Future soil erosion assessment based on changing land cover and different climate change scenarios in a transboundary river basin

ABSTRACT

Soil erosion exacerbates land degradation, which has a detrimental impact on terrestrial ecosystems all over the world. The purpose of this study is to forecast future soil erosion in the Tumen River Basin (TRB) on the border between China and North Korea under changing land-use and climate conditions from 2030 to 2050 using the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE). Precipitation changes during the study period were examined under three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Future land use was simulated using a patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model. As the scenario worsens, regions requiring sustained attention in the TRB are expected to rise steadily from 4% (1337 km²) in 2017 to 7.3% (2440 km²) in 2050. Under SSP5-8.5, soil erosion will reach 24.45 t ha⁻¹yr⁻¹ in 2050, which is 6 t ha⁻¹yr⁻¹ more than current soil loss. According to the land cover simulation, 2.7% (∼925 km²) of forest area is anticipated to be lost by 2050, with the majority of that area converted to built-up, cropland, and grassland areas increasing by 0.5%, 1.3%, and 0.8%, respectively. This study is expected to enhance the spatial perception of soil erosion at different scales and provide scientific basis for soil and water management.

KEYWORDS:

• Soil erosion
• land-use change
• climate change
• Tumen River Basin
• RUSLE

Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41830643) and Natural Science Foundation of Jilin Province (YDZJ202201ZYTS478).

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability

Data will be made available on request.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number ]; Natural Science Foundation of Jilin Province [grant number ].