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Abstract
Iraq’s leaders are working to modernise its national-security institutions, and to manage the challenges arising from multiple subnational armed groups. The main groups, the Kurdish Peshmerga and the largely Shia Popular Mobilisation Units, or Hashd, are linked to the armed forces, but enjoy considerable autonomy. Iraq also has militias linked to region-wide resistance forces with ties to Iran. The Gaza war has triggered dozens of lethal encounters between these groups and the 2,500 US troops in Iraq, leading Baghdad to renegotiate the terms of security cooperation with Washington. Even if US and NATO forces leave Iraq, the Iraqi government will work to balance its relations with Tehran and Washington. Iraq therefore has a role to play in determining how the region finds a new equilibrium after the Gaza war. Iraq’s emerging security culture also provides an important case study of a country in transition from authoritarian rule.
Notes
1 See Simona Foltyn, ‘“Heist of the Century”: How $2.5bn Was Plundered from Iraqi State Funds’, Guardian, 20 November 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/20/heist-century-iraq-state-funds-tax-embezzlement.
2 It is worth noting that Iraq was never tempted by the Abraham Accords, the Trump-era project to encourage normalisation of security and economic relations between Israel and major Arab states, particularly in the Gulf, and it has not been involved in any talks (currently on hold) to expand the accords to Saudi Arabia.
3 Media Office of the Prime Minister of Iraq, ‘Prime Minister Mohammed S. Al-Sudani Participates in Al-Rafidain Forum For Dialogue 2024’, 3 March 2024.
4 Farhad Alaaldin, ‘Iraq Doesn’t Want to Be an Area for Settling Scores’, National, 8 February 2024, https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comment/2024/02/08/iraq-war-isis-terrorism-security/#Echobox=1707375003.
5 Iraq remains in a formal state of war with Israel and recently passed legislation criminalising any discussion of normalising relations in the absence of a resolution to the Palestine question.
6 Safa al-Sheikh Hussein, ‘Iraq’s Security Sector: Twenty Years of Dashed Hopes’, Chatham House, 17 April 2023, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/03/iraq-20-years-insider-reflections-war-and-its-aftermath.
7 The majority of troops assigned to what is technically a combined and joint task force (with a British deputy commander ) are American.
8 Rick Brennan, Jr, et al., Ending the U.S. War in Iraq: The Final Transition, Operational Maneuver, and Disestablishment of United States Forces–Iraq (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2013), pp. 62–4.
9 The full text of the ‘Withdrawal Agreement’ is available at https://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/world/20081119_SOFA_FINAL_AGREED_TEXT.pdf.
10 This paragraph is taken from Douglas Ollivant, ‘Why Iraq Is Calling for the Withdrawal of U.S. Forces’, Dispatch, 16 January 2024, https://thedispatch.com/article/why-iraq-is-calling-for-the-withdrawal-of-u-s-forces/.
11 David Witty, ‘The Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service’, Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, 2016, pp. 24–5.
12 Ibid., p. 11.
13 This is not true of all Hashd groups, however. The Christian, Shabak and Sunni brigades within the Hashd lack this orientation by definition. Those closely associated with the religious establishments in Najaf and Karbala are also unlikely to be closely aligned with the IRGC. Likewise, the Sadrist elements of the Hashd, despite being fiercely anti-US and anti-Israel, keep a critical distance from the IRGC and its training efforts.
14 See Christian Høj Hansen and Troels Burchall Henningsen, ‘Whose Proxy War? The Competition Among Iranian Foreign Policy Elites in Iraq’, Small Wars & Insurgencies, vol. 33, no. 6, 2002, pp. 973–98, https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2022.2064152.
15 According to Inna Rudolph: ‘The behavior of the Islamic resistance factions on the ground and their readiness to interfere in the national decision-making process depend more strongly on their domestic agenda as well as on their interpretation of the contours of power.’ Inna Rudolph, ‘Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units’, in Assaf Moghadam, Vladimir Rauta and Michel Wyss (eds), Routledge Handbook of Proxy Wars (Abingdon: Routledge, 2023), p. 359.
16 Hansen and Hennningsen, ‘Whose Proxy War?’, p. 983.
17 Max Matza, ‘Kataib Hezbollah: Iran-backed Group Suspends Attacks Against US After Drone Strike’, BBC News, 31 January 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68150359.
18 US Department of Defense, ‘Senior Defense, Military and State Department Officials Hold a U.S.– Iraq Higher Military Commission Background Briefing’, 25 January 2024, https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3656654/senior-defense-military-and-state-department-officials-hold-a-us-iraq-higher-mi/. The text of the ‘Strategic Framework Agreement for a Relationship of Friendship and Cooperation Between the United States of America and the Republic of Iraq’ signed on 17 November 2008 is available at https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/122076.pdf.
19 Barham Salih, ‘20 Years After Liberation, Iraq Needs Root-and-branch Reform’, Foreign Policy, 24 April 2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/24/iraq-war-liberation-saddam-political-system-constitution-reform/.
20 See Gillermo O’Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions About Uncertain Democracies (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986).
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Ellen Laipson
Ellen Laipson directs the International Security Program at George Mason University. She was the president of the Stimson Center, and before this served in the US government for 25 years.
Douglas Ollivant
Douglas Ollivant is a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) and Managing Partner at Mantid International. He previously served as Director for Iraq at the US National Security Council and is a retired US Army officer with two tours in Iraq.