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ABSTRACT
This article examines the growth, development, and spread of Boko Haram in West Africa and al-Shabaab in Eastern Africa with a view to drawing lessons to prevent the similar development of Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama (ASWJ) in Southern Africa. Recent developments of ASWJ in northern Mozambique send genuine fears among policymakers and scholars that unless tamed at this early stage, there is a high possibility that the group might spread and engulf large portions of Southern Africa with devastating consequences to peace security and development in Southern Africa. Evaluating the environment that allowed al-Shabaab and Boko Haram to evolve, grow, spread, and take root in Eastern and West Africa, respectively, this article argues that a similar environment exists in Southern Africa and that the fear of the ASWJ becoming a threat to regional security and development in the subregion is not far-fetched. It is therefore important to learn lessons from the two militant groups with a view to proposing viable ways to forestall the spread of ASWJ across Southern Africa.
Notes
1 Salman Al Muhajir, in a quotation from one of the suicide bombers in Kampala in a video that is believed to have been made just before leaving Somalia, cautions of al-Shabaab’s intentions to expand the scope of its violent extremism to other countries in Eastern Africa (2010).
2 Papale, ‘The Realpolitik of Jihad’, 1–13.
3 Hassan, ‘Rebel Governance?’
4 Ibid.
5 Mutasa and Muchemwa, ‘Ansar Al-Sunna Mozambique’, 332–51.
6 Ike et al., ‘Reintegration of Former Boko Haram Members and Combatants in Nigeria’, 1–19.
7 Ibid.
8 Igboin, ‘“Small Fires Causing Large Fires”’, 565.
9 Ibid.
10 Shinn, ‘Al Shabaab’s Foreign Threat to Somalia’, 203–15.
11 Ike et al., ‘Reintegration of Former Boko Haram Members and Combatants in Nigeria’, 18.
12 Vidino et al., ‘Bringing Global Jihad to the Horn of Africa’, 216–38.
13 Ibid.
14 Bowker, Battle Looms in Mozambique over Extremists’ Control of Port.
15 UNSC Report, February 2023.
16 Ibid.
17 Tse-Tung, On Guerrilla Warfare.
18 Olanrewaju, ‘Globalization of Terrorism’, 21.
19 Adenike, ‘Poverty, Unemployment and Insecurity Challenges in Nigeria’.
20 Igboin, ‘“Small Fires Causing Large Fires”’.
21 Arinze, ‘Addressing Marginalisation and Political Injustice’.
22 Chukwuma and Ugwuerua, ‘Rotational Presidency and Political Corruption in Nigeria’, 50–7.
23 Ibid.
24 Shinn, ‘Al Shabaab’s Foreign Threat to Somalia’, 203–15.
25 Ibid.
26 Folarin, ‘Corruption, Politics and Governance in Nigeria’, 377–94.
27 Ibid.
28 Ronan and Jenkins, Somalia: Overview of Corruption and Anti-Corruption.
29 Transparency International Corruption Perception Index, 2018.
30 Olanrewaju, ‘Globalization of Terrorism’, 1–22.
31 Jaiyeola and Ireen, ‘Assessment of Poverty Incidence in Northern Nigeria’, 155–72.
32 Pape and Wollburg, ‘Estimation of Poverty in Somalia Using Innovative Methodologies’.
33 Olojo, ‘Making Sense of Resilience in the Boko Haram Crisis’, 1–16.
34 Nnani, ‘The Dynamics of the Globalization of Terrorism in West Africa: Probing the Case of Nigeria’s Boko Haram’.
35 Mwangi, ‘State Collapse, Al-Shabaab, Islamism, and Legitimacy in Somalia’.
36 Zenn, Boko Haram’s Conquest for the Caliphate, 10–20.
37 Ibid.
38 Akanji, ‘Sub-Regional Security Challenge’, 94–112.
39 Halabo and Berisso, ‘Conflict Dynamics behind the State Failure and the Challenges to Peace-Building’, 107–25.
40 Chiluwa and Adegoke, ‘Twittering the Boko Haram Uprising in Nigeria’, 83–102.
41 Joneset al., ‘The Islamist Cyber Propaganda Threat and Its Counter-terrorism Policy Implications’, 350.
42 Ibid.
43 Omar, ‘Ugandan Soldier Executed by Somalia’s Al Shabaab Militants: Video’.
44 Comolli, Boko Haram: Nigeria’s Islamist Insurgency.
45 Ibid.
46 Ibid.
47 Matsinhe and Valoi, ‘The Genesis of Insurgency in Northern Mozambique’, 1–24.
48 Ibid.
49 Ibid.
50 Ibid.
51 Ibid.
52 Ibid.
53 Ekanem, ‘Al Shabaab and its Violent Extremism in Kenya’, 188–204.
54 Zaida, ‘Mozambique Government Retakes Key Towns from Militants’.
55 Dzinesa, ‘The Southern African Development Community’s Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM)’, 198–229.
56 MacDonald, ‘Mozambique: Sophistication of Islamic Insurgency Threatens LNG Plans’.
57 Ibid.
58 According to the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation’s 2021 Afrobarometer public opinion survey data, this figure could be higher in the Cabo Delgado region.
59 Mutasa and Muchemwa, ‘Ansar Al-Sunna Mozambique’, 332–51.
60 Mangena and Mokete, ‘Disentangling Violent Extremism in Cabo Delgado Province, Northern Mozambique’.
61 Nnani, ‘The Dynamics of the Globalization of Terrorism in West Africa: Probing the Case of Nigeria’s Boko Haram’.
62 Nickels and Araujo, ‘Mozambique’s Next Step in Countering Violent Extremism’.
63 Ibid.
64 Cotterill, ‘Mozambique’s Islamist Insurgency Adds to Gas Industry Nerves’.
65 Dos Santos, ‘War in Resource-Rich Northern Mozambique – Six Scenarios’, 1–18.
66 Alberdi and Barroso, ‘Broadening the Analysis of Peace in Mozambique’, 229–46.
67 Botha and Graham, ‘(Counter-) Terrorism in Africa’, 127–43.
68 Ibid.
69 Ibid.
70 Roth, ‘Tyranny’s False Comfort’, 8.
71 Mangena and Mokete, ‘Disentangling Violent Extremism in Cabo Delgado Province, Northern Mozambique’.
72 Louw-Vaudran, ‘SADC and Rwanda Shouldn’t Go It Alone in Mozambique’.
73 Hanlon, ‘Mozambican Insurgency’.
74 Ibid.
75 Mandigo et al., ‘Southern African Development Community Application of Collective Security against Al Sunnah Terrorists in Mozambique (2015–2021)’.
76 Ibid.
77 Ibid.
78 Morier-Genoud, ‘Tracing the History of Mozambique’s Mysterious Deadly Insurgency’.
79 Mutasa and Muchemwa, ‘Ansar Al-Sunna Mozambique’.
80 Ibid.
81 Morier-Genoud, ‘Tracing the History of Mozambique’s Mysterious Deadly Insurgency’.
82 Mutasa and Muchemwa, ‘Ansar Al-Sunna Mozambique’, 348, 352.
83 Ibid.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Silas Malemo Juma
Silas Malemo has more than 10 years of accumulated experience on matters of peace, security, development, conflict mitigation, and stabilisation in Somalia. Silas is a PhD candidate, Department for Diplomacy and International Relations, University of Nairobi. Currently, Silas is a programme manager for the Danish–Somalia Country Programme at the Danish Somalia Embassy. Before that, has served as programme officer at the British High Commission, Nairobi, with the Department for International Development Office for Somalia (DFID Somalia). DFID Somalia is now the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office – Somalia (‘FCDO – Somalia’) focusing on stabilisation efforts in Somalia through economic and livelihood programmes.
Kizito Sabala
Dr Kizito Sabala has more than 18 years of accumulated experience on matters of peace and security in the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes regions of Africa. Currently, Dr Sabala teaches at the Department of Diplomacy and International Studies (DDIS), University of Nairobi. Before that, he served as an adjunct lecturer at United States International University (USIU), Strathmore University, Technical University of Kenya (TUK), the National Defense University (NDU), and the Defense Intelligent Academy (DIA). Recent assignments include Head of IGAD Liaison offices in Juba, South Sudan, and Nairobi Kenya, and participating in the IGAD- and UN-led mediation in Somalia, South Sudan. Today, Dr Sabala consults for various regional and international organisations such as the UN, the African Union, the Eastern African Standby Force (EASF), and IGAD, among others. Dr Sabala has published articles and book chapters in his area of specialisation of international conflict management, security, international mediation and negotiation, and Pan-Africanism.