Social Mobilization in Belarus - The Polish Perspective

ABSTRACT

The research note considers the impact of mobilization events on Polish–Belarusian relations. I analyze and characterize the states’ relations prior to the protests in Belarus in 2020, and identify the most important problems in their relations. Poland’s attitude toward the mass mobilization of Belarusian society and its reception by the Lukashenko regime is described. In the last section, I explain the impact of the Russian–Ukrainian war on Poland’s relations with Belarus. The research demonstrates that the events analyzed transformed bilateral relations, generating a crisis between the states.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. According to data from a census conducted in Belarus in 2019, the Polish minority accounts for 3.1 percent of the population of Belarus (almost 288,000 people), making up the second-largest minority living in the country: Natsional’nyi sostav naseleniia Respubliki Belarus’, National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus, https://www.belstat.gov.by/upload/iblock/df5/df5842f32b1b8a711043f8f54856f5c8.pdf (last consulted April 28, 2021). For more about Polish minority in Belarus, see: M. Frėjutė-Rakauskienė, O. Sasunkevich, andK. Šliavaitė, “Polish Ethnic Minority in Belarus and Lithuania: Politics, Institutions, and Identities,” Nationalities Papers, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/nps.2020.80.

2. On the UPB, see: Historia ZPB, https://znadniemna.pl/informacje-o-zpb/historia-zpb/ (last consulted April 29, 2021).

3. For more about the Eastern Partnership, see: Eastern Partnership, European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, https://ec.europa.eu/neighborhood-enlargement/neighborhood/eastern-partnership_en.

4. They were particularly evident in the pacification of people demonstrating against the fraudulent presidential elections of 2006. The EU Council pointed to the violation of international electoral standards by the authorities in Minsk and the persecution of the democratic opposition. See: Wspólne Stanowisko Rady 2006/276/WPZiB z dnia 10 kwietnia 2006 r. dotyczące środków ograniczających skierowanych przeciwko niektórym urzędnikom z Białorusi i uchylające wspólne stanowisko 2004/661/WPZiB, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2006:101:0005:0010:PL:PDF (last consulted April 30, 2021).

5. This confederation of two states was established in 1996, with the aim of monetary and economic integration in the long term. Lukashenko has repeatedly indicated a need for integration of the two entities, but events such as the imposition of gas sanctions on Belarus in 2004 or Vladimir Putin’s proposal in 2002 that Belarus be absorbed into Russia (and transformed into a Russian guberniia) led to a temporary cooling of bilateral relations and Minsk’s subsequent skepticism about this idea, despite political declarations of a desire to dynamically strengthen ties with Russia. See: Dogovor o sozdanii Soiuznogo gosudarstva, https://soyuz.by/dogovor-o-sozdanii-soyuznogo-gosudarstva; O soiuznom gosudarstve, https://soyuz.by/o-soyuznom-gosudarstve (last consulted 02.05.2021).