Longitudinal gambling risk transitions: evidence from a nationally representative Australian sample

Figures & data

Table 1. Sample characteristics by gambling risk in 2015.

Characteristic	Level	NPG (%)	LR (%)	MR (%)	PG (%)
Problem gambling risk		92.29	4.11	2.48	1.12
		n = 11,424	n = 517	n = 298	n = 125
Age	18 to 24	10.92	9.37	8.94	13.62
	25 to 39	25.73	26.41	21.38	22.58
	40 to 54	26.82	25.48	26.53	35.14
	55 to 69	24.19	23.89	30.36	23.47
	70 to max	12.35	14.85	12.79	5.19
Gender	Women	55.02	40.45	33.80	37.71
	Men	44.98	59.55	66.20	62.29
Education	Incomplete high school	22.53	28.34	30.60	43.12
	Complete high school	15.05	16.81	13.98	13.58
	Dip/Cert 3/4	33.40	38.00	41.50	32.88
	Tertiary qualifications	29.02	16.85	13.92	10.43
Area SES	Lowest	28.30	36.60	42.08	35.76
	Middle	38.73	37.46	35.86	32.03
	Highest	32.98	25.94	22.06	32.21
Employed	No	35.41	39.52	39.48	37.22
Partnered	Yes	69.36	61.50	59.18	45.79
Dependent children	Yes	34.27	24.96	23.56	23.16
Hardship	Yes	19.45	27.67	31.77	49.16
Health condition	Yes	28.46	33.29	37.08	38.02
Psychological distress	Yes	13.28	16.67	20.79	38.82
Risky drinking	Yes	15.38	30.00	37.21	38.55
Physical functioning	Mean	84.05	80.25	78.78	68.28
	SE	0.21	1.09	1.36	2.49
Life satisfaction	Mean	7.98	7.75	7.53	7.00
	SE	0.01	0.07	0.09	0.18
Social support	Mean	5.48	5.18	5.08	4.62
	SE	0.01	0.05	0.06	0.10
Mastery	Mean	18.92	17.80	17.21	15.84
	SE	0.04	0.21	0.28	0.43

Notes. Percentages refer to the 2015 population. Means are standardized. NPG: Non-Problem Gambling; LR: Low Risk; MR: Moderate Risk; PG: Problem Gambling.

Table 2. Mean and median PGSI scores in 2015 and 2018 based on wave 15 risk group.

	Wave 15		Wave 18
	Median	Mean	Median	Mean
Non-Problem gambling	0	0	0	0.81
Low Risk gambling	1	1.32	0	1.13
Moderate Risk gambling	4	4.38	2	2.88
Problem gambling	10.5	12.25	3	5.92

Notes. Wave 15 was in 2015, Wave 18 in 2018.

Table 3. Change in gambling risk 2015-2018 in Australian population (weighted).

2015 Gambling	NPG	LR	MR	PG
N	2018 Gambling
NPG (n = 11,424)	15,296,941	361,279	131,417	32,719
LR (n = 517)	427,970	171,854	83,038	20,393
MR (n = 298)	158,646	88,709	132,986	43,071
PG (n = 125)	66,594	20,733	37,820	64,682
%	2018 Gambling
NPG	96.68%	2.28%	0.83%	0.21%
LR	60.86%	24.44%	11.81%	2.90%
MR	37.47%	20.95%	31.41%	10.17%
PG	35.08%	10.92%	19.92%	34.07%

Notes. Percentage is relative to 2015 status. NPG: Non-Problem Gambling; LR: Low Risk; MR: Moderate Risk; PG: Problem Gambling.

Table 4. Simple negative binomial univariate regression models, stratified by each of the four baseline gambling risk groups, showing predictors of wave 18 PGSI score (and predicted wave 18 mean PGSI score).

	Non-Problem Gambling W15, n = 11,424		Low-Risk Gambling W15, n = 517		Moderate-Risk Gambling W15, n = 298		Problem Gambling W15, n = 125
	IRR (SE)	Pred. Score	IRR (SE)	Pred. Score	IRR (SE)	Pred. Score	IRR (SE)	Pred. Score
Age
18 to 24	base	0.13	base	1.11	base	3.15	base	4.44
25 to 39	0.87 (0.23)	0.11	1.11 (0.35)	1.24	0.64 (0.19)	2.03	1.40 (0.69)	6.19
40 to 54	*0.54 (0.14)	0.07	0.93 (0.30)	1.03	1.05 (0.30)	3.32	1.51 (0.69)	6.72
55 to 69	**0.44 (0.12)	0.06	1.11 (0.35)	1.23	0.85 (0.24)	2.69	1.23 (0.59)	5.45
70 to max	**0.36 (0.12)	0.05	0.85 (0.30)	0.94	1.17 (0.38)	3.69	1.16 (0.86)	5.17
Gender
Female	base	0.07	base	1.04	base	3.22	base	4.50
Male	*1.35 (0.21)	0.09	1.15 (0.19)	1.19	0.84 (0.13)	2.71	1.50 (0.44)	6.74
Hardship
No	base	0.06	base	1.09	base	3.08	base	4.93
Yes	**3.23 (0.58)	0.18	1.14 (0.21)	1.25	0.82 (0.14)	2.52	1.46 (0.40)	7.22
Education
Incomplete HS	base	0.14	base	1.10	base	2.85	base	7.36
Complete HS	**0.52 (0.13)	0.07	1.13 (0.29)	1.24	1.06 (0.26)	3.02	0.82 (0.35)	6.06
Dip/Cert 3/4	**0.49 (0.10)	0.07	1.04 (0.21)	1.14	1.04 (0.19)	2.97	0.57 (0.18)	4.18
Tertiary qual.	**0.41 (0.09)	0.06	0.96 (0.24)	1.05	0.90 (0.22)	2.56	0.75 (0.36)	5.54
Partnered
No	base	0.10	base	1.12	base	3.28	base	6.00
Yes	*0.69 (0.11)	0.07	.01 (0.17)	1.13	0.80 (0.12)	2.61	0.97 (0.27)	5.81
Dep. children
No	base	0.08	base	1.08	base	3.04	base	6.10
Yes	1.06 (0.17)	0.08	1.18 (0.22)	1.28	0.78 (0.14)	2.39	0.87 (0.29)	5.30
Employed
No	base	0.10	base	1.21	base	2.98	base	7.07
Yes	*0.68 (0.11)	0.07	0.89 (0.15)	1.08	0.95 (0.15)	2.82	0.75 (0.22)	5.27
Health Cond.
No	base	0.07	base	1.10	base	3.05	base	5.12
Yes	**1.83 (0.30)	0.12	1.09 (0.19)	1.19	0.85 (0.14)	2.59	1.40 (0.40)	7.20
MH condition
No	base	0.07	base	1.07	base	2.88	base	6.08
Yes	**2.28 (0.49)	0.16	1.31 (0.29)	1.41	1.00 (0.19)	2.89	0.90 (0.26)	5.46
Risky drinking
No	base	0.07	base	1.08	base	2.86	base	5.10
Yes	**2.44 (0.49)	0.16	1.16 (0.21)	1.25	1.03 (0.16)	2.94	1.37 (0.40)	7.00
Area SES
Lowest	base	0.12	base	1.40	base	2.68	base	5.65
Middle	**0.62 (0.11)	0.07	*0.69 (0.13)	0.97	1.04 (0.18)	2.78	1.17 (0.40)	6.59
Highest	**0.47 (0.09)	0.06	0.70 (0.15)	0.98	1.28 (0.26)	3.44	0.99 (0.33)	5.58
Physical Funct.	*0.85 (0.07)	0.08	0.94 (0.08)	1.12	1.05 (0.08)	2.90	1.04 (0.14)	5.83
Life satisfaction	**0.81 (0.06)	0.08	0.94 (0.08)	1.12	0.96 (0.06)	2.84	*0.82 (0.08)	4.91
Social Support	**0.67 (0.05)	0.08	0.99 (0.08)	1.13	1.01 (0.07)	2.90	0.95 (0.11)	5.72
Mastery	**0.76 (0.06)	0.08	1.01 (0.08)	1.14	1.08 (0.08)	2.97	0.92 (0.11)	5.62

Notes. *indicates p < 0.05; **indicates p < .01; base indicates the variable level used as the reference for the model. IRR: incidence rate ratio; SES: socioeconomic status; MH: mental health. Models initially included age, gender, and all covariates with a p-value of 0.1 or less and sequentially eliminated the covariate with the largest p-value until we achieved a parsimonious model where all covariates had a p-value of 0.1 or lower.

Table 5. Multivariate negative binomial multivariate regression models, stratified by each of the four baseline gambling risk groups, showing predictors of wave 18 PGSI scores (and predicted wave 18 PGSI mean score).

	Non-Problem Gambling W15, n = 11,424		Low-Risk Gambling W15, n = 517		Moderate-Risk Gambling W15, n = 298		Problem Gambling W15, n = 125
	IRR (SE)	Pred. Score	IRR (SE)	Pred. Score	IRR (SE)	Pred. Score	IRR (SE)	Pred. Score
Age
18 to 24	base	0.13	base	1.11	base	3.15	base	4.44
25 to 39	1.02 (0.28)	0.11	1.05 (0.33)	1.24	0.62 (0.19)	2.03	1.64 (0.78)	6.19
40 to 54	0.80 (0.23)	0.07	0.87 (0.28)	1.03	1.01 (0.29)	3.32	2.35 (1.07)	6.72
55 to 69	0.65 (0.19)	0.06	1.02 (0.33)	1.23	0.80 (0.23)	2.69	1.92 (0.94)	5.45
70 to max	*0.48 (0.17)	0.05	0.85 (0.30)	0.94	1.12 (0.37)	3.69	1.49 (1.05)	5.17
Gender
Female	base	0.07	base	1.04	base	3.22	base	4.50
Male	**1.61 (0.25)	0.09	1.09 (0.19)	1.19	0.82 (0.13)	2.71	1.63 (0.47)	6.74
Hardship
No	base	0.06
Yes	**2.40 (0.45)	0.18
Education
Incomplete HS	base	0.14					base	7.36
Complete HS	**0.43 (0.11)	0.07					0.86 (0.36)	6.06
Dip/Cert 3/4	**0.51 (0.11)	0.07					0.55 (0.18)	4.18
Tertiary qual.	*0.64 (0.14)	0.06					0.54 (0.27)	5.54
Health Cond.
No	base	0.07
Yes	**1.66 (0.29)	0.12
Risky drinking
No	base	0.07
Yes	**2.10 (0.42)	0.16
Area SES
Lowest	base	0.12	base	1.40
Middle	0.77 (0.14)	0.07	0.70 (0.13)	0.97
Highest	**0.58 (0.11)	0.06	0.70 (0.15)	0.98
Life satisfaction							*0.80 (0.08)	4.91
Mastery	*0.83 (0.07)	0.08

Notes. *indicates p < 0.05; **indicates p < .01; base indicates the variable level used as the reference for the model. IRR: incidence rate ratio; SES: socioeconomic status; MH: mental health.