Underdogs, bandwagons or incumbency? Party support at the beginning and the end of Australian election campaigns, 1983–2007

Abstract

In what ways, if any, do campaigns matter? Specifically, what can we say about election campaigns in Australia? If they shift votes, in what direction do voters move? A comparison of opinion poll data taken at the beginning of each of the last ten national elections with the distribution of the vote at the end of each campaign suggests that the gap in first preferences between government and opposition generally narrowed; certainly, it never widened. The data do not suggest that incumbency (being in government) is an advantage. Nor do the figures conjure visions of voters clambering on bandwagons—as we might expect if there were a ‘spiral of silence’. Instead, the data point to an underdog effect, with the party that starts behind making up ground on the party that starts ahead.

Keywords:

• Australian elections
• opinion polls

Acknowledgements

Research and writing time was facilitated by the Australian Research Council through its grant DP0987839.

Notes

 1. Phillip Coorey, ‘We're facing annihilation, says Howard’, Sydney Morning Herald, 23 May 2007.

 2. Dennis Shanahan, ‘Election will be close, insists Rudd’, The Australian, 1 October 2007.

 3. Laurie Oakes, ‘The old master v the cliché kid’, The Bulletin, 23 October 2007.

 4. Dennis Shanahan, ‘PM's stock rises on IR, economy’, The Australian, 17 October 2007.

 5. Sol Lebovic, ‘Voters who count will make up minds in campaigns dying days’, The Australian, 15 October 2007.

 6. Morgan, ALP Maintains Big Lead Over Coalition, Finding No. 4245, 16 November 2007, http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4245/, accessed 27 July 2008.

 7. Christopher Pearson, ‘Fourth estate let us down’, Weekend Australian, 24–25 November 2007.

 8. Lateline, ABC, 16 November 2007, http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s2093591.htm, accessed 25 November 2007.

 9. Glenn Milne, ‘Howard must show fear’, The Australian, 21 May 2007.

10. Andrew Gelman and Gary King, ‘Why are American presidential election campaign polls so variable when votes are so predictable?’, British Journal of Political Science, 1993, vol 23, pp 409–51.

11. JDB Miller, Australian Government and Politics: An Introductory Survey, Duckworth, London, 1954, p 56.

12. Antony Green, ‘What a very good thing a buffer is’, Sydney Morning Herald, 15 October 2007.

13. Richard Farmer, ‘Election in Perpetuum: focus groups, image and the never–ending sell’, in Christian Kerr (ed.), The Crikey Guide to the 2007 Federal Election, Penguin Books, Melbourne, 2007, pp 176–89. It is ninety years since Walter Lippmann noted how `groups conduct a continual electioneering campaign'; Liberty and the News, Harcourt, Brace and Howe, New York, 1920, p 61.

14. Christopher Wlezien and Pippa Norris, ‘Conclusion: whether the campaign mattered and how’, in Pippa Norris and Christopher Wlezien (eds), Britain Votes 2005, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005, p 216.

15. See, for example, Sol Lebovic, `Parkers the key to ALP prospects', The Australian, 4 October 2006.

16. See, for example, Peter Brent, ‘Poll position: making sense of opinion polls’, in Christian Kerr (ed.), The Crikey Guide to the 2007 Federal Election, Penguin Books, Melbourne, 2007, p 147.

17. Lateline, ABC, 16 February 2007, http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s1850114.htm, accessed 30 June 2008; Lateline, ABC, 25 May 2007, http://www.abc. net.au/lateline/content/2007/s1933887.htm, accessed 25 November 2007; Lateline, ABC, 19 October 2007, http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s2064877.htm, accessed 25 November 2007; Lateline, ABC, 2 November 2007, http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s2080724.htm, accessed 25 November 2007.

18. Gelman and King, op. cit., pp 423–24, for the US.

19. Robert Haupt with Michelle Grattan, 31 Days to Power: Hawke's Victory, George Allen & Unwin, Sydney, 1983; Craig McGregor, Time of Testing: The Bob Hawke Victory, Penguin Books, Melbourne, 1983; Anne Summers, Gamble for Power: How Bob Hawke Beat Malcolm Fraser: The 1983 Federal Election, Thomas Nelson Australia, Melbourne, 1983.

20. Pamela Williams, The Victory: The Inside Story of the Takeover of Australia, Allen & Unwin, St Leonards, NSW, 1997.

21. Peter Hartcher, To the Bitter End: The Dramatic Story Behind the Fall of John Howard and the Rise of Kevin Rudd, Allen & Unwin, Crows Nest, NSW, 2009; Peter van Onselen and Philip Senior, Howard's End: The Unravelling of a Government, Melbourne University Press, Carlton, 2008; Nicholas Stuart, What Goes Up…: Behind the 2007 Election, Scribe, Melbourne, 2007; and Christine Jackman, Inside Kevin 07: The People. The Plan. The Prize, Melbourne University Press, Melbourne, 2008.

22. Gelman and King, op. cit., p 431.

23. ibid., pp 434, 448n55, 449.

24. ibid., p 420.

25. ibid., p 435ff.

26. See, for example, Murray Goot, ‘The performance of the polls’, in Marian Simms and John Warhurst (eds), Howard's Agenda: The 1998 Australian Election, University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 2000, p 44; but cf. Murray Goot, ‘The polls: Labor, Liberal or too close to call?’ in Marian Simms and John Warhurst (eds), Mortgage Nation: The 2004 Australian Elections, API Network and Curtin University of Technology Press, Perth, 2005.

27. Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann, The Spiral of Silence: Public Opinion—Our Social Skin, second edition, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1993.

28. See Murray Goot, ‘Getting it wrong while getting it right: the polls, the press, and the 2007 Australian election’, Australian Cultural History, vol 27, no 2, 2009, pp 119–20, Table 1.

29. Murray Goot, ‘The performance of the polls’, op. cit., p 40.

30. Murray Goot, ‘Turning points: for whom the polls told’, in John Warhurst and Marian Simms (eds), 2001: The Centenary Election, University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 2002, pp 65, 67.

31. Malcolm Mackerras, ‘The pendulum revisited’, in Marian Simms and John Warhurst (eds), Howard's Agenda: The 1998 Australian Election, University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 2000, p 225; see also Rodney Cavalier, ‘Realigning the planets: when Kevin took a walk down the corridor with Kim, the next federal election was decided’, Australian Cultural History, vol 27, no 2, pp 195–204.

32. Unless otherwise stated, all polls were conducted by telephone. Lags are calculated by subtracting the mid‐point of the fieldwork period from the election announcement and, where necessary, rounding up.