Driving mechanisms for decoupling CO₂ emissions from economic development in the ten largest emission countries

ABSTRACT

The significant contribution to CO₂ emissions includes historically cumulative emissions in the United States, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Germany, as well as the current increase in emerging economies, such as China, India, Iran, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia, which contribute 68% of global emissions. Therefore, it is important to measure changes in CO₂ emissions and driving mechanisms in these countries. This study used the LMDI and STIRPAT model to explore driving mechanisms for decoupling CO₂ emissions from economic growth in the 10 largest emission countries based on the World Bank and International Energy Agency databases. The results showed that CO₂ emissions have tripled in these countries over the last 55 years, driven primarily by economic growth (+170%) and population growth (+41%), whereas a decline in energy intensity (−87%) and carbon intensity (−24%) slowed the growth of CO₂ emissions over most of the period. In China, the United States, and India, significant increases in CO₂ emissions were associated with population and economic growth. Intensity effects were prominent in emission reductions in China, the United States, Germany, Japan, and Russia. Overall, the developed countries except for South Korea showed strong decoupling relationships, whereas six developing countries were weak in decoupling.

KEYWORDS:

• Carbon emission
• driving mechanism
• decoupling
• population growth
• emission reduction

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71761147001, No. 42030707), the National Key R & D Program of China (2019YFC0507505), the International Partnership Program by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (121311KYSB20190029), and the Fundamental Research Fund for the Central Universities (No.20720210083).

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

The data that supports the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, Lu, Y. L., upon reasonable request.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed here

Correction Statement

This article has been corrected with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [71761147001, 42030707]; National Key Research and Development Program of China [2019YFC0507505]; Fundamental Research Fund for the Central Universities [20720210083]; International Partnership Program by the Chinese Academy of Sciences [121311KYSB20190029].