Exploring climate change resilience of major crops in Somalia: implications for ensuring food security

Figures & data

Figure 1. Average temperature map of the study area.

Figure 2. Trend of major crops production and harvested areas.

Notes: (a) Maize (b) Sorghum (c) Rice (d) Wheat (e) Sugarcane (f) Banana (g) Beans. Data source: FAO (2022).

Table 1. Variables, code, measurement unit, and sources.

Variable	Major Crops	Code	Measurement Unit	Source
Crop production (CP)	Maize production	MP	Production quantity (tons)	FAO
	Sorghum production	SOP	Production quantity (tons)	FAO
	Rice production	RP	Production quantity (tons)	FAO
	Wheat production	WP	Production quantity (tons)	FAO
	Sugarcane production	SCP	Production quantity (tons)	FAO
	Banana production	BP	Production quantity (tons)	FAO
	Beans production	BEP	Production quantity (tons)	FAO
Crop harvested area (CHA)	Maize harvested area	MHA	Area harvested (hectares)	FAO
	Sorghum harvested area	SOHA	Area harvested (hectares)	FAO
	Rice harvested area	RHA	Area harvested (hectares)	FAO
	Wheat harvested area	WHA	Area harvested (hectares)	FAO
	Sugarcane harvested area	SCHA	Area harvested (hectares)	FAO
	Banana harvested area	BHA	Area harvested (hectares)	FAO
	Beans harvested area	BEHA	Area harvested (hectares)	FAO
Precipitation level		AP	Annual average rainfall mm	CCKP
Temperature variability		TC	Average annual temperature change (°C)	FAO
Greenhouse gas emissions		GHGs	Total GHGs (kt of CO2 equivalent)	WB
Agricultural labour		AL	Rural population (% of total population)	WDI

Table 2. Descriptive statistics and correlation matrix.

Variable	Major crop	Mean	Maximum	Minimum	Std. Dev.	Skewness	Kurtosis	Jarque-Bera	Prob.	Obs.
lnCP	lnMP	11.764	12.569	10.951	0.445	0.166	2.493	0.443	0.801	29
	lnSOP	11.743	12.438	10.789	0.379	−0.382	3.249	0.778	0.678	29
	lnRP	8.333	9.798	6.397	0.946	0.055	1.844	1.63	0.443	29
	lnWP	6.875	7.09	6.492	0.096	−1.877	10.296	81.341	0.000	29
	lnSCP	12.272	12.578	11.918	0.126	−0.108	4.683	3.477	0.176	29
	lnBP	10.442	11.156	10.014	0.311	0.409	2.452	1.17	0.557	29
	lnBEP	9.819	10.215	9.21	0.309	−0.229	1.831	1.906	0.386	29
lnAP		5.624	5.854	5.439	0.102	0.391	3.12	0.757	0.685	29
lnTC		−0.122	0.561	−1.201	0.45	−0.493	2.588	1.378	0.502	29
lnGHGs		10.121	10.208	9.889	0.066	−2.045	7.223	41.757	0.000	29
lnCHA	lnMHA	11.796	12.801	10.502	0.484	−0.296	3.074	0.429	0.807	29
	lnSOHA	12.666	13.339	12.039	0.297	0.228	2.614	0.432	0.806	29
	lnRHA	7.158	8.643	5.704	0.685	−0.044	2.845	0.039	0.981	29
	lnWHA	7.84	8.039	7.496	0.081	−2.232	13.204	149.886	0.000	29
	lnSCHA	8.732	8.854	8.613	0.051	0.55	3.892	2.423	0.298	29
	lnBHA	7.609	8.343	7.178	0.314	0.43	2.511	1.182	0.554	29
	lnBEHA	11.111	11.408	10.545	0.231	−0.479	2.477	1.437	0.487	29
lnAL		4.145	4.248	3.997	0.081	−0.467	1.792	2.817	0.244	29

Table 3. Unit Root Tests.

ADF Test					PP Test
	Level		First difference		Level		First difference
Variables	Constant	Constant with trend	Constant	Constant with trend	Constant	Constant with trend	Constant	Constant with trend
lnMP	−1.924	−2.432	−6.363***	−6.502***	−1.91	−2.251	−6.486***	−7.133***
lnSOP	−6.686***	−6.556***	−9.968***	−9.766***	−10.873***	−10.604***	−27.843***	−35.338***
lnRP	−3.177**	−3.128	−5.539***	−5.429***	−1.863	−1.925	−5.539***	−5.430***
lnWP	−5.983***	−6.947***	−5.405***	−5.207***	−5.790***	−7.103***	−16.072***	−17.685***
lnSCP	−4.034***	−4.283**	−6.873***	−6.651***	−4.024***	−4.917***	−6.846***	−7.629***
lnBP	−2.422	−2.515	−3.314**	−4.154**	−2.378	−3.269*	−4.733***	−5.014***
lnBEP	−0.596	−4.012**	−8.277***	−8.431***	−0.335	−4.159**	−8.417***	−10.248***
lnAP	−2.860*	−5.719***	−9.759***	−6.494***	−4.340***	−5.736***	−23.790***	−23.692***
lnTC	−0.971	−4.980***	−4.663***	−4.689***	−3.065**	−15.031***	−28.858***	−38.734***
lnGHG	−8.807***	−6.868***	−5.451***	−4.725***	−2.49	−1.461	−5.328***	−6.223***
lnMHA	−2.649*	−3.234*	−7.404***	−7.335***	−2.549	−3.162	−7.402***	−7.349***
lnSOHA	−3.574**	−4.356***	−5.105***	−4.062**	−3.577**	−4.291**	−16.538***	−19.942***
lnRHA	−3.954***	−3.872**	−8.176***	−8.212***	−2.907*	−2.849	−7.854***	−7.877***
lnWHA	−7.218***	−6.786***	−5.184***	−4.986***	−7.255***	−6.792***	−15.302***	−18.695***
lnSCHA	−1.868	−3.006	−4.215***	−4.198**	−3.413**	−3.610**	−5.228***	−5.896***
lnBHA	−0.631	−2.096	−1.683	−1.668	−2.506	−3.312*	−4.625***	−4.803***
lnBEHA	−1.126	−3.281*	−7.817***	−8.402***	−0.96	−3.390*	−7.522***	−8.402***
lnAL	0.75	−1.82	−4.874***	−5.036***	1.517	−1.692	−4.873***	−5.034***

Note: ***, **, * denote significance at 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively.

Table 4. F-bounds test cointegration results.

Model	F-statistic	Signif.	Bounds test critical values		Decision
			k = 5
			I(0)	I(1)
lnMaize = f(lnAP, lnTC, lnGHG, lnMHA, lnAL)	3.082	5%	3.125	4.608	No cointegration
		10%	2.578	3.858
lnBP = f(lnAP, lnTC, lnGHG, lnBHA, lnAL)	5.581	5%	3.125	4.608	Cointegration
		10%	2.578	3.858
lnRP = f(lnAP, lnTC, lnGHG, lnRHA, lnAL)	8.301	5%	3.125	4.608	Cointegration
		10%	2.578	3.858
lnWP = f(lnAP, lnTC, lnGHG, lnWHA, lnAL)	4.293	5%	3.125	4.608	Inconclusive
		10%	2.578	3.858
lnSCP = f(lnAP, lnTC, lnGHG, lnSCHA, lnAL)	5.643	5%	3.125	4.608	Cointegration
		10%	2.578	3.858
lnSOP = f(lnAP, lnTC, lnGHG, lnSOHA, lnAL)	8.360	5%	3.125	4.608	Cointegration
		10%	2.578	3.858
lnBEP = f(lnAP, lnTC, lnGHG, lnBEHA, lnAL)	15.291	5%	3.125	4.608	Cointegration
		10%	2.578	3.858

Note: The F-bounds test critical values are from Narayan (2005) based on the 5% significance level.

Table 5. Long-Run Coefficient Estimates.

Variable	lnSOP	lnRP	lnSCP	lnBP	lnBEP
Constant	−14.347	−20.522	8.549***	−0.018	−3.822***
	(−1.704)	(−1.527)	(4.449)	(−0.030)	(−4.415)
lnAP	2.416***	−1.178	0.167**	0.104**	−0.124***
	(3.409)	(−1.446)	(2.482)	(3.115)	(−5.066)
lnTC	−1.307***	−0.588**	0.045**	−0.102***	−0.042***
	(−4.382)	(−2.349)	(3.256)	(−6.639)	(−2.604)
lnGHGs	1.749**	2.283*	0.170	0.160***	0.209***
	(2.367)	(1.981)	(0.920)	(3.844)	(4.041)
lnCHA*	1.396***	0.707***	−0.192	0.499***	0.756***
	(4.342)	(9.227)	(−0.546)	(9.665)	(14.261)
lnAL	−7.328***	0.800	−0.277**	0.220**	−0.214**
	(−4.366)	(0.730)	(−3.444)	(3.130)	(−2.505)

Note: The crop harvested area (CHA) represents the harvested areas of sorghum, rice, sugarcane, banana, and beans.

Table 6. Short-Run Coefficient Estimates.

Variable	lnSOP	lnRP	lnSCP	lnBP	lnBEP
Constant	5.333***	1.575**	2.968**	1.110**	0.455**
	(6.500)	(2.669)	(2.863)	(2.441)	(2.106)
ΔlnSOPt-1	−0.379***
	(−3.799)
ΔlnRPt-1		0.151
		(1.214)
ΔlnSCPt-1			0.608**
			(2.328)
ΔlnSCPt-2			0.16
			(1.189)
ΔlnBPt−1				−1.263**
				(−2.369)
ΔlnBEPt-1					−0.054
					(−0.566)
ΔlnBEPt-2					−0.424***
					(−3.221)
ΔlnAP	−0.935***		−0.245**	−0.199*	0.124***
	(−3.179)		(−2.441)	(−1.964)	(3.273)
ΔlnAPt-1	−1.915***	1.670**	−0.162	−0.269**
	(−5.777)	(2.249)	(−1.305)	(−2.818)
ΔlnAPt-2		1.226	0.194*
		(1.670)	(1.979)
ΔlnTC		0.479*	0.0341
		(1.805)	(1.722)
ΔlnTCt-1	0.825***	0.869***		−0.008
	(5.037)	(3.373)		(−0.201)
ΔlnTCt-2	0.253**			−0.041	−0.045***
	(2.142)			(−1.039)	(−3.463)
ΔlnGHGS	7.566***	6.122	−2.463**		0.933**
	(5.631)	(1.263)	(−2.987)		(2.410)
ΔlnGHGSt-1		−11.579**	4.672***	0.167	−1.189***
		(−2.680)	(4.414)	(0.364)	(−3.881)
ΔlnGHGSt-2			−1.641***	1.184***
			(−3.909)	(3.531)
ΔlnCHA	1.055***	0.731***	2.081***		0.820***
	(8.535)	(5.781)	(8.523)		(6.843)
ΔlnCHAt-1	−0.165***			1.620***
	(−0.998)			(3.027)
ΔlnCHAt-2	−0.736***	0.183	0.889*		0.634***
	(−6.220)	(1.437)	(2.163)		(4.714)
ΔlnAL
ΔlnALt-1		−8.656		1.535*	−0.574
		(−1.436)		(1.870)	(−1.279)
ΔlnALt-2	−17.552***		−1.475*
	(−6.670)		(−2.006)
ECTt-1	−0.753***	−0.418**	−0.775**	−0.318**	−0.093**
	(−6.696)	(−2.877)	(−2.865)	(−2.463)	(−2.044)

Table 7. Diagnostic tests.

Test type	lnSOP	lnRP	lnSCP	lnBP	lnBEP
Adjusted R^2	0.95	0.696	0.883	0.648	0.932
Serial Correlation – LM test	0.261	3.081	0.85	1.632	1.933
	[0.610]	[0.079]	[0.654]	[0.201]	[0.164]
Heteroskedasticity – BPG test	11.235	15.68	16.238	10.703	10.252
	[0.795]	[0.547]	[0.576]	[0.933]	[0.673]
Normality – JB test	3.931	0.524	1.924	2.709	0.712
	[0.140]	[0.770]	[0.382]	[0.258]	[0.701]
Ramsey RESET Test	0.575	0.979	1.116	0.576	1.127
	[0.581]	[0.360]	[0.307]	[0.590]	[0.284]
CUSUM	S	S	S	US	S
CUSUM of squares	US	S	US	S	S

Notes: P-values are in the brackets [..].

Table 8. Pairwise Granger Causality Tests.

H0: no granger causation	F-Statistic	Direction of causality
Panel A: Sorghum Model
lnAP → lnSOP	0.634	No causation
lnSOP → lnAP	0.538
lnTC → lnSOP	0.31	No causation
lnSOP → lnTC	1.549
lnGHGs → lnSOP	3.982**	Unidirectional
lnSOP → lnGHGs	0.246
lnSOHA → lnSOP	0.149	No causation
lnSOP → lnSOHA	2.34
lnAL → lnSOP	0.005	No causation
lnSOP → lnAL	0.321
Panel B: Rice Model
lnAP → lnRP	0.372	No causation
lnRP → lnAP	0.352
lnTC → lnRP	1.111	No causation
lnRP → lnTC	0.563
lnGHGs → lnRP	2.443	No causation
lnRP → lnGHGs	0.868
lnRHA → lnRP	2.532*	Bidirectional
lnRP → lnRHA	5.569**
lnAL → lnRP	0.317	No causation
lnRP → lnAL	0.088
Panel C: Sugarcane Model
lnAP → lnSCP	1.254	No causation
lnSCP → lnAP	0.451
lnTC → lnSCP	3.251*	Unidirectional
lnSCP → lnTC	0.636
lnGHGS → lnSCP	1.178	Unidirectional
lnSCP → lnGHGs	8.141***
lnSCHA → lnSCP	1.18	No causation
lnSCP → lnSCHA	0.434
lnAL → lnSCP	4.881**	Unidirectional
lnSCP → lnAL	1.888
Panel D: Banana Model
lnAP → lnBP	4.297**	Bidirectional
lnBP → lnAP	2.453*
lnTC → lnBP	1.223	Unidirectional
lnBP → lnTC	9.420***
lnGHGs → lnBP	1.308	No causation
lnBP → lnGHGs	0.131
lnBHA → lnBP	1.602	No causation
lnBP → lnBHA	0.564
lnAL → lnBP	3.607**	Unidirectional
lnBP → lnAL	2.404
Panel E: Beans Model
lnAP → lnBEP	2.181	No causation
lnBEP → lnAP	1.831
lnTC → lnBEP	0.085	Unidirectional
lnBEP → lnTC	10.528***
lnGHGs → lnBEP	0.4	No causation
lnBEP → lnGHGs	0.037
lnBEHA → lnBEP	0.2	Unidirectional
lnBEP → lnBEHA	4.253**
lnAL → lnBEP	0.056	Unidirectional
lnBEP → lnAL	2.549*

FAO. (2022). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2022. Repurposing food and agricultural policies to make healthy diets more affordable. FAO.

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Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103

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Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the author on reasonable request.