Estimating poultry aspergillosis prevalence and diagnostic accuracy of histopathological and mycological culture in Côte d’Ivoire using Bayesian latent class analysis

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of poultry aspergillosis and evaluate the accuracy of histopathology (test under evaluation) and mycological culture (an imperfect reference test). Farms raising layer and breeder or broiler birds, with suspected aspergillosis cases, clinical or subclinical, were eligible and visited for sampling. After necropsy, histopathology and mycological culture examinations were conducted by two evaluators. A Bayesian latent class model was used to estimate the accuracy of histopathology when compared to the imperfect reference test, mycological culture. A total of 142 chicken farms, 96 laying and breeding hen farms, and 46 broiler farms were used for the study. True aspergillosis median prevalence was estimated at 63.7% (95% credibility intervals, CrI: 53.8%, 73.0%) in layers and breeders and at 65.2% (95% CrI: 50.2%, 78.3%) in the broiler farms’ population. The median diagnostic sensitivity of histopathology and culture were estimated at, respectively, 98.8% (95% CrI: 94.6%, 100.0%) and 90.4% (95% CrI: 83.6%, 95.3%). Tests’ diagnostic specificity was estimated at, respectively, 97.3% (95% CrI: 87.7%, 99.9%) and 95.7% (95% CrI: 91.8%, 98.2%). Both tests had very high and comparable positive predictive values, but, in a population where disease prevalence was 25%, histopathology had a higher negative predictive value than culture.

GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

KEYWORDS:

• Aspergillosis
• mycological culture
• histopathology
• latent class model
• sensitivity
• specificity

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Author contributions

The study was conceived by Alassane TOURE who was also responsible for data curation. Material preparation and data collection were done by Alassane TOURE, Josepha KOFFI, Olivier Assoi ETCHIAN, André Offianan TOURE, and Brahima DOUKOURE. Laboratory analyses were conducted by Alassane TOURE, Ruth Josepha KOFFI, Brahima DOUKOURE, and André Offianan TOURE. Statistical analyses were performed by Simon DUFOUR and reviewed by Alassane TOURE. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Alassane TOURE and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Ethics approval

The institutional board ethical agreement number is 2015–2022/DiagnosAspCIV. The authors adhere to the Basel Declaration, ethical guidelines of the Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour, and those of the International Association of Veterinary Editors.

Consent to participate

Owners signed a written informed consent including in the registry of the laboratory in case of using their animal data for research purposes.