Fiscal Risk Management of Public–Private Partnership Projects: A Multidimensional Identification and Assessment Framework

Abstract

In public–private partnership (PPP) projects, governments often need to provide guarantees to investors because of the risks created by the large scale of the investments and the long tenures of the projects. Yet, research on the assessment of fiscal risk in PPP projects remains scarce. Based on the theory of project life-cycle management, this study constructed a multidimensional identification and assessment framework for PPP fiscal risk. A fiscal risk matrix model was developed, and feasibility, standardization, and sustainability were identified. These were categorized into three dimensions of PPP fiscal risk, and their indicators’ hierarchical levels were evaluated and ranked. A risk model, called the fuzzy evaluation model of PPP fiscal risk, which shows the value of the comprehensive evaluation of PPP fiscal risk based on a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) approach, is proposed. The results demonstrate the significance of this valuation for both governments and investors, providing a clear reference when they face pressure from the fiscal risks of PPP projects.

Keywords:

• Public–Private Partnership
• Project Management
• Fiscal Risk Management
• Risk Identification
• Risk Assessment

EMJ Focus Areas:

• Decision Making & Risk Management
• Program & Project Management

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

The authors’ special thanks go to all survey participants and reviewers of the paper, and to the National Natural Science Foundation of China [NO. 72272108, NO. 72174057] for financially supporting this research.

Notes on contributors

LiPing Xu

LiPing Xu, Prof. Hunan University, China. She received her Ph.D. degree and master’s degree in Accounting from Hunan University, China. Her research interests include government accounting, environmental accounting, non-profit organization accounting, corporate social responsibility and sustainable development.

Ning Liu

Ning Liu, PhD Hunan University, China. She holds a Master’s degree in Accounting from Hunan University, China and a Bachelor’s degree from Wuhan University of Technology, China. Her research interests include PPP project management, corporate social responsibility and sustainable development.

Linyu Zhou

LinYu Zhou, is a master student Hunan University, China. Se holds a Bachelor’s degree in Accounting from Hunn University, China. Her research interests include government accounting, corporate social responsibility and sustainable development.

LanQi Lu

LanQi Lu received a master’s degree in Accounting from Hunan University and a Bachelor’s degree in Statistics from Shandong University of Science and Technology, China. Her research interest is PPP project contract management, management tones and earnings management.