Global stability analysis and modelling onchocerciasis transmission dynamics with control measures

ABSTRACT

Background: Onchocerciasis infection is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for eradication by 2030. The disease is usually transmitted to humans through the bites of black flies. These black flies mostly breed near well-oxygenated fast-running water bodies. The disease is common in mostly remote agricultural villages near rivers and streams.

Objective: In this study, a deterministic model describing the infection dynamics of human onchocerciasis disease with control measures is presented.

Methods: We derived the model’s reproductive number and used a stability theorem of a Metzler matrix to show that disease-free equilibrium is both locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the reproductive number is less than one. Parameter contribution was conducted using sensitivity analysis. The model endemic equation is shown to be a cubic polynomial in the presence of infected immigrants and a quadratic form in their absence.

Results: When the inflow of infected immigrants is null, the model endemic equation may admit a unique equilibrium if the reproductive number is greater than one, or admits multiple endemic equilibria if the reproductive number is less than unity. We carried out a sensitivity analysis to identify the significant parameters that contribute to onchocerciasis spread.

Conclusion: Onchocerciasis disease can be eradicated if the importation of infected immigrants is properly monitored. The integration of the One Health concept in the public health system is key in tackling the emergence and spread of diseases.

KEYWORDS:

• Onchocerciasis
• bifurcation
• sensitivity analysis
• global stability
• basic reproductive number

Acknowledgments

Authors deeply appreciated the support from colleagues towards the preparation of this manuscript. Much appreciation to other researchers for their numerous review comments and suggestions. Authors have expressed their profound gratitude for such a wonderful support.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

The data used in the analysis of this manuscript is taken from published articles and are cited in this paper. These published articles are also cited at relevant places within the text as references.

Additional information

Funding

The author(s) reported there is no funding associated with the work featured in this article.