Impact of public health policy and mobility change on transmission potential of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in Rhode Island, March 2020 – November 2021

ABSTRACT

To study the SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential in Rhode Island (RI) and its association with policy changes and mobility changes, the time-varying reproduction number, R_t, was estimated. The daily incident case counts (16 March 2020, through 30 November 2021) were bootstrapped within a 15-day sliding window and multiplied by Poisson-distributed multipliers (λ = 4, sensitivity analysis: 11) to generate 1000 estimated infection counts, to which EpiEstim was applied to generate R_t time series. The median R_t percentage change when policies changed was estimated. The time lag correlations were assessed between the 7-day moving average of the relative changes in Google mobility data in the first 90 days, and R_t and estimated infection count, respectively. There were three major pandemic waves in RI in 2020–2021: spring 2020, winter 2020–2021 and fall-winter 2021. The median R_t fluctuated within the range of 0.5–2 from April 2020 to November 2021. Mask mandate (18 April 2020) was associated with a decrease in R_t (−25.99%, 95% CrI: −37.42%, −14.30%). Termination of mask mandates on 6 July 2021 was associated with an increase in R_t (36.74%, 95% CrI: 27.20%, 49.13%). Positive correlations were found between changes in grocery and pharmacy, R_t retail and recreation, transit, and workplace visits, for both R_t and estimated infection count, respectively. Negative correlations were found between changes in residential area visits for both Rt and estimated infection count, respectively. Public health policies enacted in RI were associated with changes in the pandemic trajectory. This ecological study provides further evidence of how non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination slowed COVID-19 transmission in RI.

KEYWORDS:

• COVID-19
• epidemiology
• non-pharmaceutical interventions
• reproduction number
• SARS-CoV-2
• vaccination

Disclosure statement

ICHF has invested in equity in Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL). ACS reports grants to her institution from Gilead Sciences. Other coauthors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Supplemental data

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/20477724.2023.2201984.