Russia’s Nuclear Deployment, Posture and Alert Status in NEA in the Context of the Ukraine Situation

ABSTRACT

The armed conflict in Ukraine that began roughly a year ago involves nuclear powers and will therefore have long-term implications for global security, nuclear deterrence, and the strategies of many countries. Its influence on Russia, which directly and openly participates in the conflict, is obvious. Russia will have to adjust its nuclear posture and deployment in the European theater in response to changing situations and emerging challenges. At the same time, the question arises whether the situation in Ukraine will influence its nuclear posture and deployment in Asia and the potential impacts related to nuclear weapons use in the region. This paper attempts to analyze possible changes, accounting for the specifics of Northeast Asia and Russia’s role and interests in the region.

KEYWORDS:

• Russia
• Northeast Asia
• nuclear deterrence
• nuclear posture
• nuclear weapons use
• armed conflict in Ukraine

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No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

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Anastasia Barannikova

Anastasia Barannikova is a research fellow at ADM Nevelskoy Maritime State University (Vladivostok, Russia). She was a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) in 2019, James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies (CNS), the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in 2020 and the Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University in 2021. She holds a PhD in History from ADM Nevelskoy Maritime State University. Barannikova is the author of more than 150 publications in scientific journals, newspapers, and blogs, including articles in Russian, English, Chinese, Korean, Mongolian, and Japanese languages. Her research interests include regional (Northeast Asia) security and nuclear non-proliferation; DPRK foreign and domestic policies, DPRK nuclear and missile program, nuclear posture, doctrine; Russia-DPRK-China cooperation.