Modeling land use dynamics in Borkena watershed, Awash River basin, Ethiopia: Implications for sustainable land management

ABSTRACT

The land use and land cover (LULC) change has far-reaching repercussions on both natural ecosystems and socioeconomic systems worldwide. The objective of this study is to investigate the dynamics of LULC, identify its causes, and evaluate its magnitude over three distinct time intervals (1993–2003, 2003–2013, and 2013–2023) in the Borkena watershed. Various methodologies, including remote sensing techniques, field observations, and focus group discussions, were employed to analyze the changes in LULC. Additionally, community perceptions were assessed through Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and Key Informants Interviews (KIIs). Four LULC classification maps were generated and utilized to analyze land use changes, while image classification was conducted using the maximum likelihood method. The six primary land use and land cover categories considered were forest, cultivated land, shrubland, water bodies, built-up areas, and bare land. The results indicated an increase in settlements (77%), cultivated land (12%), and bare land (7%) between 1993 and 2023, while a decrease in forest cover (10%), shrubland (150%), and water bodies (−101%). These changes were predominantly observed in areas with gentle slopes (0–8%) and low altitudes (0–500 m). The findings suggest a significant expansion of agricultural and urbanization activities within the watershed. Anthropogenic activities such as agriculture and settlement had a more pronounced impact on low-lying and gently sloping areas compared to high-altitude and steep slope regions. Key informants and focus group discussions highlighted rapid population growth, rainfall variability, soil fertility decline, and a scarcity of fuelwood as the primary factors contributing to these changes.

KEYWORDS:

• Land use
• land cover dynamics
• land degradation
• drivers and causes of LULCC
• Awash River basin
• remote sensing

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank the editors and anonymous reviewers for your comments to improve the quality of the paper. I express my appreciation to Dr. Sileshi Degefa for his assistance without him this research might not happened.

The authors would like to thank the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency and Ethiopian Ministry of Water Resources, Irrigation and Electricity for providing us with the meteorological and daily flow data respectively.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available upon a requirement and reasonable request.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Engdaye Mersha

Engdaye Mersha is a researcher at Center for Environmental Science, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia. His research lies in the field of sustainable natural resource, remote sensing and GIS, ecosystem and habitat quality and soil and water conservation.

Sileshi Degefa

Sileshi Degefa (PhD) is an associate professor at Center for Environmental Science, Addis Ababa University having experience in project evaluation and Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) dynamics, as a researcher, guiding postgraduate students and evaluating government interventions in LULC impacts

Wondimagegn Mengist

Mekuria Argaw (Professor) is a professor at Center for Environmental Science, Addis Ababa University having a lot of experience in climate change, Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) dynamics and guiding postgraduate students and evaluating government interventions in LULC impacts