The macroeconomic impact of ocean economy financing in South Africa

Figures & data

Table 1. Data description.

Acronym	Variable	Description	Source
OEF	Ocean Economic Financing	OEF refers to government expenditure on the ocean sectors. These include the following: marine transport and manufacturing, offshore oil and gas exploration, aquaculture, marine protection services, ocean governance, coastal and marine tourism, and small harbours (Kildow & Colgan, 2005; Operation Phakisa 2014).	National Treasury
GDP	Gross Domestic Product	GDP is a monetary measure of the market value of all final goods and services produced in a given period. The GDP growth rate is measured as the percentage increase or decrease of GDP from the previous measurement cycle (Mohr and Fourie 2008).	World Bank
UNEM	Unemployment	The unemployment rate in South Africa is a measure of the underutilisation of the available labour supply. This also describes the inability of the economy to create employment for those who want to work but are not working (ILO 2020). Unemployment is measured as a percentage of the unemployment rate in South Africa.	World Bank
BF	Business Freedom	An overall indicator of the efficiency of government regulation of business. The ease of doing business can promote trade flows (Depken and Sonora 2005).	Heritage foundation
GI	Government Integrity	A trustworthy government is free from corruption and able to fulfil its commitment to protecting the interests of investors. Government corruption undermines public expenditure (Qiongzhi and Qi 2011).	Heritage Foundation
LR	Lending rate	The rate of interest that is paid on a loan. A high rate of interest affects the trade balance. Lower interest rates increase exports (Batra and Beladi 2013).	World Bank

Table 2. Descriptive statistics.

	GDP	UNEM	OEF	BF	GI	LR
Mean	2.66	24.31	21.46	74.52	3.85	13.09
Std. Dev.	1.73	2.55	0.87	7.18	0.09	3.89
Skewnes	−0.31	−0.81	−0.72	0.38	0.06	0.70
Kurtosis	2.83	4.24	3.07	2.046	2.67	2.33
J-B	0.46	4.54	2.27	1.61	0.12	2.60
Proba	0.79	0.10	0.32	0.44	0.93	0.27
	26	26	26	26	26	26

Sources: Authors’ own computation using World Bank, National Treasury, Heritage Foundation (2021).

Table 3. Stationary tests.

Order of Integration	Variable	ADF	PP	Dicky fuller
		Trends and Intercept	Trends and Intercept	Trends and Intercept
Levels	BF	−1.994	−1.994	−2.064
1st Difference	BF	−4.837***	−4.838***	−5.062***
Levels	UNEM	−2.010	−2.010	−2.076
1st Difference	UNEM	−5.088	−5.049**	−4.474***
Levels	GDPG	−3.105	−3.072	−3.250
1st Difference	GDPG	−5.637***	−13.183***	−5.898***
Levels	GI	−3.271	−3.158	−3.434
1st Difference	GI	−4.442***	−4.395***	−4.660***
Levels	LR	−3.305	−2.374	−3.392
1st Difference	LR	−4.501***	−4.511***	−4.226***
Levels	OEF	−2.273	−2.021	−2.396
1st Difference	OEF	−4.721***	−15.575***	−6.506***

Note: (*; **; ***) indicate significance at 10%; 5% and 1% level of significance respectively.

Sources: Author’s own computation using World Bank, Heritage Foundation, and National Treasury (2020).

Table 4. ARDL Bound test.

Dependent variable	F-stats	1%	5%	10%
GDP	18.06	Cointegration	Cointegration	Cointegration
UNEM	8.48	Cointegration	Cointegration	Cointegration
		Level of significance	Lower I (0)	Upper I (1)
Critical values		1%	3.74	5.06
		5%	2.86	4.01
		10%	2.45	3.52

Sources: Author’s own computation with World Bank data, Heritage Foundation and National Treasury (2020).

Table 5. Long and short run model.

Variable	GDP	UNEM
Long run
Log(OEF)	0.275 [0.488]	−2.020 [−1.229]
BF	0.056*** [2.598]	−0.371*** [−2.475]
GI	4.502*** [2.415]	−10.292 [−0.715]
LR	−0.485*** [−7.139]	1.401 [2.267]
FC	−3.813*** [−9.465]	9.288 [2.397]
OP	−0.751*** [−3.066]	−0.096 [−0.045]
Short run
DLog (OEF)	−0.572 [−1.210]	−0.695 [−1.395]
D(BF)	0.141*** [3.318]	−0.212*** [−5.233]
D(GI)	8.535*** [2.313]	−8.385*** [−3.175]
D(LR)	−0.191*** [−1.356]	0.482*** [4.533]
D(FC)	−7.229*** [−7.901]	3.197*** [5.172]
D(OP)	−1.424*** [−2.899]	−0.033 [−0.045]
CointEq(−1)*	−1.895*** [−11.613]	−0.344*** [−3.899]

Note: (*; **; ***) indicate significance at 10%; 5% and 1% level of significance respectively.

Source: Author’s own computation using World Bank, National Treasury, and Heritage Foundation (2020).

Table 6. Diagnostic tests.

Details	GDP	UNEM
Jarque-Bera	0.795[0.671]	0.51 [0.77]
Autocorrelation	3.506 [0.088]	0.327 [0.727]
Heteroskedasticity	0.598 [0.806]	0.565 [0.803]
RESET TEST	0.16 [0.69]	0.379 [0.710]

Sources: Author’s own computation using World Bank, National Treasury, and Heritage Foundation data (2020)

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