Whatever Happens to Somalia…Ignoring it is No Longer an Option

Abstract

The war against terrorism has brought Somalia, a country located in a key strategic region, back onto the radar of US and Western security concerns. Following a vicious civil war, a failed peace support operation and several attempts to start a peace process, lawless Somalia, a country without government, has gained the potential to be exploited as a terrorist base. Although this country in the Horn of Africa does not represent a direct and immediate threat to the US or its Western allies, its potential to destabilize the region is extremely high. This article offers an analysis of Somalia's potential to become a ground for terrorist activities and suggests a two-track approach. On the one hand, US foreign and security policy in Somalia needs to be more assertive; on the other, the only way to prevent Somalia from becoming a fertile ground for international terrorist groups is to help stabilize the country. In order to achieve this objective, it is crucial to adopt any initiative aimed at strengthening Somalia's civil society.

Notes

 1. The National Security Strategy of the United States (Washington, DC: The White House, September 2002).

 2. US President, Presidential Review Memorandum, National Security Council 21 (NSC-21), ‘The Horn of Africa’, 17 March 1977, p. 2. [page inserted?].

 3. US President, A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement (Washington, DC: The White House, February 1996). Available at: < www.fas.org/spp/military/docops/national/1996stra.htm>, accessed 10 October 2003.

 4. US Department of Defense, Office of International Security Affairs, ‘U.S. Security Strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa’, Defense Issues Vol. 10, No. 78 (1995). Available at: < www.defenselink.mil/DoD>, accessed 6 October 2003.

 5. Susan E. Rice, ‘The New National Security Strategy: Focus on Failed States’, Policy Brief 116, (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, February 2003), p. 2.

 6. US National Security Advisor, ‘National Security Advisor Rice Briefs on Bush Africa Trip: Urges Focus on Administration's ‘Positive Agenda’ for Africa’ (Washington, DC: The White House, 3 July 2003). Available at: < http://usinfo.state.gov/regional/af/potus2003/a3070307.htm>, accessed 30 October 2003.

 7. US Department of State, Office of the Coordinator of Counter-Terrorism, ‘Patterns of Global Terrorism: 2001’, 21 May 2002. Available at: < http://state.gov/sct/rls/pgtrpt/2001/html/10236.htm>, accessed 13 September 2003.

 8. ‘And The Arms Flow On’, Africa Confidential, Vol. 43, No. 12, 14 June 2002, p. 6.

 9. US President, The National Security Strategy of the United States, September 2002, (Washington, DC: The White House).

10. National Security Strategy, September 2002, pp. 10–11.

11. US President, Executive Order 13224, ‘Blocking Property and Prohibiting Transactions with Persons Who Commit, Threaten to Commit, or Support Terrorism’, Federal Register, Vol. 66, No. 186, (Washington, DC: Federal Registry), 25 September 2001, pp. 49079-49083.

12. Osman Hassan, ‘Chairman of al-Barakaat Group Says Charges They Were Involved in Terrorism are Untrue and Unfounded’, Associated Press, 7 November 2001. Available at: < http://multimedia.belointeractive.com/attack/response/1107somalia.html>, accessed 28 October 2003.

13. ‘Shutdown of Money Transfer Firm Means Severe Hardships for Somalis’, The Final Call Newspaper, 20 September 2001. Available at: < www.finalcall.com/international/somalis_bush11-20-2001.htm>, accessed 22 April 2004.

14. ‘Shutdown of Money Transfer Firm Means Severe Hardships for Somalis’, The Final Call Newspaper, 20 September 2001. Available at:www.finalcall.com/international/somalis_bush11-20-2001.htm, accessed 22 April 2004

15. Hawala is an informal banking system used to move assets. Money is received for the purpose of making it or an equivalent value payable to a third party in another geographic location. Transfers generally take place through non-bank money service businesses, often unregulated and undocumented business entities whose primary business may not be the transmission of money. It often involves transactions out of the US to remote areas without a formal banking system or with weak financial regulations.

16. Paul Beckett and Glenn R. Simpson, ‘Suspect Network Used Major U.S. Banks to Make Wire Transfers’, Wall Street Journal, 9 November 2001, p. A4.

17. US Department of Treasury, Office of Public Affairs, ‘Remarks by Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill on New U.S.-Saudi Arabia Terrorist Financing Designations’, (Washington, DC: Dept. of Treasury, 2002). Available at: < www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/pol1086.htm>, accessed 11 September 2003.

18. According to the al Haramain website, the charity provides lawful and civic services, which benefit Somali society. It has: (1) constructed over 1,299 mosques, (2) operates over 20 orphanages, (3) provides food and water programs, (4) provides medical facilities and (5) issued over 20 million Quran books and pamphlets. ‘A Brief Synopsis of Al Haramain Foundation Activities’, Al Haramain Islamic Foundation, 18 March 2003. Available at: < www.alHaramain.org/ouractivities/somalia.htm>, accessed 25 August 2004.

19. General Accounting Office (GAO), Terrorist Financing: U.S. Agencies Should Systematically Assess Terrorists’ Use of Alternative Financing Mechanisms, Report to Congressional Requesters (Washington, DC: GAO Publication), GAO-04-163, November 2003, p. 14.

20. ‘Somalis Worried at Reports of US Strikes’, BBC News, 4 December 2001. Available at: < http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/1691969.stm>, accessed 24 October 2003.

21. ‘Somalis Worried at Reports of US Strikes’, BBC News, 4 December 2001. Available at:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/1691969.stm, accessed 24 October 2003

22. ‘And The Arms Flow On’, p. 6.

23. US Congress, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Foreign Policy Overview and the President's Fiscal Year 2003 Foreign Affairs Budget Request, Hearings, 107th Cong., 2nd session, 5 February 2002, Committee Print, p. 33.

24. Interview with Deputy Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, New York Times, 7 January 2002, transcription produced by the Federal News Service (Washington, DC: DoD), 2002. Available at: < www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/2002/t01132002_t0107dsd.html>, accessed 7 April 2004.

25. US Congress, Senate Sub-Committee on African Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Policy Options in Somalia, 107th Cong., 2nd session, 2002, Committee Print, p. 7.

26. Tom Duhs, ‘The War on Terrorism in the Horn of Africa’, Marine Corps Gazette, April 2004, p. 58.

27. UN Security Council, ‘Situations in Iraq, Middle East, Afghanistan, Africa Among Key Issues Before Security Council in 2003’, 2003 Round-Up, Briefing Paper #12 (New York: The United Nations, 2004).

28. International Crisis Group, Somalia: Continuation of War by Other Means?, Crisis Group Africa Report No. 88, 21 December 2004, p. 15.

29. Roland Marchal, ‘Islamic Political Dynamics in the Somali Civil War’ in Alex De Waal (ed.), Islamism and Its Enemies in the Horn of Africa (Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 2004), p. 129.

30. International Crisis Group, p. 15

31. Adam Ulan, Ogaden national Liberation Front (ONLF), Defense and Foreign Affairs Strateguc Policy, 8 July 2004, p. 9.

32. Ken Menkhaus, ‘Somalia: State Collapse and the Threat of Terrorism’, Adelphi Paper, No. 364 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004), p. 12.

33. Debbie Hiller and Brian Wood, ‘The Case for Tough International Arms Control’, Shattered Lives Report (Oxford: Amnesty International and Oxfam International, 2003), p. 47.

34. Debbie Hiller and Brian Wood, ‘The Case for Tough International Arms Control’, Shattered Lives Report (Oxford: Amnesty International and Oxfam International, 2003), p. 47

35. UN Security Council, Report of the Panel of Experts on Somalia Pursuant to Security Council Resolution 1474, 4 November 2003, press release, S/1035, p. 11.

36. UN Security Council, Report of the Panel of Experts on Somalia Pursuant to Security Council Resolution 1474, 4 November 2003, press release, S/1035 p. 16, p. 16.

37. Gregory Copley, ‘Somalia's al-Ittihad al-Islami: A Key Factor in the Stability of the Horn of Africa’, Defense and Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, 12 November 2001, p. 59.

38. UN Security Council, S/1035, p. 19.

39. UN Security Council, S/1035.

40. UN Security Council, S/1035 p. 23, p. 23.

41. Khat is a green leafy plant whose leaves are chewed and its juices swallowed to produce a mild cocaine-like euphoria. It is a natural amphetamine with side affects that can include depression, excitation, hallucinations and other psychological disorders. Khat is legal in Somalia but illegal in the US.

42. ‘Khat Shortage Hits Somalia’, BBC News, 31 July 2001. Available at: < http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/1466253.stm>, accessed 8 April 2004.

43. Irvin Lim Fang Jau, Maj, Singapore Air Force, and Douglas Tastad, USN, ‘Global White Powder Keg: The Smoking Gun of Drug Money and Dirty Wars’, Pointer, January–March 2002. Available at: < www.mindef.gov.sg/safti/pointer/back/journals/2002/Vol28_1/6.htm>, accessed 9 September 2003.

44. Drug Enforcement Agency, ‘Drug Intelligence Brief: Khat,’ June 2002. Available at: < www.usdoj.gov/dea/pubs/intel/02032/02032p.html>, accessed 28 March 2004.

45. US Congress, Senate Judiciary Committee, NARCO-Terrorism: International Drug Trafficking and Terrorism – A Dangerous Mix, 108th Cong., 1st session, 2003, Committee Print.

46. US Congress, Senate Committee on Armed Services, The Worldwide Threat to United States Interests, Hearings, 107th Cong., 2nd session, 19 March 2002, Committee Print.

47. International Crisis Group, Somalia: Countering Terrorism in a Failed State, African Report No. 45 23 May 2002, p. 14.

48. David H. Shinn, ‘Somalia: Another Foreign Policy Challenge for the United States’, lecture presented at the Somali Confederation, Minneapolis, MN, 21 May 2002. Available at: < www.ethiopianembassy.rog/newsarchive.shtml>, accessed 2 February 2004.

49. US Department of State, Office of the Coordinator of Counter-Terrorism, ‘Patterns of Global Terrorism: 2001’, 21 May 2002. Available at: < http://state.gov/sct/rls/pgtrpt/2001/html/10236.htm>, accessed 13 September 2003.

50. ‘Islamic Group Suspected in Kenya Attacks: Somali-Based Al-Ittihad Al Islami May Have Links to Al Queda’, CNN, 29 November 2002. Available at: < www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/africa/11/29/somali.group>, accessed 29 January 2004.

51. US Congress, House Armed Services Committee, ‘Statement of General Tommy R. Franks, Commander in Chief, U.S. Central Command’, press release, 27 February 2002. Available at: < http://armedservices.house.gov/openingstatementsandpressreleases/107thcongress/02-02-27franks.html#_ftnref1>, accessed 30 March 2004.

52. David H. Shinn, ‘The Horn of Africa and International Terrorism’, The Elliot School of International Affairs (Washington, DC: George Washington University), 29 January 2002. Available at: < www.gwu.edu/elliot/news/transcripts/shinn.html>, accessed 30 March 2004.

53. Marchal, p. 140.

54. Through Our Enemies’ Eyes: Osama bin Laden, Radical Islam and the Future of America (Washington, DC: Brassey's Inc., 2002), p. 179.

55. Marchal, p. 128.

56. Alex de Waal, ‘The Politics of Destabilisation in the Horn, 1989 – 2001, in Alex de Waal (ed) op. cit., p. 213.

57. Copley, ‘Somalia's al-Ittihad al-Islami’, p. 10.

58. Shinn, ‘Somalia: Another Foreign Policy Challenge’.

59. Copley, ‘Somalia's al-Ittihad al-Islami’, p. 8.

60. US Congress, Senate Sub-Committee on African Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Policy Options in Somalia, 107th Cong., 2nd session, 2002, Committee Print.

61. US Congress, Senate Sub-Committee on African Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Policy Options in Somalia, 107th Cong., 2nd session, 2002, Committee Print

62. ‘Islamic Group Suspected in Kenya Attacks: Somali-Based Al-Ittihad Al Islami May Have Links to Al Queda’, CNN, 29 November 2002. Available at: < www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/africa/11/29/somali.group>, accessed 29 January 2004.

63. US Congress, The Worldwide Threat to United States Interests, p. 11.

64. Anthony H. Cordesman, ‘Taking a New Look at Afghanistan and the War on Terrorism’, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8 January 2002. Available at: < www.csis.org/features/cord_020108.htm>, accessed 31 March 2004.

65. The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, ‘President Bush Welcomes President Kibaki of Kenya to the White House’, remarks by President Bush and President Kibaki of the Republic of Kenya at the State Arrival Ceremony (Washington, DC: The White House, 6 October 2003). Available at: < www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/10/20031006-1.html>, accessed 20 April 2004.

66. Rice, ‘The New National Security Strategy’.

67. Emily Clark, Somalia: A Litmus Test for US Terrorism Policy, Center for Defense Information, Terrorism Project, February 22, 2002.

68. Michael Westfal, transcription of 2 April 2002 DoD News Briefing of Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs produced by The Federal News Service, (Washington: DoD), 2002. Available at: < www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/2002/t04022002_t0402dasdaa.html>, accessed 7 April 2004.

69. Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa. Available at: < www.cjtfhoa.centcom.mil\links.asp>, accessed 21 March 2004.

70. CJTF-HOA.

71. CJTF-HOA

72. ‘U.S. Aircraft Monitoring Coasts of Somalia, Yemen’, CNN, 4 January 2002. Available at: < http://cnn.com/2002/US/01/04/ret.surveillance/?related>, accessed 22 March 2004.

73. ‘U.S. Aircraft Monitoring Coasts of Somalia, Yemen’, CNN, 4 January 2002. Available at:http://cnn.com/2002/US/01/04/ret.surveillance/?related, accessed 22 March 2004

74. Rice, ‘The New National Security Strategy’, p. 5.

75. Jim Garamone, ‘Waging the War on Terror in the Horn of Africa’, American Forces Press Service, 20 December 2003.

76. Jim Garamone, ‘Waging the War on Terror in the Horn of Africa’, American Forces Press Service, 20 December 2003

77. Duhs, ‘The War on Terrorism in the Horn of Africa’, p. 57.

78. Matt Bryden, ‘No Quick Fixes: Coming to Terms with Terrorism, Islam and Statelessness in Somalia’, The Journal of Conflict Studies (Fall 2003) Vol. XXII, No. 2, p. 50.

79. David H. Shinn, ‘Terrorsim in East Africa and the Horn: An Overview’, The Journal of Conflict Studies, (Fall 2003) Vol. XXII, No.2, p. 87.

80. Jakkie Cilliers, ‘Terrorism and Africa’, African Security Review, Vol. 12. No. 4 (2003), p. 101.

81. Jakkie Cilliers, ‘Terrorism and Africa’, African Security Review, Vol. 12. No. 4 (2003) p. 99, p. 99.

82. Abdi Ismail Samatar and Ahmed I. Samatar, ‘Somalia's Worrisome Leadership: What Next?’, 20 October 2004. Available at:  < www.benadir-watch.com/1020 Samatar.pdf>, accessed 15 February 2005.

83. Abdi Ismail Samatar and Ahmed I. Samatar, ‘Somalia's Worrisome Leadership: What Next?’, 20 October 2004

84. Duhs.

85. ‘Somalia's Looted US Flag Returns Home’, BBC News, 4 April 2002. Available at: < http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/1911202.stm>, accessed on 4 February, 2005.