Can primary voters still “kick the tires?” Trends in candidate events in the New Hampshire primary, 2004–2020

ABSTRACT

Ample evidence suggests that presidential primaries are fertile ground for personal appearances by candidates to matter, as candidates strategically decide when and where they appear, and voters learn about and may be more likely to vote for candidates they meet. Are recent presidential candidates engaging in less retail politicking in the New Hampshire primary than candidates in earlier cycles? An analysis of 6,079 candidate events from 2004 to 2020 finds that candidates are holding fewer events, that political parties and affiliated groups are sponsoring more events, and that primary events overall are trending away from ones where voters and candidates can interact. While less known candidates still hope an early state focus will catapult them to their party’s nomination, more famous candidates tend to hold fewer events with less opportunity for citizens to interact with them.

KEYWORDS:

• Presidential primaries
• Political parties
• Candidate appearances
• Campaign effects
• New Hampshire

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in Harvard Dataverse at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/UEDGFZ, reference number doi:10.7910/DVN/UEDGFZ.

Notes

¹ The few candidates who ran against an incumbent (i.e., Bill Weld running against Trump in 2020) are not included here.