Conflict and households’ acute food insecurity: evidences from the ongoing war in Tigrai-Northern Ethiopia

Figures & data

Figure 1. Food insecurity phase in December 2020 and March 2021.

Source: Computed from the survey, 2021 and USAID, 2020.

Table A1. Sample size by zone, woreda, and sex.

Zone	Woreda	Female	Male	Total	Share
	Adigrat_Town	47	30	77	2.4
	Ganta Afeshum	61	75	136	4.2
	Wukro_Town	28	24	52	1.6
	KilteAwlaelo	51	94	145	4.5
	Freweyni_Town	13	19	32	1.0
	Atsibi	14	11	25	0.8
Eastern		235	272	507	15.6
	Aksum_Town	31	73	104	3.2
	Adwa	62	158	220	6.8
	Naeder	18	58	76	2.3
	Laelay Maychew	16	88	104	3.2
	Tahitay Maychew	13	116	129	4.0
	Ahferom	23	58	81	2.5
	Adwa_town	31	31	62	1.9
	Rama/Aderbaete_Town	6	19	25	0.8
Central		227	628	855	26.3
	Shire_Town	76	80	156	4.8
	Tahtay Koraro	29	67	96	3.0
	Endabaguna_Town	6	38	44	1.4
Northwestern		154	256	410	12.6
	EmbaAlaje	8	16	24	0.7
	Endamekoni	30	64	94	2.9
	Maychew_Town	30	25	55	1.7
	Raya Azebo	47	82	129	4.0
	Mekoni_town	20	26	46	1.4
Southern		135	214	349	10.8
	K/K/semien	20	37	57	1.8
	K/K/Adihaqi	17	21	38	1.2
	K/K/Kedamayweyane	17	27	44	1.4
	K/K/Quiha	18	22	40	1.2
	K/K/Hadnet	14	31	45	1.4
	K/K/Ayder	40	65	105	3.2
	K/K/Hawelti	9	41	50	1.5
Mekelle		135	244	379	11.7
	Degua Temben	31	47	78	2.4
	Enderta	58	73	131	4.0
	Hintalo	45	46	91	2.8
	HagereSelam	25	23	48	1.5
	Adigudom	26	23	49	1.5
Southeast		185	222	407	12.5
Western		88	250	338	10.4
	IDP (Western+)	179	378	557	17.2
	Total	1159	2086	3245	100.0

Source: Computed from the survey, 2021.

Value in brackets is the share from the total sample.

Table A2. Household features.

Level of education			Marital status			Religion			Perceived economic status
									Before war			During war/now
Variable	Freq	%	Variable	Freq	%	Variable	Freq	%	Variable	Freq	%	Freq	%
Illiterate	1056	32.54	Married	2427	74.79	Orthodox	3022	93.13	very poor	26	0.8	1022	31.53
Religious	173	5.33	Single	100	3.08	Muslim	214	6.59	poor	540	16.66	1556	48.01
Primary (1–6)	906	27.92	Divorced	381	11.74	Catholic	5	0.15	Medium	2275	70.19	642	19.81
Secondary (7–12)	540	16.64	Widowed	327	10.08	Protestant	4	0.12	Rich	346	10.68	20	0.62
Diploma/TVET	198	6.1	Other	10	0.31				Very rich	54	1.67	1	0.03
First degree	317	9.77
Masters	50	5.14
Ph.D.	5	0.15
Total	3245	100	Total	3245	100		3245	100		100.00		3245	100

Source: Computed from the survey, 2021.

Table A3. Level and gap of food insecurity by woreda.

Woreda	FIS0	FIS1
Adigrat_Town	0.82 (0.04)	0.31 (0.03)
Ganta Afeshum	0.79 (0.04)	0.32 (0.02)
Wukro_Town	0.71 (0.06)	0.31 (0.04)
KilteAwlaelo	0.63 (0.04)	0.32 (0.03)
Freweyni_Town	0.66 (0.08)	0.23 (0.04)
Atsibi	0.72 (0.09)	0.22 (0.04)
Aksum_Town	0.8 (0.04)	0.37 (0.02)
Adwa	0.92 (0.02)	0.45 (0.02)
Naeder	0.79 (0.05)	0.39 (0.03)
Laelay Maychew	0.9 (0.03)	0.35 (0.02)
Tahitay Maychew	0.8 (0.04)	0.4 (0.02)
Ahferom	0.8 (0.04)	0.38 (0.03)
Adwa_town	0.87 (0.04)	0.41 (0.03)
Rama/Aderbaete_Town	0.92 (0.05)	0.39 (0.04)
Shire_Town	0.74 (0.03)	0.3 (0.02)
Tahtay Koraro	0.81 (0.04)	0.36 (0.03)
Endabaguna_Town	0.8 (0.06)	0.32 (0.04)
EmbaAlaje	0.75 (0.09)	0.29 (0.05)
Endamekoni	0.71 (0.05)	0.3 (0.03)
Maychew_Town	0.69 (0.06)	0.27 (0.03)
Raya Azebo	0.64 (0.04)	0.28 (0.02)
Mekoni_town	0.7 (0.07)	0.27 (0.04)
K/K/semien	0.77 (0.06)	0.26 (0.03)
K/K/Adihaqi	0.71 (0.07)	0.27 (0.04)
K/K/Kedamayweyane	0.77 (0.06)	0.29 (0.03)
K/K/Quiha	0.6 (0.08)	0.27 (0.05)
K/K/Hadnet	0.71 (0.07)	0.26 (0.03)
K/K/Ayder	0.73 (0.04)	0.33 (0.03)
K/K/Hawelti	0.84 (0.05)	0.33 (0.03)
Degua Temben	0.79 (0.05)	0.32 (0.03)
Enderta	0.61 (0.04)	0.26 (0.02)
Hintalo	0.75 (0.05)	0.28 (0.03)
HagereSelam	0.73 (0.06)	0.24 (0.03)
Adigudom	0.63 (0.07)	0.24 (0.03)

Source: Computed from the survey, 2021.

Values in brackets are standard errors.

Table A4. Food insecurity phases across woreda.

Woreda	Phase
	1	2	3	4	5
Adigrat_Town	14 (18.18)	6 (7.79)	6 (7.79)	21 (27.27)	30 (38.96)
Ganta Afeshum	29 (21.32)	9 (6.62)	17 (12.5)	24 (17.65)	57 (41.91)
Wukro_Town	15 (28.85)	5 (9.62)	2 (3.85)	5 (9.62)	25 (48.08)
KilteAwlaelo	53 (36.55)	3 (2.07)	6 (4.14)	22 (15.17)	61 (42.07)
Freweyni_Town	11 (34.38)	3 (9.38)	3 (9.38)	6 (18.75)	9 (28.13)
Atsibi	7 (28)	3 (12)	2 (8)	8 (32)	5 (20)
Aksum_Town	21 (20.19)	1 (0.96)	6 (5.77)	25 (24.04)	51 (49.04)
Adwa	18 (8.18)	14 (6.36)	10 (4.55)	37 (16.82)	141 (64.09)
Naeder	16 (21.05)	4 (5.26)	1 (1.32)	10 (13.16)	45 (59.21)
Laelay Maychew	10 (9.62)	11 (10.58)	12 (11.54)	23 (22.12)	48 (46.15)
Tahitay Maychew	26 (20.16)	4 (3.1)	6 (4.65)	19 (14.73)	74 (57.36)
Ahferom	16 (19.75)	2 (2.47)	8 (9.88)	8 (9.88)	47 (58.02)
Adwa_town	8 (12.9)	4 (6.45)	3 (4.84)	10 (16.13)	37 (59.68)
Rama/Aderbaete_Town	2 (8)	1 (4)	2 (8)	8 (32)	12 (48)
Shire_Town	40 (25)	10 (6.41)	16 (10.26)	28 (17.95)	62 (39.74)
Tahtay Koraro	18 (18.75)	7 (7.29)	8 (8.33)	14 (14.58)	49 (51.04)
Endabaguna_Town	9 (20.45)	3 (6.82)	3 (6.82)	7 (15.91)	22 (50)
EmbaAlaje	6 (25)	3 (12.5)	1 (4.17)	4 (16.67)	10 (41.67)
Endamekoni	27 (28.72)	4 (4.26)	7 (7.45)	20 (21.28)	36 (38.3)
Maychew_Town	17 (30.91)	2 (3.64)	5 (9.09)	11 (20)	20 (36.36)
Raya Azebo	46 (35.66)	3 (2.33)	9 (6.98)	27 (20.93)	44 (34.11)
Mekoni_town	14 (30.43)	4 (8.7)	4 (8.7)	11 (23.91)	13 (28.26)
K/K/semien	13 (22.81)	8 (14.04)	5 (8.77)	9 (15.79)	22 (38.6)
K/K/Adihaqi	11 (28.95)	2 (5.26)	4 (10.53)	5 (13.16)	16 (42.11)
K/K/Kedamayweyane	10 (22.73)	2 (4.55)	4 (9.09)	14 (31.82)	14 (31.82)
K/K/Quiha	16 (40)	2 (5)	3 (7.5)	5 (12.5)	14 (35)
K/K/Hadnet	13 (28.89)	4 (8.89)	2 (4.44)	10 (22.22)	16 (35.56)
K/K/Ayder	28 (26.67)	5 (4.76)	7 (6.67)	12 (11.43)	53 (50.48)
K/K/Hawelti	8 (16)	6 (12)	1 (2)	13 (26)	22 (44)
Degua Temben	16 (20.51)	5 (6.41)	7 (8.97)	17 (21.79)	33 (42.31)
Enderta	51 (38.93)	7 (5.34)	12 (9.16)	16 (12.21)	45 (34.35)
Hintalo	23 (25.27)	15 (16.48)	4 (4.4)	10 (10.99)	39 (42.86)
HagereSelam	13 (27)	4 (8.33)	7 (14.58)	11 (22.92)	13 (27.08)
Adigudom	18 (36.73)	3 (6.12)	3 (6.12)	8 (16.33)	17 (34.69)

Source: Computed from the survey, 2021.

Values in brackets are %.

Table A5. Food security first level outcomes description and indicators of the IPC phases.

Food security first-level outcomes	Phase 1: Minimal/none	Phase 2: Stressed	Phase 3: Crisis	Phase 4: Emergency	Phase 5: Famine/catastrophe
Food consumption (focus on dietary energy intake)	Adequate (avg. 2200 kcal pp/day) and stable	Minimally adequate (*avg. 1966 kcal pp/day)	Food gap (below avg. 1966 kcal pp/day)	Large food gap (much below avg. 1966 kcal pp/day)	Extreme food gap (very much below avg. 1966 kcal pp/day)
Livelihood change (assets and strategies)	Sustainable livelihood strategies and assets	Stressed strategies and/or assets; reduced ability to invest in livelihoods	Accelerated depletion/erosion of strategies and/or assets	Extreme depletion/liquidation of strategies and assets	Near complete collapse of strategies and assets
Livelihood coping strategies:	No coping strategies was utilized by HH	Stress coping-strategies are the most severe strategies used by HH in the past 30 days, March 2021	Crisis coping-strategies are the most severe strategies used by HH in the past 30 days, March 2021	Emergency-coping strategies are the most severe strategies used by HH in the past 30 days, March 2021	Near exhaustion of coping capacity

HH: households.

Source: Researchers’ elaboration using IPC Global Partners (2019).

*To compute the kcal for the minimally adequate or Phase 2, $\frac{2200\mathrm{*}2100}{2350}=1966$, the 2350 kcal was used a benchmark (IPC Global Partner, 2019), which is equivalent to 2200 kcal in the case of Ethiopia. Thus, 2200 kcal was the per day per person energy requirement to have healthy and functional person.

Table 1. Intensity, depth, and severity of food insecurity of households by zone and settlement type.

Category		FIS0	FIS1	FIS2
Zone	Eastern	72.38 (27.62)	30.62	17.0
	Central	85.39 (14.61)	40.18	23.3
	Northwest	77.36 (22.64)	32.16	17.7
	Mekelle	73.88 (26.12)	29.6	14.9
	Southeast	69.52 (30.48)	27.01	13.5
	Southern	68.39 (31.61)	28.19	14.6
	Western*	69.82 (30.18)	29.36	15.7
Settlement type	Rural	81.17 (18.83)	36.68	19.2
	Urban	75.00 (25.00)	30.35	15.9
	Small towns	72.85 (27.15)	33.02	20.7
	Population	77.38 (22.62)	33.68	18.5

Source: Computed from the survey, 2021.

Value in parenthesis is the % of food secure households.

*Data for the Western zone was collected from the IDPs as it was impossible to get an access to conduct the survey since it is fully under the control of the Eritrean & Amhara forces.

Table 2. Estimates of acute food insecurity at regional and zone levels (IPC phase), 2021.

Zones	IPC-Phase 1 (%)	IPC-Phase 2 (%)	IPC-Phase 3 (%)	IPC-Phase 4 (%)	IPC-Phase 5 (%)
Central	14.6	5.12	5.99	17.48	56.8
Northwest	22.93	5.8	7.8	16.8	46.6
Eastern	27.2	6.1	8.3	18.2	40.24
Southern	31.5	4.6	7.5	20.92	35.5
Mekelle	26.1	7.7	6.9	17.94	41.42
Southeast	30.96	8.6	8.31	15.2	37.1
Western*	30.18	6.21	8.28	14.2	4.12
Total	22.63	6.07	7.24	17.32	44.71

Source: Computed from the survey, 2021.

* Data was collected from the IDPs.

Table 3. Rural–urban estimates of acute food insecurity (IPC phase), 2021.

Zones	None	Stressed	Crisis	Emergency	Catastrophe/famine
Rural	22.64 (309)	5.64 (77)	7.4 (101)	16.63 (227)	47.69 (651)
Small towns	28.04 (150)	5.79 (31)	5.79 (31)	17.01 (91)	43.36 (232)
Urban	25.35 (341)	6.62 (89)	7.66 (103)	18.14 (244)	42.23 (568)

Source: Computed from the survey, 2021.

Note: Values in parenthesis are the number of acute food insecure households in each IPC Phase.

Table 4. Determinants of food security.

Regressors	Dependent variables: food security, log of food expenditure per capita (food exp.), and calorie per adult equivalent (calorie)
	Food exp. (1)	Calorie (2)	Calorie (3)	Calorie (4)	Calorie (5)	Security (6)	Food exp. (7)
Log of conflict	−0.056*** (0.007)	−0.004** (0.002)	−0.006** (0.003)	−0.006** (0.003)	−0.008** (0.003)	−0.027** (0.012)	−0.099*** (0.01)
Log of price of mixed ‘taff’			−0.01 (0.009)	−0.001 (0.007)	−0.001 (0.007)	−0.057 (0.036)	−0.232*** (0.022)
Log of price of red ‘taff’			−0.057*** (0.016)	−0.037** (0.015)	−0.032** (0.015)	−0.26*** (0.071)	0.281*** (0.024)
Log of price of barley			−0.094*** (0.014)	−0.091*** (0.013)	−0.092*** (0.013)	−0.373*** (0.064)	−0.127*** (0.021)
Log of price of wheat			−0.115*** (0.012)	−0.124*** (0.01)	−0.126*** (0.01)	−0.368*** (0.051)	−0.077*** (0.017)
Log conflict* log of price			−0.007* (0.003)	−0.019** (0.007)	−0.023*** (0.006)	−0.059* (0.031)	−0.183*** (0.016)
Sex of head (dummy)				0.023 (0.028)	0.014 (0.028)	0.033 (0.129)	0.022 (0.071)
Log of family size				−0.946*** (0.036)	−0.955*** (0.035)	−3.27*** (0.163)	0.38*** (0.084)
Education of head (dummy)				−0.031 (0.023)	−0.018 (0.026)	0.102 (0.115)	−0.019 (0.064)
Marital status of head (dummy)				0.082** (0.032)	0.077** (0.032)	0.222 (0.147)	0.009 (0.079)
Log of age of head square				−0.07*** (0.019)	−0.075*** (0.019)	−0.229*** (0.086)	−0.112** (0.048)
Log of income per capita					0.024*** (0.003)	0.11*** (0.016)	0.022*** (0.006)
Category (dummy)					−0.016 (0.022)	0.041 (0.103)	−0.089 (0.06)
Support (dummy)					0.078*** (0.021)	0.389*** (0.098)	0.047 (0.052)
unemployment status(dummy)					−0.066*** (0.023)	−0.296*** (0.106)	−0.178*** (0.048)
Access to electricity (dummy)					0.122*** (0.024)	0.409*** (0.104)	0.098* (0.056)
Access to finance (dummy)					0.057** (0.024)	0.078** (0.03)	0.002 (0.055)
_cons	6.624*** (0.024)	7.333*** (0.016)	7.192*** (0.038)	8.131*** (0.145)	8.211*** (0.147)	2.243*** (0.683)	5.352*** (0.386)
R^2	0.034	0.001	0.07	0.287	0.306	0.331	0.342
RMSE	1.376	0.695	0.671	0.588	0.580	0.53	0.127
N	3245	3245	3245	3245	3245	3245	3245

Source: Computed from the survey, 2021.

Note: Values in parenthesis are robust standard errors.

* Significant at 10%, **Significant at 5%, and ***Significant at 1%.

IPC. (2019). Integrated food security phase classification technical manual version 3.0. Evidence and standards for better food security and nutrition decisions. Rome.

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