Understanding the Jihadi Salafi threat in Jordan in 2011-2017

ABSTRACT

The number of Jordanian foreign fighters that joined extremist groups in Syria and Iraq since 2011 has drawn attention to the Jihadi Salafi scene in Jordan. This article examines the profiles of 780 Jihadi Salafis who were prosecuted in 2011–2017 on terrorism-related charges by the State Security Court in Jordan. The study attributes the rise of Jihadi Salafism in Jordan to socio-economic relative deprivation. The dissatisfaction of the employed and/or educated with their status explains relative deprivation, which is also an urban central phenomenon in Jordan. However, relative deprivation does not turn into radicalization unless experienced within a closely knit social network. The article concludes that Jihadi Salafism is a middle-class urban and central phenomenon in Jordan, which is likely to continue due to unaddressed frustrations, unmet identity needs, and the social network of radicals.

Acknowledgments

Moamen Gouda acknowledges financial support from Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, as well as support from the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2020S1A5C2A01093123).

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Correction Statement

This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

Notes

¹ Henrik Gråtrud, ‘Urban Terrorism in the Arab World: Introducing a Dataset of Jihadist Attack Plots in Jordan’, Terrorism and Political Violence (2021), 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2021.1957674 (accessed 25 February 2022).

² Counter Extremism Project, ‘Jordan: Extremism and Counter-Extremism’, Counter Extremism Project, https://www.counterextremism.com/countries/jordan (accessed 15 March 2021).

³ Richard Barrett, Beyond the Caliphate: Foreign Fighters and the Threat of Returnees (The Soufan Center and The Global Strategy Network, October 2017).

⁴ Ibid.

⁵ Mohammad Abu Rumman and Musa Shteiwi, Sociology of Extremism and Terrorism in Jordan: An Empirical and Analytical Study (Amman: Centre for Strategic Studies, 2018).

⁶ Séamus A. Power, ‘The Deprivation-Protest Paradox: How the Perception of Unfair Economic Inequality Leads to Civic Unrest.’ Current Anthropology 59, no. 6 (2018), 765–89.

⁷ Abu Rumman and Shteiwi, Sociology of Extremism.

⁸ Henrik Gråtrud, ‘When Insularity Becomes a Problem: The Literature on Jihadism in Jordan’, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism (2020), 9, https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2020.1723282 (accessed 27 January 2022).

⁹ Ibid, 10.

¹⁰ Heather J. Smith, Thomas F. Pettigrew, Gina M. Pippin, and Silvana Bialosiewicz, ‘Relative Deprivation: A Theoretical and Meta-Analytic Review: A Theoretical and Meta-Analytic Review’, Personality and Social Psychology Review 16 (3) (2012): 203–32; Eran Zaidise, Daphna Canetti-Nisim, and Ami Pedahzur, ‘Politics of God or Politics of Man? The Role of Religion and Deprivation in Predicting Support for Political Violence in Israel’, Political Studies 55, no. 3 (2007): 499–521.

¹¹ Iain Walker and Thomas F. Pettigrew, ‘Relative Deprivation Theory: An Overview and Conceptual Critique’, British Journal of Social Psychology 23, no. 4 (2011): 301–310; and Walter G. Runciman, Relative Deprivation and Social Justice: A Study of Attitudes to Social Inequality in Twentieth-Century England (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1966).

¹² Ted Robert Gurr, Why Men Rebel (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1971).

¹³ Heather J. Smith, ‘Relative Deprivation: A Theoretical and Meta-Analytic Critique’, Personality and Social Psychology Review 16, no. 3 (2012), 203–232.

¹⁴ Alex I. Macdougall et al., ‘Different Strokes for Different Folks: The Role of Psychological Needs and Other Risk Factors in Early Radicalisation’, International Journal of Development Science 12, no. 1–2 (2018), 37–50.

¹⁵ Smith et. al.: 203.

¹⁶ Ibid: 221.

¹⁷ Ibid: 221.

¹⁸ Jonas R. Kunst and Milan Obaidi, ‘Understanding Violent Extremism in the 21st Century: The (Re)Emerging Role of Relative Deprivation’, Current Opinion in Psychology 35 (2020): 55–59; and Kees van den Bos, ‘Unfairness and Radicalisation’, Annual Review of Psychology 71, no. 1 (2020): 563–88.

¹⁹ Jean-Paul Carvalho, A Theory of the Islamic Revival (Oxford: University of Oxford, 2009).

²⁰ Kartika Bhatia and Hafez Ghanem, How Do Education and Unemployment Affect Support for Violent Extremism? Evidence from Eight Arab Countries, Brookings Global Economy & Development Working Paper 102 (March 2017), https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/global_20170322_violent-extremism.pdf (accessed 20 February 2022)

²¹ Courtney Freer, ‘State Religious Authorities in Rentier Economies and the Management of Independent Islamism’, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 47, no. 1 (2020): 42–61.

²² Kamaldeep Bhui, Nasir Warfa, and Edgar Jones, ‘Is Violent Radicalisation Associated with Poverty, Migration, Poor Self-Reported Health and Common Mental Disorders?’, PloS One 9, no. 3 (2014): e90718; Simon Ozer, Milan Obaidi, and Stefan Pfattheicher, ‘Group Membership and Radicalisation: A Cross-National Investigation of Collective Self-Esteem Underlying Extremism’, Group Processes & Intergroup Relations 23, no. 8 (2020): 1230–48; Alan B. Krueger, What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007).

²³ Diego Gambetta and Steffen Hertog, Engineers of Jihad: The Curious Connection between Violent Extremism and Education (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2018).

²⁴ Sean Yom and Katrina Sammour, ‘Counterterrorism and Youth Radicalisation in Jordan: Social and Political Dimensions’, CTCSentinel 10, no. 4 (2017), Counterterrorism and Youth Radicalization in Jordan: Social and Political Dimensions—Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (usma.edu); Neven Bondokji, Kim Wilkinson, and Leen Aghabi, Trapped Between Destructive Choices: Radicalization Drives Affecting Youth in Jordan (Amman: WANA Institute, 2016).

²⁵ Bondokji, Wilkinson, and Aghabi, Trapped Between Destructive Choices, 20.

²⁶ Neven Bondokji and Barik Mhadeen, White Paper: Towards More Effective Human Security Approaches in the Context of the Emerging Threat of Violent Radicalization in Jordan, Lebanon, and Tunisia (Amman: WANA Institute, 2019), 10.

²⁷ International Crisis Group, Jordan’s 9/11: Dealing with Jihadi Islamism, International Crisis Group (November 2005): 4.

²⁸ Abu Rumman and Shteiwi, Sociology of Extremism; Mercy Corps, From Jordan to Jihad: The Lure of Syria’s Violent Extremist Groups, 2015, 3–4.

²⁹ Anna Fraher Klingensmith, ‘The Role of Local Communities in Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (P/CVE) in Jordan,’ Independent Study Project Collection 3153 (2019), 19–20.

³⁰ Ibid.

³¹ Mercy Corps, Jordan to Jihad.

³² Thomas Hegghammer, ‘Terrorist Recruitment and Radicalisation in Saudi Arabia’, Middle East Policy Winter 13, no. 4 (2006): 39–60.

³³ Scott Atran, ‘The Devoted Actor: Unconditional Commitment and Intractable Conflict across Cultures’, Current Anthropology 57, no. S13 (2016): S192-S203.

³⁴ Alaa’ al-Rawashdeh, ‘Ideological Extremism from the Perspective of Jordanian Youth (in Arabic)’, Arab Journal for Security Studies and Training 31 (2015).

³⁵ Yom and Sammour, ‘Youth Radicalization in Jordan’, 28.

³⁶ Ibid.

³⁷ Ibid.

³⁸ Julian Richards, Extremism, Radicalization and Security: An Identity Theory Approach (Buckingham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017).

³⁹ Anne Speckhard, The Jihad in Jordan: Drivers of Radicalization into Violent Extremism in Jordan, ICSVE Research Reports (25 March 2017).

⁴⁰ Atran, ‘ISIS is a Revolution’; and Associated Press, ‘Expert: Friends Recruit Most Islamic State Fighters’, Associated Press, 25 November 2015.

⁴¹ Hegghammer, ‘Terrorist Recruitment’, 39–60.

⁴² Mohammad Abu Rumman, I am Salafi: A Study of the Actual and Imagined Identities of Salafis (Amman: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, 2014), 202–212.

⁴³ Abu Rumman and Shtewi, Sociology of Extremism, 111–190.

⁴⁴ Scott Atran and Richard Davis, ‘Executive Summary’, in Theoretical Frames on Pathways to Violent Radicalization, (Washington D.C.: ARTIS, 2009), 5–12.

⁴⁵ Joad Wagemakers, Salafism (Oxford Research Encyclopaedia of Religion, 2016); Kirk H. Sowell, Jordanian Salafism and the Jihad in Syria (Washington D.C: Hudson Institute, 2015), 3.

⁴⁶ Sowell, Jordanian Salafism, 3–4.

⁴⁷ For a brief review, see Abu Rumman, I am a Salafi, 41–54.

⁴⁸ Al-Maqdisi, dialogue on ‘The Forum for Monotheism and Jihad’, Alsunnah Website, http://www.alsunnah.info/r?i=j37307wg (accessed 19 March 2021).

⁴⁹ On the disagreements between al-Qaeda and Daesh, see Sowell, Jordanian Salafism.

⁵⁰ International Crisis Group, Jordan’s 9/11, 4.

⁵¹ Stenmmann and Joas Wagemakers, A Quietist Jihadi: The Ideology and Influence of Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012), 195.

⁵² MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 239, Yael Yeshoshua, ‘Dispute in Islamist Circles over the Legitimacy of Attacking Muslims, Shi’ites, and Non-combatant Non-Muslims in Jihad Operations in Iraq: Al-Maqdisi vs. His Disciple Al-Zarqawi’, MEMRI, 11 September 2005, Dispute in Islamist Circles over the Legitimacy of Attacking Muslims, Shi’ites, and Non-combatant Non-Muslims in Jihad Operations in Iraq: Al-Maqdisi vs. His Disciple Al-Zarqawi | MEMRI (accessed 5 April 2021).

⁵³ For a brief account on Zarqawi, see Juan José Escobar Stemmann, ‘Islamic Activism in Jordan’, Athena Intelligence Journal 3, no. 3 (2008), 16–18. For a detailed account, see Abu Rumman and Abu Hanieh, The ‘Islamic Solution’, 344–350.

⁵⁴ Stemmann, ‘Islamic Activism in Jordan’, 16.

⁵⁵ ‘Jordan Remembers Victims of 2005 Hotel Bombings’, The Jordan Times, 8 November 2014.

⁵⁶ For a detailed discussion, see Eli Alsech, ‘The Doctrinal Crisis within the Salafi-Jihadi Ranks and the Emergence of Neo-Takfirism’, Islamic Law and Society 21, no. 4 (2014), 419–452.

⁵⁷ Alsech, ‘The Doctrinal Crisis’, 435.

⁵⁸ For a discussion on post 2010 disagreements, see Sowell, Jordanian Salafism.

⁵⁹ Abu Rumman and Abu Hanieh, The ‘Islamic Solution’, 444–447.

⁶⁰ Sowell, Jordanian Salafism, 2.

⁶¹ Dale Gavlak, ‘Jordan Protests: Rise of the Salafist Jihadist movement’, BBC, 22 April 2011, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-13163870 (accessed 13 March 2020).

⁶² Mohammed al-Nijar, ‘A Jordanian Confrontation with Jihadi Salafism’, al-Jazeera, 17 April 2011, https://www.aljazeera.net/news/reportsandinterviews/2011/4/17/%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A9-%D8%A3%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%84%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9 (accessed 13 March 2020).

⁶³ Ibid.

⁶⁴ Abby Ohlheiser and William Booth, ‘Islamic State Video Claims to Show Burning Death of Jordanian Pilot’, The Washington Post, 3 February 2015, Islamic State video claims to show burning death of Jordanian pilot—The Washington Post (accessed 13 March 2020).

⁶⁵ Petter Nesser and Henrik Gråtrud, ‘When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan’, Perspectives on Politics (2019): 1–15.

⁶⁶ ‘Jordan raid: Eight Killed in Irbid as Forces ‘Foil IS Plot’, BBC, 2 March 2016, Jordan raid: Eight killed in Irbid as forces ‘foil IS plot’—BBC News (accessed 3 March 2020).

⁶⁷ ‘Jordan Officers Killed in Attack at Baqaa Camp Near Amman’, BBC, 6 June 2016, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36459495#:~:text=Five%20people%20have%20been%20killed,intelligence%20officers%2C%20the%20officials%20said (accessed 3 March 2020).

⁶⁸ ‘Jordan Writer in Blasphemy Case Nahid Hattar Killed’, BBC, 25 September 2016, Jordan writer in blasphemy case Nahid Hattar killed—BBC News (accessed 3 March 2020).

⁶⁹ Rana Husseini, ‘Security Forces Announce Elimination of Karak Terror Cell’, The Jordan Times, 19 December 2016, Security forces announce elimination of Karak terror cell | Jordan Times (accessed 3 March 2020).

⁷⁰ On criticism to the court, See Victoria Silva Sánchez, Lights and Shadows of Jordan’s Counterterrorism Strategy? (Madrid: IEEE, 2018), 12.

⁷¹ UNDP, Arab Human Development Report 2016: Youth and the Prospects for Human Development in a Changing Reality (New York: United Nations Development Programme, 2016), 8.

⁷² Diane Singerman, The Economic Imperatives of Marriage: Emerging Practices and Identities among Youth in the Middle East (Washington D.C.: Middle East Initiative Working Paper 6, Wolfensohn Center for Development at Brookings, 2007), 11.

⁷³ Scott Atran, Talking to the Enemy: Religion, Brotherhood, and the (Un)Making of Terrorists (New York: Ecco Press, 2010).

⁷⁴ UNICEF, ‘Youth’, https://www.unicef.org/jordan/youth

⁷⁵ Jack A. Goldstone, ‘Demography, Environment, and Security’, in Paul F. Diehl and Nils Petter Gleditsch, Environmental Conflict (Boulder, CO: Westview, 2001), 84–108.

⁷⁶ Henrik Urdal, ‘The Devil in the Demographics: The Effect of Youth Bulges on Domestic Armed Conflict, 1950–2000’ (Washington, DC., Social Development Papers, 2004).

⁷⁷ International Crisis Group, Jordan’s 9/11, 4.

⁷⁸ Lars Berger, ‘Sharīʻa, Islamism and Arab Support for Democracy’, Democratization 26, no. 2 (2019): 309–326; Mazen Hassan, Elisabeth Kendall, and Stephen Whitefield, ‘Between Scylla and Charybdis: Religion, the Military and Support for Democracy Among Egyptians, 2011–2014’, Democratization 25, no. 2 (2018): 273–292.

⁷⁹ Abu Rumman and Shtewi, Sociology of Extremism, 53–54.

⁸⁰ Stefan Malthaner, ‘Spaces, Ties, and Agency: The Formation of Radical Networks’, Perspectives on Terrorism 12, no 2 (2018): 32–43; Stefan Malthaner and Peter Waldmann, ‘The Radical Milieu: Conceptualizing the Supportive Social Environment of Terrorist Groups’, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 37, no. 12 (2014): 979–998.

⁸¹ Thomas Hegghammer, ‘Saudis in Iraq: Patterns of Radicalization and Recruitment’, Cultures & Conflits, English documents (June 2008), para. 29–33, http://journals.openedition.org/conflits/10042 (accessed 20 March 2022).

⁸² Ibid.

⁸³ Thomas Hegghammer, ‘Militant Islamism in Saudi Arabia: Patterns of Recruitment to “Al-Qaida on the Arabian Peninsula”’, in Leila Bokhari et. al., Paths to Global Jihad: Radicalization and Recruitment to Terror Networks, Proceedings from a FFI Seminar (Oslo: Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, 2006), 22–29, https://www.academia.edu/21757863/Paths_to_Global_Jihad_Radicalization_and_Recruitment_to_Terror_Networks (accessed 8 March 2022).

⁸⁴ Abu Rumman and Shtewi, Sociology of Extremism, 111–190.

⁸⁵ Mercy Corps, Jordan to Jihad, 8.

⁸⁶ Focus Group Discussion in Rusayfeh, 14 July 2016 with Neven Bondokji.

⁸⁷ Benedicte Tobiassen, ‘Married to Jihad: Investigating intra-jihadi dynamics through female members of the Jordanian Salafi Jihadi movement’ (master’s thesis, University of Oslo, 2019).

⁸⁸ Mohammad Abu Rumman and Hassan Abu Hanieh, Infatuated with Martyrdom: Female Jihadism from Al Qaeda to the ‘Islamic State’ (in Arabic) (Amman: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, 2017), 88–128.

⁸⁹ ‘Reports on a Young Jordanian Women Joining Daesh (in Arabic)’, Al-Ghad Daily, 4 November 2015.

⁹⁰ ‘A Second Young Jordanian Women Attempted to Join Daesh (in Arabic)’, Sawt al-Balad, 16 December 2015.

⁹¹ Focus Group Discussion in Rusayfeh, 14 July 2016 with Neven Bondokji.

⁹² Ibid.

⁹³ OECD Development Centre, Youth Well-being Policy Review of Jordan. (Paris: OECD Youth Inclusion Project, 2018), 32.

⁹⁴ International Crisis Group, Jordan’s 9/11, 4.

⁹⁵ Sarah Brockhoff, Tim Krieger, and Daniel Meierriecks, ‘Great Expectations and Hard Times: The (Nontrivial) Impact of Education on Domestic Terrorism’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 59, no. 7 (2012), https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002713520589 (accessed 16 February 2022)

⁹⁶ OECD Development Centre, Youth Well-being, 33.

⁹⁷ Qtd. in Bondokji and AlHaj, A Read of Human and Population Security, 16.

⁹⁸ Unemployment Rate, Jordan Department of Statistics, Unemployment rate—Department of Statistics (dos.gov.jo) (accessed 17 March 2021).

⁹⁹ Yom and Sammour, ‘Youth Radicalisation in Jordan’, 27.

¹⁰⁰ Bhatia and Ghanem, How Do Education and Unemployment Affect Support for Violent Extremism?

¹⁰¹ Diego Gambetta and Steffen Hertog, ‘Why Are There So Many Engineers among Islamic Radicals?,’ European Journal of Sociology 50, no. 2 (2009): 201–30.

¹⁰² Nama’ Al-Banna (Shariʿa professor at UoJ), interview with Neven Bondokji, 22 February 2017.

¹⁰³ Amer Al-Hafi (Professor of comparative religion at Al-Bait University), interview with Neven Bondokji, 24 January 2017.

¹⁰⁴ International Labour Office, International Standard Classification of Occupations 2008 (ISCO-08): Structure, Group Definitions and Correspondence Tables, (Switzerland: International Labour Office, 2012).

¹⁰⁵ Mohamad Al-Majali (Shariʿa professor at UoJ), interview with Neven Bondokji, 2 February 2017.

¹⁰⁶ Anonymous Imam in Salt city, interview with Neven Bondokji, 10 April 2017.

¹⁰⁷ Human Rights Watch, Jordan’s Teachers’ Syndicate Closed; Leaders Arrested, Human Rights Watch (30 July 2020), https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/07/30/jordan-teachers-syndicate-closed-leaders-arrested (accessed 1 June 2021).

¹⁰⁸ Al-Banna, interview.

¹⁰⁹ Bhatia and Ghanem, How Do Education and Unemployment Affect Support for Violent Extremism?, 10.

¹¹⁰ Steven Heydemann, Countering Violent Extremism as a Field of Practice, Insights 1 (Washington D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace, 2014), https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/Insights-Spring-2014.pdf (accessed 15 January 2022).

¹¹¹ T. S. Rabie, The Last Mile to Quality Service Delivery in Jordan, Directions in Development (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2017), https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/ handle/10986/26577/9781464810,695.pdf?sequence = 2&isAllowed = y (accessed 15 January 2022).

¹¹² Al-Hayat Inquiry: The City of Al-Zarqaa in Jordan—Breeding Ground of Jordan’s Salafi Jihad Movement, MEMRI, 17 January 2005.

¹¹³ Hazem Alameen, ‘Zarqa Gave Birth to Al-Khalila and Al-Maqdisi, Where They Were Joined by Those Returning from Kuwait (in Arabic), AlHayat Newspaper, 15 December 2004.

¹¹⁴ Madison Springfield Inc., Drivers and Barriers Impacting Propensity Towards Violent Extremism. Zarqa: Target Location Analysis. (Amman: USAID, November 2016).

¹¹⁵ Myriam Ababsa, ‘Citizenship and Urban Issues in Jordan’, in Myriam Ababsa et Rami Daher, Villes, pratiques urbaines et construction nationale en Jordanie (Presses de l’Institut français du Proche-Orient, 2011), 45–46.

¹¹⁶ ICT Situation Room, The Rising Threat in Ma’an, Jordan (Herzliya: International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, 2014).

¹¹⁷ Amjad Shamout, Ma’an: An Open Crisis (In Arabic) (Amman: Centre for Strategic Studies, 2013); International Crisis Group (ICG), Red Alert in Jordan: Recurrent Unrest in Maan, Middle East Briefing (19 February 2003).

¹¹⁸ Barik Mhadeen, Human Security: Localized Insights from Baalbek (Amman: WANA Institute, 2019).

¹¹⁹ Maher Zoghlemi and Helmi Toumi, The Battle of Ben Guerdane: Between Savagery and Resilience (Amman: WANA Institute, 2019).

¹²⁰ Ababsa, ‘Citizenship and Urban Issues’, 51.

¹²¹ Jamal Al-Shalalbi and Yahya Ali, ‘The Crisis of the Center with the Peripheries in Jordan: The Hour of Confrontation Has Struck’, Dans Confluences Méditerranée 2, no. 85, (2013): 75–86.

¹²² Suad Al-Sharafat, ‘Assessing Jordan’s National Strategy to Combat Violent Extremism,’ Fikra Forum, 10 August 2018.