Sustainability assessment of plastic circular economy: transitional probabilities with innovative separation

ABSTRACT

The significant effect of plastic waste separation on quality enhancement of recycled plastics comes with a cost of reduced quantity with its negative implications of higher prices. This paper aims to examine the effect of innovation on the sustainability of plastic circular economy (PCE) using a two-state cyclical dynamic closed model of plastic waste management based on ordinary differential equations. The performances of plastic waste separation models with and without innovation were compared under four pragmatic scenarios; the full force of plastic waste discard and incineration, the single force of plastic waste discard, the single force of plastic waste incineration and the complete riddance of plastic waste discard and incineration. In general, the simulated results evince that PCE cannot be sustained subject to the first three scenarios; it is however, sustainable only under the fourth scenario which endorses the complete prohibition of plastic waste discard and incineration. Under all the scenarios, the innovation-driven separation model outperformed the model without innovation in both the forward and reverse transitional phases of PCE. The paper therefore has policy directives for sustainable: PCE, environment, public health, water resources, climate through reduced greenhouse emission, employment and poverty reduction, which constitute strategic goals of the SDGs.

KEYWORDS:

• Cyclical dynamic models
• ordinary differential equations
• innovation
• PCE
• plastic waste management
• recycling
• transitional probabilities
• sustainability

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

Data will be made available upon request to the corresponding author.

Public Interest Statement

The paper assessed the sustainability of plastic circular economy (PCE) using transitional probabilities by examining the role of innovation in a plastic waste separation model. The model was formulated using a two-state cyclical dynamic closed (CDC) model based on ordinary differential equations. The CDC model reflects both the forward and reverse transitions of plastic waste management to characterize a closed-loop plastic waste management with a zero tolerance for virgin plastic production. Sustainability of PCE was assessed using plastic waste separation models with and without innovation under four practical scenarios; the force(s) of plastic: waste discard and incineration, waste discard only, waste incineration only and the complete riddance of plastic waste discard and incineration. It was evidenced that PCE cannot be sustained subject to the first three scenarios; it is only sustainable under the fourth scenario, which confirms previous results. Generally, the separation model with innovation outperformed that without innovation.

Authors contributions

The original research idea was conceived by Authors John A. Addor (JAA) and Eric N. Wiah (ENW), while the need for improvement was discussed by Authors JAA and John Bentil (JB). The framework for the study including the mathematical formulation was designed by JAA and ENW. The improved version of the model was accomplished by JAA and JB, while derivations were executed by JAA. JAA and JB conducted the literature search and data collection was handled by JAA and ENW. The simulations were performed by JAA, JB and ENW. JAA and JB performed the analysis. Final editing was performed by JB and ENW. The original manuscript was prepared by JAA. All authors read through the work, agreed and submitted to the journal.

Correction Statement

This article has been corrected with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Eric Neebo Wiah

John Awuah Addor is a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science (MSA), Takoradi Technical University (TTU), Ghana. He holds a Doctor of Philosophy in Mathematics from the University of Mines and Technology, Tarkwa, Ghana, in 2022. His current research interest is in applied mathematics in the areas of mathematical modelling, dynamical systems, epidemiology, environment and sustainability, optimal control theory, circular and green economy. He has served MSA of TTU for the past 16 years. He is a member of the Technical University Teachers Association of Ghana (TUTAG) and Ghana Statistical Association (GSS).

The main research focus of the authors is in the area of Applied Mathematics and Engineering, with major emphasis on mathematical/engineering modelling and dynamical systems. Currently, the research focus of the authors is in the following areas: sustainable environment, plastic waste management, climate change, resource conservation and energy, social interaction dynamics and epidemiology. This paper falls within the context of plastic waste management, sustainable environment, resource conservation and energy, and climate change. Precisely, the paper is an aspect of a research project titled “Mathematical Models for the Cyclical Dynamics of Plastic Waste Management”.