Change point analysis of the effects of the Russo-Ukrainian war on wheat flour prices in selected African countries

ABSTRACT

Using change point analysis, we have examined price changes in wheat flour prices as provided by the Food and Agricultural Organization Tool in Angola, Mauritania, Egypt, Namibia, and South Africa. Change point analysis confirms that prices had been on an upward trajectory even before the war in Eastern Europe. The war caused domestic prices to remain high. African countries must find a way to be better prepared for the next supply shock of this variety and magnitude.

KEYWORDS:

• Angola
• Egypt
• Mauritania
• Namibia
• South Africa
• trend

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• C1

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the Editor and the two referees for careful reading and comments which greatly improved the paper.

Code availability

Code can be obtained from the corresponding author.

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Both authors gave explicit consent to publish this manuscript.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

Data can be obtained from the corresponding author.

Additional information

Funding

No funding was received for this study.