & M. Reinkowski, ‘Introduction: Mapping Conspiracy Theories in the United States and the Middle East’, in Conspiracy Theories in the United States and the Middle East: A comparative Approach, eds. M. Butter & M. Reinkowski (Berlin: De Gruyter, 2014), 22.

²¹ A.J. Kuperman, ‘A Model Humanitarian Intervention? Reassessing NATO’s Libya Campaign’, International Security, 38, no. 1 (2013): 105-136; M.A. Baum & Y.M. Zhukov, ‘Filtering revolution: Reporting bias in international newspaper coverage of the Libyan civil war’, Journal of Peace Research 52, no. 3 (2015): 384-400.

²² Phillips, The Battle for Syria.

²³ M. Darwich, ‘Escalation in Failed Military Interventions: Saudi and Emirati Quagmires in Yemen’, Global Policy 11, no. 1 (2020): 103-12; L. Ferro, ‘Western Gunrunners, (Middle-)Eastern Casualties: Unlawfully Trading Arms with States Engulfed in Yemeni Civil War?’, Journal of Conflict and Security Law 24, No. 3 (2019): 503–35.

²⁴ T. Aistrope & R. Bleiker, ‘Conspiracy and foreign policy’, Security Dialogue, 49, no. 3 (2018): 165-182.

²⁵ G. Koehler-Derrick, R.A. Nielsen & D. Romney, ‘Conspiracy Theories in the Egyptian State-Controlled Press’, unpublished manuscript, 2017, https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/gkd/files/conspiracy_10april2017_aalims.pdf.

²⁶ C.R. Sunstein & A. Vermeule, ‘Conspiracy Theories: Causes and Cures’, Journal of Political Philosophy 17, no. 2 (2009): 202-227.

²⁷ S. Marmura, ‘Likely and Unlikely Stories: Conspiracy Theories in an Age of Propaganda’, International Journal of Communication 8 (2014): 2377-95.

²⁸ S.J. Baele, ‘Conspiratorial Narratives in Violent Political Actors’ Language’, Journal of Language and Social Psychology, 38, no. 5-6 (2019): 706-734; S.J. Baele, G. Bettiza, K.A. Boyd & T.G. Coan, ‘ISIS’s Clash of Civilizations: Constructing the “West” in Terrorist Propaganda’, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 44, no. 11 (2021), 887-919.

²⁹ E. Trager, ‘Why Is the Middle East Still in Thrall to 9/11 Conspiracy Theories?’ The New Republic, September 3, 2011. https://newrepublic.com/article/94546/middle-east-radical-conspiracy-theories.

³⁰ K. Forster, ‘Egyptian state media claims Isis is “made up” and 9/11 was carried out by West to justify war on terror’, The Independent, September 15, 2016. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/egyptian-9-11-inside-job-state-media-war-terror-isis-made-al-ahram-noha-al-sharnoubi-columnist-a7308926.html.

³¹ V. Cheterian, ‘ISIS and the Killing Fields of the Middle East’, Survival 57, no. 2 (2015): 106.

³² C. Bunzel, ‘The Kingdom and the Caliphate. Duel of the Islamic States’, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (February 2016): 23, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/CP_265_Bunzel_Islamic_States_Final.pdf.

³³ T. Goertzel, ‘Belief in Conspiracy Theories’, Political Psychology 15, no. 4 (1994): 731-42.

³⁴ M. Diamond, ‘No Laughing Matter: Post-September 11 Political Cartoons in Arab/Muslim Newspapers’, Political Communication, 19, no. 2 (2002): 251-272; M. Gray, ‘Revisiting Saddam Hussein’s Political Language: The Sources and Roles of Conspiracy Theories’, Arab Studies Quarterly, 32, no. 1 (2010): 28-46; G. Kraemer, ‘Antisemitism in the Muslim World: A Critical Review’, Die Welt des Islams 46, no. 3 (2006): 243-76.

³⁵ E. Webman, ‘The “Jew” as a Metaphor for Evil in Arab Public Discourse’, The Journal of the Middle East and Africa 6, No. 3-4 (2015): 276.

³⁶ Anti-Defamation League, ‘Egyptian Minister Repeats Claim That Jews Created ISIS’, February 6, 2015. https://www.adl.org/blog/egyptian-minister-repeats-claim-that-jews-created-isis.

³⁷ Anti-Defamation League, ‘Claims That ISIS Has Jewish Roots Grow in Muslim World’, August 26, 2014. https://www.adl.org/blog/claims-that-isis-has-jewish-roots-grow-in-muslim-world.

³⁸ Webman, ‘The “Jew” as a Metaphor’, 278.

³⁹ Anti-Defamation League, ‘Anti-Israel Conspiracy Theories Appear in Arabic-Language Media in Wake of Sinai Massacre’, 30 November 2017, https://www.adl.org/blog/anti-israel-conspiracy-theories-appear-in-arabic-language-media-in-wake-of-sinai-massacre.

⁴⁰ Ibid.

⁴¹ Anti-Defamation League, ‘Egyptian Minister Repeats Claim’; Anti-Defamation League, ‘Claims that ISIS’; D. Rickenbacher, ‘The ‘War Against Islam”: How a Conspiracy Theory Drove and Shaped the Islamist Movement’, European Eye on Radicalization, December 6, 2019. https://eeradicalization.com/the-war-against-islam-how-a-conspiracy-theory-drove-and-shaped-the-islamist-movement/; and N. Youssef, ‘These are the Arab media conspiracy theories about ISIL’, Quartz, April 7, 2015. https://qz.com/372809/these-are-the-arab-media-conspiracy-theories-about-isil/.

⁴² D. Romney et al., ‘The Enemy of My Enemy Is Not My Friend: Arabic Twitter Sentiment toward ISIS and the United States’, June 6, 2020. Unpublished Research Note, https://scholar.harvard.edu/dtingley/publications/enemy-my-enemy-not-my-friend-arabic-twitter-sentiment-towards-isis-and-united.

⁴³ Youssef, ‘These are the Arab’.

⁴⁴ Behr/Berger, ‘The Challenge of Talking’.

⁴⁵ N. Hashemi, ‘The ISIS Crisis and the Broken Politics of the Middle East’, Boston University Institute on Culture, Religion & World Affairs (2016): 2, https://www.bu.edu/cura/files/2016/12/hashemi-paper1.pdf.

⁴⁶ K. Dalacoura, Islamist terrorism and Democracy in the Middle East (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2011).

⁴⁷ J.-P. Azam & A. Delacroix, ‘Aid and the delegated fight against terrorism’, Review of Development Economics 10, No. 2 (2006): 330–44.

⁴⁸ A.B. Krueger & D.D. Laitin, ‘Kto Kogo?: A Cross-Country Study of the Origins and Targets of Terrorism’, in Terrorism, Economic Development, and Political Openness, eds. P. Keefer & N. Loayza (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010), 148-173.

⁴⁹ J.W. Koo & A. Murdie, ‘Do NGO Restrictions Limit Terrorism? Smear Campaigns or Counterterrorism Tools’, Journal of Global Security Studies 7, No. 1 (2022).

⁵⁰ J.I. Walsh & J.A. Piazza, ‘Why Respecting Physical Integrity Rights Reduces Terrorism’, Comparative Political Studies 43, No. 5 (2010): 551-77.

⁵¹ Sunstein & Vermeule, ‘Conspiracy Theories’, 205.

⁵² M. Zonis & C. Joseph, ‘Conspiracy thinking in the Middle East’, Political Psychology 15, no. 3 (1994): 444.

⁵³ M. Barkun, Culture of Conspiracy: Apocalyptic Visions in Contemporary America (Berkeley: University of California Press), 3.

⁵⁴ A. Graf, S. Fathi & L. Paul, Orientalism and Conspiracy. Politics and Conspiracy Theory in the Islamic World (London: Bloomsbury, 2010).

⁵⁵ Sunstein & Vermeule, ‘Conspiracy Theories’.

⁵⁶ Romney et al., ‘The Enemy of my Enemy’.

⁵⁷ L. Berger, ‘Foreign policies or culture: What shapes Muslim public opinion on political violence against the United States?’ Journal of Peace Research, 51, no. 6 (2014): 782–796.

⁵⁸ Romney et al., ‘The Enemy of my Enemy’.

⁵⁹ Ibid.

⁶⁰ M. Fenster, Conspiracy Theories: Secrecy and Power in American Culture, rev. ed. (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 2008), 90.

⁶¹ Aistrope & Bleiker, ‘Conspiracy and foreign policy’, p. 165.

⁶² Aistrope & Bleiker, ‘Conspiracy and foreign policy’; Gray, ‘Revisiting Saddam’s Political Language’; M. Gray, ‘Explaining Conspiracy Theories in Modern Arab Middle Eastern Political Discourse: Some Problems and Limitations of the Literature’, Critique: Critical Middle Eastern Studies, 17, no. 2 (2008): 155-174; Romney et al., ‘The Enemy of my Enemy’; and Zonis & Joseph, ‘Conspiracy thinking’.

⁶³ Butter & Reinkowski, ‘Introduction’, 26.

⁶⁴ A.N. Hamdan, ‘Breaker of Barriers? Notes on the Geopolitics of the Islamic State in Iraq and Sham’, Geopolitics 21, no. 3 (2016): 605-627.

⁶⁵ See Hashemi’s criticism of Arab discourses mentioned above, ‘The ISIS Crisis’.

⁶⁶ Koehler-Derrick et al., ‘Conspiracy Theories’, 12.

⁶⁷ P.J. Leman & M. Cinnirella, ‘A major event has a major cause: Evidence for the role of heuristics in reasoning about conspiracy theories’, Social Psychological Review, 9, no. 2 (2007): 18-28.

⁶⁸ Ibid.

⁶⁹ Trager, ‘Why Is the Middle East?’.

⁷⁰ Sunstein & Vermeule, ‘Conspiracy Theories’, 208.

⁷¹ Ibid.

⁷² Butter & Reinkowski, ‘Introduction’.

⁷³ Sunstein & Vermeule, ‘Conspiracy Theories’.

⁷⁴ Aistrope & Bleiker, ‘Conspiracy and foreign policy’, 166.

⁷⁵ Hashemi, ‘The ISIS Crisis’; H. Melham, ‘Enough lies, the Arab body politic created the ISIS cancer’, Al-Arabiya, August 16, 2014, https://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/08/16/Enough-lies-the-Arab-body-politic-created-the-ISIS-cancer.

⁷⁶ For overviews, see Gray, ‘Revisiting Saddam’s Political Language’; Gray, ‘Explaining Conspiracy Theories’; Koehler-Derrick et al. ‘Conspiracy Theories’.

⁷⁷ Aistrope & Bleiker, ‘Conspiracy and foreign policy’, 172.

⁷⁸ A. Al-Kandari, ‘Arab news networks and conspiracy theories about America: A political gratification study’, Journal of Arab & Muslim Media Research 3, no. 1+2 (2010): 59-76; Sunstein & Vermeule, ‘Conspiracy Theories’.

⁷⁹ P. Silverstein, ‘Regimes of (un)truth: conspiracy theory and the transnationalization of the Algerian civil war’, Middle East Report, 214 (2000): 8.

⁸⁰ Ibid., 10.

⁸¹ Al-Kandari, ‘Arab news networks’; N. Pratt & D. Rezk, ‘Securitizing the Muslim Brotherhood: state violence and authoritarianism in Egypt after the Arab Spring’, Security Dialogue, 50, no. 3 (2019): 239-256.

⁸² Webman, ‘The “Jew” as a Metaphor’, 278.

⁸³ Taylor, ‘How Hillary Clinton created’.

⁸⁴ Koehler-Derrick et al., ‘Conspiracy Theories’.

⁸⁵ Mackey, ‘Borne by Facebook’.

⁸⁶ Human Rights Watch, ‘All According to Plan. The Rab’a Massacre and Mass Killings of Protesters in Egypt’, August 12, 2014 https://www.hrw.org/report/2014/08/12/all-according-plan/raba-massacre-and-mass-killings-protesters-egypt.

⁸⁷ The Economist (2013), ‘Arab Conspiracy Theories. Strange Bedfellows’, August 31, 2013. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2013/08/31/strange-bedfellows.

⁸⁸ I. Yilmaz & E. Shipoli, ‘Use of past collective traumas, fear and conspiracy theories for securitization of the opposition and authoritarianisation: the Turkish case’, Democratization 29, No. 2 (2022): 320-36.

⁸⁹ I. Yablokov, ‘Conspiracy Theories as a Russian Public Diplomacy Tool: The Case of Russia Today (RT)’, Politics 35, no. 3-4 (2015): 301-15.

⁹⁰ M. Kragh, E. Andermo & L. Makashova, ‘Conspiracy theories in Russian security thinking’, Journal of Strategic Studies, (2020) online first; Y. Yablokov, ‘Pussy Riot as agent provocateur: conspiracy theories and the media construction of nation in Putin’s Russia’, Nationalities Papers 42, No. 4 (2014): 622-36.

⁹¹ N. Tucker, ‘Public and State Responses to ISIS Messaging: Kyrgyzstan’, CERIA BRIEF, No. February 14, 2016. https://centralasiaprogram.org/archives/9301.

⁹² H. Iqtidar, ‘Conspiracy Theory as Political Imaginary: Blackwater in Pakistan’, Political Studies 64, no. 1 (2016): 200-15.

⁹³ A. Akhtar & A. Ahmad, ‘Conspiracy and statecraft in postcolonial states: theories and realities of the hidden hand in Pakistan’s war on terror’, Third World Quarterly 36, no. 1 (2015): 96.

⁹⁴ H. Yusuf, ‘Conspiracy Fever: the US, Pakistan and its Media’, Survival 53, no. 4 (2011): 95-118.

⁹⁵ Zonis & Joseph, ‘Conspiracy thinking’.

⁹⁶ Sunstein & Vermeule, ‘Conspiracy Theories’.

⁹⁷ Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies, ‘Arab Authoritarianism: The Incubators of Terror’, August 10, 2017. https://cihrs.org/new-book-arab-authoritarianismthe-incubators-of-terror/?lang=en; and Walsh & Piazza, ‘Why Respecting Physical Integrity’.

⁹⁸ Sunstein & Vermeule, ‘Conspiracy Theories’.

⁹⁹ Akhtar & Ahmad, ‘Conspiracy and statecraft’.

¹⁰⁰ Leman & Cinnirella, ‘A major event’.

¹⁰¹ Fenster, ‘Conspiracy Theories’, 9.

¹⁰² B. Castanho Silva, F. Vegetti & L. Littvay, ‘The Elite Is Up to Something: Exploring the Relation Between Populism and Belief in Conspiracy Theories’, Swiss Political Science Review 23, no. 4 (2017): 423-43.

¹⁰³ Gray, ‘Revisiting Saddam’s Political Language’; Gray, ‘Explaining Conspiracy Theories’; Nyhan & Zeitzoff, ‘Conspiracy and Misperception Belief’.

¹⁰⁴ E. Abrahamian, Khomeinism: Essays on the Islamic Republic (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993), 111.

¹⁰⁵ Akhtar & Ahmad, ‘Conspiracy and statecraft’, 97.

¹⁰⁶ Ibid., 99.

¹⁰⁷ L. Blaydes & D. Linzer, ‘Elite Competition, Religiosity, and Anti-Americanism in the Islamic World’, American Political Science Review, 106, no. 2 (2012): 225-243.

¹⁰⁸ Ibid.

¹⁰⁹ Melham, ‘Enough lies’.

¹¹⁰ L. Berger, ‘Securitization across borders—commonalities and contradictions in European and Arab counterterrorism discourses’, Global Affairs, 7, No. 5 (2021): 813-830; M. Darwich, ‘Creating the enemy, constructing the threat: the diffusion of repression against the Muslim Brotherhood in the Middle East’, Democratization 24, no. 7 (2017): 1289-1306; and Pratt & Rezk, ‘Securitizing the Muslim Brotherhood’.

¹¹¹ Butter & Reinkowski, ‘Introduction’; and R. Paz, ‘Islamists and Anti-Americanism’, Middle East Review of International Affairs 7, no. 4 (2003): 53-61.

¹¹² D. Stoica, ‘Do Modern Radicals Believe in Their Mythologies? A Comparison between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Legion of the Archangel Michael in the Light of Four Political Mythologies’, Politics, Religion & Ideology 15, no. 1 (2014): 103-35.

¹¹³ P. Nesser, ‘Military Interventions, Jihadi Networks, and Terrorist Entrepreneurs: How the Islamic State Terror Wave Rose So High in Europe’, CTC Sentinel 12, no. 3 (2019): 15-21.

¹¹⁴ Romney et al., ‘The Enemy of my Enemy’.

¹¹⁵ Brands & Feaver, ‘Was the Rise’.

¹¹⁶ Nyhan & Zeitzoff, ‘Conspiracy and Misperception Belief’.

¹¹⁷ Ibid.

¹¹⁸ H. Tønnessen, ‘The Islamic State after the Caliphate’, Perspectives on Terrorism 13, no. 1 (2019): 2-12.

¹¹⁹ Phillips, The Battle for Syria; D. Maher & M. Pieper, ‘Russian Intervention in Syria: Exploring the Nexus between Regime Consolidation and Energy Transnationalisation’, Political Studies 69, no. 4 (2021): 944-64.

¹²⁰ L. Berger, ‘Sharia, Islamism, and Arab support for democracy’, Democratization, 26, no. 2 (2019): 309-326; and S. Ciftci, ‘Secular-Islamist Cleavage, Values, and Support for Democracy and Shari’a in the Arab World’, Political Research Quarterly, 66, no. 4 (2013): 781–793.

¹²¹ Al-Kandari, ‘Arab news networks’; M. Gentzkow & J. Shapiro, ‘Media, education and anti-Americanism in the Muslim world’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18, no. 3 (2004): 117-133; Goertzel, ‘Belief in Conspiracy Theories’.

¹²² Al-Kandari, ‘Arab news networks’.

¹²³ Sunstein & Vermeule, ‘Conspiracy Theories’, 204.

¹²⁴ Ibid.

¹²⁵ Gray, ‘Revisiting Saddam’s Political Language’.

¹²⁶ J. Oliver & T. Wood, ‘Conspiracy Theories and the Paranoid Style(s) of Mass Opinion’, American Journal of Political Science 58, no. 4 (2014): 952-66.

¹²⁷ Nyhan & Zeitzoff, ‘Conspiracy and Misperception Belief’.

¹²⁸ See also Romney et al., ‘The Enemy of my Enemy’.

¹²⁹ This is another function of conspiracy theories. See Douglas et al., ‘Understanding Conspiracy Theories’.

¹³⁰ D. Jolley & K. Douglas, ‘The social consequences of conspiracism: Exposure to conspiracy theories decreases intentions to engage in politics and to reduce one’s carbon footprint’, British Journal of Psychology 105, no. 1 (2014): 35-56.

¹³¹ Gray, ‘Revisiting Saddam’s Political Language’.

¹³² A. Amarasingam & M.A. Argentino, ‘The QAnon Conspiracy Theory: A Security Threat in the Making?, CTC Sentinel 13, no. 7 (2020): 37-44; and B.A. Bond & R. Neville-Shepard, ‘The Rise of Presidential Eschatology: Conspiracy Theories, Religion, and the January 6th Insurrection’, American Behavioural Scientist, (2021) Online first.