Climate change, in-situ adaptation, and migration decisions of smallholder farmers in central Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Despite a surge of literature on migration and climate change, evidence on the impact of climate change and variability on migration is inconclusive and the roles of in-situ adaptation strategies in migration decisions are unclear. Focusing on smallholder farmers in central Ethiopia, this study investigates the effects of climate variables and the use of in-situ adaptation strategies on households’ migration decisions. The data were analysed using a multi-level discrete-time event-history model. The results show that rainfall increase during the short rainy season [March–May] reduces migration and that of the long rainy season [June–September] increases migration. Early onset of rain during both seasons reduces migration whereas late onset increases migration. The propensity to migrate was low for households using crop diversification but high for those changing crop type and engaging in non-farm activities. The findings suggest that rainfall amount and variability instigate migration for survival among vulnerable farmers through its adverse effect on crop production and food availability. Rainfall-related livelihood problems can be addressed and distress migration can be reduced through agro-technical supports of in-situ adaptation, promoting gainful employment in rural areas, increasing income-earning capacities of potential migrants, and widening pro-poor employment opportunities in urban areas.

KEYWORDS:

• Rainfall
• vulnerability
• livelihood
• diversification
• non-farm

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by EP-Nuffic [grant number R/002597.01].

Notes on contributors

Dula Etana

Dula Etana is a Lecturer at the College of Development Studies of Addis Ababa University. His research interest focuses mainly on household wellbeing, demographic change and sustainable rural livelihoods, climate change effects and adaptation responses of smallholder farmers, and the demography of adaptation to climate change.

Denyse J.R.M. Snelder

Denyse J.R.M.Snelder is a senior advisor of natural resources management at the Centre for International Cooperation, VU University, Amsterdam. She obtained her PhD in physical geography at the University of Toronto, Canada, based on research directed at vegetative control of soil erosion in the semi-arid Baringo District, Kenya. Between 1994 and 2012, she worked as an associate professor at the Institute of Environmental Science at Leiden University. During those years she was the coordinator of the Cagayan Valley Programme on Environment and Development, Philippines, conducting research on smallholder tree-growing systems and biodiversity conservation. Since 2009, she fills a position at the Centre for International Cooperation of VU Amsterdam working as senior advisor on research and capacity building projects, such as spatial planning for agribusiness and public policy development in Greater Western Kenya (SPADE funded by NUFFIC); natural resource management and conflict resolution for stability and inclusive growth in the Greater Virunga Landscape (3C project funded by NUFFIC); water harvesting technologies in Sub Saharan Africa (WHaTeR funded by EU-FP7); a sustainable approach to livelihood improvement in Kenya (ASALI funded through a legacy by VU Amsterdam). She has conducted extensive research in the Philippines, and, over the past years, extended her activities through projects in Sub Saharan Africa. She further contributes to various courses and training in the field of food and water security, sustainable land and water management, research design and proposal writing, and curriculum review and development.

Cornelia F.A. van Wesenbeeck

Dr. Cornelia F.A.van Wesenbeeck van Wesenbeeck is Director of the Amsterdam Centre for World Food Studies at VU University, Amsterdam. Her research interests include general equilibrium theory and applications, in particular focusing on the inclusion of biophysical characteristics and spatially explicit models of production, transport, and natural flows. In addition, she has extensive experience in the spatially explicit statistical analysis of survey and map data and profiling of vulnerable groups. She has wide experience in international research consortia and serves on various national and international boards and advisory committees. Among others, she has been chairing the International Advisory Committee ‘Food and Business Global Challenges Programme’ of the National Science Foundation in the Netherlands, and project leader of various international research projects in Kenya and the Middle East.

Tjard De Cock Buning

Dr. Tjard de Cock Buning is Emerit. prof at the VU University, Amsterdam, Athena Institute, The Netherlands. His main interests of research are complex challenges for society and government and the mechanisms to deal with them: public engagement, patient participation, multistakeholder platforms, transdisciplinary approaches, communities of practices. In this context, he has been involved in the biotechnology debate, predictive medicine, cloning, sustainable agriculture, animal welfare issues, sustainable public health, corporate social responsibility. In the last 8 years, he worked with his PhDs, NGOs, and academic partners on issues such as improvement of maternal health services in Burundi, DR Congo, India, and Nepal, Food security and climate change in Ethiopia, and food security in peri-urban. He is a senior investigator of Amsterdam Center for World Food Studies with a special focus on system analysis for system-wise solutions. Currently, he is a member of the Advisory Board of the EU program Fit4Food2030.