Nuclear Energy and the Non-Proliferation Treaty: A Retrospective Examination

ABSTRACT

This commentary looks at how nuclear power has evolved in the last five decades since the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons entered into force in 1970. Using data on numbers of reactors constructed around the world, we show that the early expectations of a rapid growth of nuclear power plants around the world has not materialized. We also outline the trends in safeguards at nuclear facilities, namely the measures undertaken to prevent the diversion of fissile materials for use in nuclear weapons, and highlight the potential risks due to the rapid growth in the amount of material that could potentially be diverted.

KEYWORDS:

• Nuclear energy
• NPT
• safeguards
• proliferation

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 An earlier version of this commentary was published as part of Global Fissile Material Report 2022 (International Panel on Fissile Materials 2022). We thank Zia Mian and Moritz Kütt for their feedback and contributions.

² There are no reliable statistics about non-commercial electricity generation, e.g. from off-grid solar and wind, which has been spreading rapidly over the past decade. Therefore, the actual share of nuclear and other commercial power sources is lower than represented in the available statistics.

³ Construction start is defined as the beginning of the concreting of the base mat of the reactor building. Neither the planning and licensing procedure nor the site preparation work is included.

⁴ United States 92, France and China 56 each, Russia 37 and the United Kingdom 9 (Schneider and Froggatt 2023).

⁵ Construction of a fourth unit at the Akkuyu site in Turkey started in July 2022.

⁶ For safeguarding facilities, the IAEA sometimes counts two reactors as one facility (e.g. Doel 1 & 2 NPP in Belgium are counted as one facility). For counting reactors, the IAEA counts these facilities as multiple reactors. Here, the number of reactors is counted.

⁷ Calculated by Moritz Kütt on the basis of IAEA Annual reports and privately communicated to us. He plans to publish this soon.