Trajectories of Body Mass Index and Risk for Diabetes Complications and All-Cause Mortality in Finnish Type 2 Diabetes Patients

Abstract

Objective

We aimed to assess how longitudinal body mass index (BMI) trajectories are associated with diabetes complications and all-cause mortality in Finnish patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Methods

In this cohort study, electronic health records from public primary and specialized healthcare services in all 13 municipalities of North Karelia, Finland, were utilized. This study included a total of 889 adults with newly diagnosed T2D in 2011 or 2012 (mean age at baseline 62.0 years). Individual BMI trajectories from the T2D diagnosis until 2014 were estimated and grouped by growth mixture modeling (GMM). Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for microvascular complications, macrovascular complications, any diabetes complications, and all-cause mortality from 2015 to 2022 across BMI trajectory groups were estimated using Cox regression models.

Results

Three distinct BMI trajectory groups were identified using GMM and labeled as follows: “stable” (n = 774, 87.1%), “decreasing” (n = 87, 9.8%), and “increasing” (n = 28, 3.1%). During a median follow-up of 8 years, there were 119 (13.3%) patients with microvascular complications, 187 (21.0%) with macrovascular complications, 258 (29.0%) with any diabetes complications, and 180 (20.2%) deaths. Compared with the “stable” BMI, the “increasing” BMI was associated with an increased risk of microvascular complications (HR = 2.88, 95% CI: 1.32 to 6.28), macrovascular complications (HR = 2.52, 95% CI: 1.17 to 5.43), and any diabetes complications (HR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.16 to 4.20). The “decreasing” BMI was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.14 to 3.15), compared to the “stable” BMI.

Conclusion

Our findings underscore the significance of continuous BMI monitoring and weight management in patients with T2D. Tailored treatments are crucial for efficiently preventing weight gain and reducing the risk of diabetes complications.

Keywords:

• body mass index trajectory
• type 2 diabetes
• diabetes complications
• all-cause mortality

Ethics Approval and Informed Consent

The Ethics Committee of the Northern Savonia Hospital District, responsible for reviewing all study protocols within its university hospital catchment area, approved the use of the data (diary number 81/2012). The study protocol also received approval from the register administrator, Siun sote – Joint Municipal Authority for North Karelia Social and Health Services, which provided the permission for the use of data. We used only pseudonymized register-based data, and individuals in the registers were not contacted. In accordance with Finnish legislation, written consent from the patients was not required.

Author Contributions

All authors made a significant contribution to the work reported, whether that is in the conception, study design, execution, acquisition of data, analysis and interpretation, or in all these areas; took part in drafting, revising or critically reviewing the article; gave final approval of the version to be published; have agreed on the journal to which the article has been submitted; and agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work.

Disclosure

The authors declare that they have no competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Additional information

Funding

This study was funded by the Strategic Research Council at the Academy of Finland, funding decision numbers 312703 and 336325. The funder was not involved in the study design, collection, analysis, and interpretation of the data, in writing the report, or the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.