Non-Ideological, Strategic Convergence of the Gulf States’ “Look East” and India’s “Think West” Policies

Abstract

The last two decades have witnessed a concerted effort to pilot Gulf-India ties beyond oil, trade and expatriates. While transforming the erstwhile “buyer-seller” relationship into a more meaningful one, “strategic” partnership has been the new mantra. While steering clear of placing the developments in any one-size-fits-all theoretical model, the paper attempts to provide a “south-south” perspective, referencing some of the tools of Foreign Policy Analysis –– recognizing in particular that this analysis needs to be “multi-level and multi-causal, as well as contextual” –– to explain the dynamics of these rapidly transforming relations. It identifies the imperatives that shaped this strategic relationship and how the governments have carefully moved out of their comfort zones to explore unchartered terrains. While surveying the multifaceted changes in Gulf-India ties over the last two decades, including some out-of-the-box security dynamics, the paper focuses on the governments’ pursuit of non-ideological and pragmatic foreign policies to fulfil their respective strategic goals and achieve strategic convergence in the Gulf’s “Look East” and India’s “Think West” policies. Finally, it also discusses the Iran and Pakistan factors in Gulf-India ties, refers to the openings for minilateral partnerships emanating from the Abraham Accords, and analyses the opportunities and challenges associated with the diminishing US engagement in the region, which could contribute to the evolution of an alternative security architecture. These factors gel well with the new penchant for de-escalation and rapprochement in the Gulf.

Keywords:

• Gulf
• GCC
• India
• “Look East
• Think West”
• security
• UAE
• Saudi Arabia

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

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12 Ibid.

13 Ibid.

14 Ibid.

15 Ibid.

16 Rej and Sagar, “The BJP and Indian Grand Strategy” (2019).

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72 Aman, “Iran Issues Rare Criticism of India over Kashmir” (2019).

73 Ibid.

74 Govt of India, Ministry of External Affairs, “Indian Minister of State M.J. Akbar’s Speech on India’s International Partnerships at Manama Dialogue”, 9 December 2017.

75 Alter and Janardhan, “The Abraham Accords: Exploring the Scope for Plurilateral Collaboration among Asia’s Strategic Partners”, Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs 15.1 (2021), pp. 41–52.

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79 The Hindu, “Mr Modi’s Ocean View”, 17 March 2015.

80 Obaid, “Saudi Arabia Gets Tough on Foreign Policy”, Washington Post, 25 October 2013.

81 Janardhan, “Asian-Led Collective Security for the Gulf”, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, 30 September 2019.

82 The Economic Times, “Navy Working on Mega Plan to Bolster Operational Capabilities”, 25 April 2019.

83 Hindustan Times, “India, France, UAE to Test Combat Skills at Varuna Naval Exercise”, 19 April 2021.

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96 Reuters, “India Asks Refiners to Diversify, Cut Reliance on Middle East Oil After OPEC + Decision”, 9 March 2021.

97 Reuters, “India Calls Saudi Advice on Tapping Stored Oil ‘Undiplomatic’”, 26 March 2021.

98 Bloomberg, “Indian Refiners Grab New Oil Supply to Cut Mideast Reliance”, 25 March 2021.

99 Author’s conversation in 2015 with Vice-President of India Hamid Ansari, who was also Indian ambassador to the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

100 These issues were discussed and analysed in Track II and 1.5 engagements initiated by the Ministry of External Affairs (India), Gulf Research Center (Dubai-Geneva), Institute for Diplomatic Studies (Saudi Arabia) and Gulf Research Meeting (Cambridge) since 2007. Apart from Indians, Gulf scholars and officials, there was representation of Chinese, Japanese, South Korean, Pakistani, and Turkish scholars. Some of outcomes of these deliberations are documented in [Gupta and Janardhan (eds), A New Gulf Security Architecture: Prospects and Challenges for an Asian Role (2013)].

101 Wehrey and Sokolsky, “Imagining a New Security Order in the Gulf”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 14 October 2015.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Narayanappa Janardhan

Narayanappa Janardhan is Director of Research and Analysis at the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy, Embassies District, Abu Dhabi, PO Box 35567, UAE, [email protected].