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ABSTRACT
In this article, we study the coproduction of anticipatory knowledge and its political sensemaking during a set of participatory scenarios-building exercises. Based on interviews with organizers and participants, and analysis of reports produced by an energy scenarios platform in Argentina (the Plataforma Escenarios Energéticos), our investigation shows that the scenarios produced, as well as the calculations and models on which they are based, build anticipatory knowledge that denies contingency and translates the vision of the future of the energy sector of each scenarist into a straight and well-drawn path. Bringing these scenarios together in a single exercise that legitimizes and builds consensus through the participatory process and the use of technical expertise is a way of locking in the future – that is, a way of ensuring that the future can be known and controlled, setting aside other possible futures. In this sense, the objective of the scenario-building exercise is to simplify the complex process of transforming the energy matrix into predictable trajectories, thus convincing investors and the public administration.
RESUMO
Neste artigo estudamos a co-produção do conhecimento antecipado e seu significado político durante um conjunto de exercícios participativos de construção de cenários. Com base em entrevistas com organizadores e participantes e a análise dos relatórios produzidos por uma plataforma de cenários energéticos na Argentina (a Plataforma Escenarios Energéticos), nossa pesquisa mostra que os cenários produzidos, assim como os cálculos e modelos nos quais eles se baseiam, constroem um conhecimento antecipado que nega a contingência e traduz a visão de cada construtor de cenários sobre o futuro do setor energético em um caminho reto e bem traçado. Reunir estes cenários em um único exercício que legitime e construa consenso através do processo participativo e do uso de conhecimentos técnicos especializados é uma forma de fixar o futuro – ou seja, uma forma de garantir que o futuro possa ser conhecido e controlado, deixando de lado outros futuros possíveis. Neste sentido, o objetivo do exercício de construção de cenários participativos é simplificar o complexo processo de transformação da matriz energética em trajetórias previsíveis, convencendo assim os investidores e a administração pública.
RESUMEN
En este artículo, estudiamos la coproducción de conocimiento anticipatorio y de su significación política durante un conjunto de ejercicios participativos de construcción de escenarios. A partir de entrevistas con organizadores y participantes, y del análisis de los informes producidos por una plataforma de escenarios energéticos en Argentina (la Plataforma Escenarios Energéticos), nuestra investigación muestra que los escenarios producidos, así como los cálculos y modelos en los que se basan, construyen un conocimiento anticipatorio que niega la contingencia y traduce la visión del futuro del sector energético de cada escenarista en un camino recto y bien trazado. Reunir estos escenarios en un único ejercicio que legitima y construye el consenso a través del proceso participativo y el uso de la experticia técnica es una forma de fijar el futuro – es decir, una forma de asegurar que el futuro puede ser conocido y controlado, dejando de lado otros futuros posibles. En este sentido, el objetivo del ejercicio participativo de construcción de escenarios es simplificar el complejo proceso de transformación de la matriz energética en trayectorias predecibles, convenciendo así a los inversores y a la administración pública.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 In fact, historians of technology show that these energy transitions (in the sense of the replacement of one technology with another) have never really existed; there is always an addition of technologies that accumulate over time (Fressoz Citation2013).
2 See, for instance: https://www.vidasilvestre.org.ar/?13620/Plataforma-Escenarios-Energticos-2035#.
3 I will come back to this point in the conclusion of the article.
4 Avina is a Latin American NGO created in 1994 by a Swiss entrepreneur to contribute to sustainable development in the region.
5 The Executive Committee of the third round was formed, in addition to MINEM and UNDP, by the Center for Energy Regulatory Activity Studies (CEARE) of the University of Buenos Aires, the Technological Institute of Buenos Aires (ITBA) and the Avina Foundation. The Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (FARN), which was part of the Committee in the first two rounds, withdrew from the Executive Committee in the last round, since it participated as a scenarist.
6 There were 6 scenarios in the first round and 9 in the second and third rounds. In the last round, the scenarists were: the Association of Electric Power Generators of the Argentine Republic (AGEERA); the Association of Large Electric Power Users of the Argentine Republic (AGUEERA) in conjunction with the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA); the Argentine Committee of the World Energy Council (CACME); the Argentine Chamber of Renewable Energies (CADER); the Foro de Ecología Política (FEP); the Fundación Vida Silvestre (FVS); the Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (FARN) in conjunction with the Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires (UNICEN); the NOA Group (Salta and Jujuy); the Consejo Asesor de Política Energética de la Provincia de Córdoba (CAPEC).
7 As mentionned by a Technical Committee member:
strategically, it is very important to participate for many sectors: they are telling the education sector what things they should have in their careers, in their postgraduate programs; they are telling the innovation sector if this is going to come, try to do something in Argentina. Many things come out of that, out of the whole process. For example, energy efficiency measures had to be incorporated in undergraduate curricula, engineering, architecture, but also economics, etc.
8 This was the case, in particular, when strong disagreements occurred concerning the definition of the so-called preliminary criteria –that is, criteria that are defined in common for all the scenarists and that are used as a basis for the calculation of the modeling of each scenario. For instance, these disagreements occurred, in the third round, with “preliminary criteria” such as the evolution of local natural gas production prices and the cost of greenhouse gas emissions. See next sections for more details.
9 For example, in the last Technical Committee, there was a general coordinator (head of the technical committee), an oil and gas specialist (the most important sector in the current energy matrix), an energy modeling expert, and someone in charge of the integration and communication of the results (an “integrator”).
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Matthieu Hubert
Matthieu Hubert is a Researcher at the Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET, Argentina) and the Universidad Nacional de San Martín (UNSAM, Argentina). Currently, his research focuses on the role of expectations, anticipations and promises in science and technology. [email protected]