Searching for a recipe for success: environmental citizen petitions under free trade agreements

Figures & data

Figure 1. Schematization of the SEM process.

Figure 2. Numbers of SEMs and factual records (1995–2022).

Table 1. Frequency table.

Outcome	PRE	USC	NGO	BIO	POL	AUT
SUC (N=34; 26.36%)	10 (7.75%)	11 (8.53%)	27 (20.93%)	24 (18.60%)	19 (14.73%)	9 (6.98%)
~ SUC (N=95; 73.64%)	11 (8.53%)	34 (26.36%)	58 (44.96%)	49 (37.98%)	47 (36.43%)	13 (10.08%)
All cases (N=129)	21 (16.28%)	45 (34.88%)	85 (65.89%)	73 (56.59%)	66 (51.16%)	22 (17.05%)

Note: ~ denotes the absence of the outcome.

Table 2. Necessity analysis for the (non-)occurrence of the outcome.

SUC			~SUC
(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Condition	Consistency	Coverage	Condition	Consistency	Coverage
PRE	0.28	0.50	PRE	0.12	0.50
USC	0.35	0.29	USC	0.35	0.71
NGO	0.80	0.35	NGO	0.60	0.65
BIO	0.71	0.36	BIO	0.51	0.64
POL	0.55	0.31	POL	0.50	0.69
AUT	0.28	0.48	AUT	0.13	0.52
~PRE	0.72	0.25	~PRE	0.88	0.75
~USC	0.65	0.29	~USC	0.65	0.71
~NGO	0.20	0.17	~NGO	0.40	0.83
~BIO	0.29	0.20	~BIO	0.49	0.80
~POL	0.45	0.27	~POL	0.50	0.73
~AUT	0.72	0.25	~AUT	0.87	0.75

Note: ~ denotes the absence of the outcome or the condition. The first three columns present the necessity analysis for the outcome and the last three columns present the necessity analysis for the absence of the outcome.

Table 3. Truth table for the outcome (SUC).

PRE	USC	NGO	BIO	POL	AUT	OUT	Incl	N	Cases
1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1.00	2	NAFTA-03-003; NAFTA-11-002
1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1.00	1	NAFTA-17-001
0	0	1	1	0	1	1	0.86	7	CAFTA-11-004; CAFTA-13-004; CAFTA-14-001; NAFTA-00-006; NAFTA-09-002; NAFTA-13-001; NAFTA-96-001
1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.67	3	NAFTA-00-005; NAFTA-03-006; NAFTA-05-003
1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.67	3	NAFTA-04-004; NAFTA-04-006; NAFTA-97-006
0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.62	8	NAFTA-00-004; NAFTA-02-003; NAFTA-03-001; NAFTA-03-005; NAFTA-04-005; NAFTA-10-002; NAFTA-10-003; NAFTA-98-004
1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.60	5	CAFTA-10-009; CAFTA-13-005; NAFTA-03-004; NAFTA-06-003; NAFTA-06-004
0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.50	2	NAFTA-07-001; NAFTA-98-006
0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.33	3	NAFTA-12-001; NAFTA-97-004; NAFTA-99-002
0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.21	14	CAFTA-07-001; CAFTA-10-002; CAFTA-10-003; CAFTA-10-004; CAFTA-11-001; CAFTA-11-002; Peru-18–001; Peru-18–002; Panama-19–002; NAFTA-03-002; NAFTA-06-006; NAFTA-09-001; NAFTA-16-002; NAFTA-97-001
0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.20	5	CAFTA-11-003; CAFTA-16-001; Panama-19–01; Panama-21–001; NAFTA-15-001
0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.18	11	CAFTA-13-001; CAFTA-13-002; CAFTA-13-003; Peru-19–002; NAFTA-00-001; NAFTA-01-003; NAFTA-02-005; NAFTA-04-001; NAFTA-16-001; NAFTA-18-001; NAFTA-19-001
0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.18	11	CAFTA-10-005; CAFTA-11-007; CAFTA-18-003; NAFTA-04-002; NAFTA-07-005; NAFTA-08-001; NAFTA-15-002; NAFTA-97-002; NAFTA-97-007; NAFTA-98-005; NAFTA-98-007
0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.17	6	CAFTA-10-001; CAFTA-11-008; NAFTA-05-001; NAFTA-08-003; NAFTA-10-004; NAFTA-18-004
0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0.11	9	NAFTA-04-007; NAFTA-06-002; NAFTA-07-004; NAFTA-09-004; NAFTA-13-002; NAFTA-13-003; NAFTA-19-003; NAFTA-97-003; NAFTA-98-003
0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.09	11	NAFTA-00-003; NAFTA-02-001; NAFTA-07-002; NAFTA-07-003; NAFTA-09-005; NAFTA-11-003; NAFTA-19-004; NAFTA-95-001; NAFTA-95-002; NAFTA-96-003; NAFTA-97-005
0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5	CAFTA-09-001; CAFTA-14-002; CAFTA-18-001; NAFTA-02-002; NAFTA-98-002
0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1	CAFTA-17-001
0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	Peru-2019–001; NAFTA-98-001
0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.00	3	NAFTA-04-003; NAFTA-10-001; NAFTA-22-001
0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	5	NAFTA-00-002; NAFTA-01-002; NAFTA-08-002; NAFTA-15-003; NAFTA-99-001
0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.00	3	NAFTA-11-001; NAFTA-18-005; NAFTA-21-001
0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1	NAFTA-12-002
0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1	NAFTA-96-002
1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	CAFTA-12-002
1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.00	1	NAFTA-01-001
1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	5	CAFTA-10-008; CAFTA-11-005; CAFTA-11-006; CAFTA-12-001; NAFTA-09-003

Note: “OUT” indicates whether the configuration of conditions (represented by the truth table row) is sufficient for the outcome (1) or not (0). “Incl” indicates the consistency score of the configuration. “N” indicates the number of cases covered by the configuration.

Table 4. Parsimonious solution term.

Paths	PRE	USC	NGO	BIO	POL	AUT	Cases	Cons.	Cov.
Path 1	●			●	●		NAFTA-03-003,NAFTA-11-002; NAFTA-17-001	1.00	0.09
Path 2		○	●		○	●	CAFTA-11-004,CAFTA-13-004,CAFTA-14-001,NAFTA-00-006,NAFTA-09-002,NAFTA-13-001,NAFTA-96-001	0.86	0.18
Solution	PRE*BIO*POL + ~USC*NGO*~POL*AUT → SUC							0.90	0.27

Note: Full circles indicate that the condition is a necessary part of the path. Empty circles indicate that the absence of the condition is a necessary part of the path. Empty cells indicate that neither the condition nor its absence is a necessary part of the path. In the solution formula, * denotes the logical AND (conjunction), + denotes the logical OR (disjunction), ~ denotes the absence of a condition, and → means that the solution is sufficient for the outcome.

Table A1. Truth table for the non-occurrence of the outcome (~suc).

PRE	USC	NGO	BIO	POL	AUT	OUT	Incl	N	Cases
0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.00	5	CAFTA-09-001; CAFTA-14-002; CAFTA-18-001; NAFTA-02-002; NAFTA-98-002
0	0	0	1	1	0	?	1.00	1
0	0	1	0	0	0	?	1.00	2
0	0	1	1	1	0	1	1.00	3	NAFTA-04-003; NAFTA-10-001; NAFTA-22-001
0	1	0	0	1	0	1	1.00	5	NAFTA-00-002; NAFTA-01-002; NAFTA-08-002; NAFTA-15-003; NAFTA-99-001
0	1	0	0	1	1	1	1.00	3	NAFTA-11-001; NAFTA-18-005; NAFTA-21-001
0	1	0	1	0	0	?	1.00	1
0	1	0	1	1	0	?	1.00	1
1	0	0	0	0	0	?	1.00	1
1	0	1	0	1	1	?	1.00	1
1	0	1	1	0	0	1	1.00	5	CAFTA-10-008; CAFTA-11-005; CAFTA-11-006; CAFTA-12-001; NAFTA-09-003
0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0.91	11	NAFTA-00-003; NAFTA-02-001; NAFTA-07-002; NAFTA-07-003; NAFTA-09-005; NAFTA-11-003; NAFTA-19-004; NAFTA-95-001; NAFTA-95-002; NAFTA-96-003; NAFTA-97-005
0	1	1	0	1	0	1	0.89	9	NAFTA-04-007; NAFTA-06-002; NAFTA-07-004; NAFTA-09-004; NAFTA-13-002; NAFTA-13-003; NAFTA-19-003; NAFTA-97-003; NAFTA-98-003
0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.83	6	CAFTA-10-001; CAFTA-11-008; NAFTA-05-001; NAFTA-08-003; NAFTA-10-004; NAFTA-18-004
0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.82	11	CAFTA-13-001; CAFTA-13-002; CAFTA-13-003; Peru-19–002; NAFTA-00-001; NAFTA-01-003; NAFTA-02-005; NAFTA-04-001; NAFTA-16-001; NAFTA-18-001; NAFTA-19-001
0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0.82	11	CAFTA-10-005; CAFTA-11-007; CAFTA-18-003; NAFTA-04-002; NAFTA-07-005; NAFTA-08-001; NAFTA-15-002; NAFTA-97-002; NAFTA-97-007; NAFTA-98-005; NAFTA-98-007
0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.80	5	CAFTA-11-003; CAFTA-16-001; Panama-19–01; Panama-21–001; NAFTA-15-001
0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.79	14	CAFTA-07-001; CAFTA-10-002; CAFTA-10-003; CAFTA-10-004; CAFTA-11-001; CAFTA-11-002; Peru-18–001; Peru-18–002; Panama-19–002; NAFTA-03-002; NAFTA-06-006; NAFTA-09-001; NAFTA-16-002; NAFTA-97-001
0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.67	3	NAFTA-12-001; NAFTA-97-004; NAFTA-99-002
0	0	1	1	1	1	?	0.50	2
1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.40	5	CAFTA-10-009; CAFTA-13-005; NAFTA-03-004; NAFTA-06-003; NAFTA-06-004
0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.38	8	NAFTA-00-004; NAFTA-02-003; NAFTA-03-001; NAFTA-03-005; NAFTA-04-005; NAFTA-10-002; NAFTA-10-003; NAFTA-98-004
1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.33	3	NAFTA-00-005; NAFTA-03-006; NAFTA-05-003
1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.33	3	NAFTA-04-004; NAFTA-04-006; NAFTA-97-006
0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.14	7	CAFTA-11-004; CAFTA-13-004; CAFTA-14-001; NAFTA-00-006; NAFTA-09-002; NAFTA-13-001; NAFTA-96-001
1	0	1	1	1	0	?	0.00	2
1	1	1	1	1	0	?	0.00	1

Note: ‘OUT’ indicates whether the configuration of conditions (represented by the truth table row) is sufficient for the outcome (1) or not (0). The symbol ‘?’ indicates that the configuration does not exist empirically (logical remainder). ‘Incl’ indicates the consistency score of the configuration. ‘N’ indicates the number of cases covered by the configuration.

Table A2. Conservative solution term for the outcome.

Paths	PRE	USC	NGO	BIO	POL	AUT	Cases	Cons.	Cov.
Path 1	●		●	●	●	○	NAFTA-03-003,NAFTA-11-002; NAFTA-17-001	1.00	0.09
Path 2	○	○	●	●	○	●	CAFTA-11-004,CAFTA-13-004,CAFTA-14-001,NAFTA-00-006,NAFTA-09-002,NAFTA-13-001,NAFTA-96-001	0.86	0.18
Solution	PRE*NGO*BIO*POL*~AUT + ~PRE*~USC*NGO*BIO*~POL*AUT → SUC							0.90	0.27

Note: Full circles indicate that the condition is a necessary part of the path. Empty circles indicate that the absence of the condition is a necessary part of the path. Empty cells indicate that neither the condition nor its absence is a necessary part of the path. In the solution formula, * denotes the logical AND (conjunction), + denotes the logical OR (disjunction), ~ denotes the absence of a condition, and → means that the solution is sufficient for the outcome.

Table A3. Intermediate solution term for the outcome.

Paths	PRE	USC	NGO	BIO	POL	AUT	Cases	Cons.	Cov.
Path 1	●		●	●	●	○	NAFTA-03-003,NAFTA-11-002; NAFTA-17-001	1.00	0.09
Path 2		○	●	●	○	●	CAFTA-11-004,CAFTA-13-004,CAFTA-14-001,NAFTA-00-006,NAFTA-09-002,NAFTA-13-001,NAFTA-96-001	0.86	0.18
Solution	PRE*NGO*BIO*POL*~AUT + ~USC*NGO*BIO*~POL*AUT → SUC							0.90	0.27

Note: To derive the intermediate solution, the directional expectations were that the presence of a previous case (pre) and of an ngo were conducive to success whereas the presence of the US or Canada (usc) was not.