https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5718-980X
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ABSTRACT
This study examines the geostrategic importance of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), discusses its potential trade impacts on African states, and considers whether it could support regional peace. Regional integration is crucial for achieving industrialisation, promoting trade across African borders, and preserving regional peace and security. Inextricably linked to regional integration is a security community comprising a distinct group of individuals for whom the likelihood of large-scale conflict or violence has diminished. A comparative analysis was conducted using Africa’s trade patterns, milestones, and achievements during 2015–2017 and 2022–2023. Subsequently, the key causes of insecurity on the African continent were explored, focusing on the Regional Economic Communities and states embroiled in coups during 2020–2023. The findings suggest that African authorities view the AfCFTA positively and believe economic integration may bring about peace. However, African authorities would require a strong continental strategy – supported by robust regional and national programmes – to promote investor confidence and trade, considering Africa’s high levels of intercommunal violence, civil unrest, violent extremism, terrorism, and transnational crime. The AfCFTA delayed trade liberalisation to protect Africa’s less developed economies, resulting in poor working conditions, intellectual capital loss, and decreased tax collection.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 UN Doc, ‘Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’.
2 Olawunmi, ‘The African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement Vis-a-Vis Its Data Protection Concerns’.
3 Phiri and Nakubyana, ‘Leveraging the BRI for Africa’s Industrialisation and Intra-Trade (Opportunities for the AfCFTA)’; Adeboje et al., ‘Trade Integration, Growth and Employment in West Africa: Implications for African Continental Free Trade Area (Afcfta)’.
4 Obeng-Odoom, ‘The African Continental Free Trade Area’.
5 Ismail, ‘Beyond the Just Energy Transition Narrative: How South Africa Can Support the AfCFTA to Advance Climate Resilient Development’.
6 Songwe, ‘Intra-African Trade: A Path to Economic Diversification and Inclusion’.
7 De Melo and Twum, ‘Prospects and Challenges for Supply Chain Trade under the Africa Continental Free Trade Area’; Gibbon and Ponte, ‘Trading Down: Africa, Value Chains, and the Global Economy’; Fotoyi, ‘Africa’s Economic Transformation and Global Value Chains’.
8 Gibbon and Ponte, Trading Down: Africa’; Fotoyi, ‘Africa’s Economic Transformation’.
9 Saba, ‘An Investigation of Security Outcome Convergence and the Dynamics of Their Influencing Factors in Africa’.
10 Matlosa et al.; Oxford Analytica. ‘West African Coups Will Challenge ECOWAS's Credibility’; Okoli and Ezeani, ‘Counter Insurgency in West Africa: An Assessments of African Peace and Security Architecture’; Ojo et al., ‘HIV, Tuberculosis, and Food Insecurity in Africa – A Syndemics-Based Scoping Review’; Udombana, ‘Articulating the Right to Democratic Governance in Africa’; Leininger, ‘A Strong Norm for Democratic Governance in Africa’.
11 Oxford Analytica, ‘West African Coups’.
12 Chin and Kirkpatric, ‘African Coups in the COVID-19 Era: A Current History’.
13 Isilow, ‘Why are Military Coups on the Rise in Africa?’; van Nieuwkerk, ‘The Impact of Digital-Driven Warfare on Africa.’; Joseph. ‘SADC and ECOWAS’S Peace and Security Architecture Preparedness and the COVID-19 Pandemic’.
14 Saba, ‘Security as an Outcome for Promoting Economic Prosperity in the Regional Economic Communities of Africa: Evidence from a Panel Data Analysis’.
15 Vogel, ‘Everyday Economic Experiences and Peace Processes’; Humphreys, ‘Economics and violent Conflict’.
16 Patrick, ‘Peace through Trade or Free Trade?’
17 Haggard and Kaufman. ‘The Politics of Stabilization and Structural Adjustment’; Mkandawire and Soludo, ‘Our Continent, Our Future: African Perspectives on Structural Adjustment’; Laurie. ‘ “The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse”: The Structural Causes of Crisis and Violence in Africa’; Abouharb and Cingranelli, ‘The Human Rights Effects of World Bank Structural Adjustment, 1981–2000’.
18 Humphreys, ‘Economics and Violent Conflict’.
19 Saba, ‘Security as an Outcome’; Saba, ‘An Investigation of Security’.
20 Arthur, ‘Promoting Security in Africa through Regional Economic Communities (RECs) and the African Union’s African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA)’.
21 Saba, ‘Security as an Outcome’.
22 De Melo and Twum, ‘Prospects and Challenges for Supply Chain Trade under the Africa Continental Free Trade Area’.
23 Fofack and Mold. ‘The AfCFTA and African Trade: An Introduction to the Special Issue.
24 Sone, ‘Interstate Border Disputes in Africa: Their Resolution and Implications for Human Rights and Peace’.
25 Obayelu et al., ‘Trade Effects, Policy Responses and Opportunities of COVID-19 Outbreak in Africa’.
26 Olayiwola, ‘Governing the Interface between the African Continental Free Trade Area and Regional Economic Communities Free Trade Areas: Issues, Opportunities and Challenges’.
27 Sempijja, ‘Security and AfCFTA: Opportunity for a More Integrated Approach to Continental Peace and Security’.
28 Hveem, ‘Explaining the Regional Phenomenon in an Era of Globalization’.
29 Gamble and Payne, ‘World Order Approach’.
30 Cheru ‘African Renaissance: Roadmaps to the Challenge of Globalization’.
31 Hettne, ‘7 Beyond the ‘New’ Regionalism’.
32 Ibid.
33 Mbuende, ‘The SADC: Between Cooperation and Development-an Insider Perspective’.
34 Wendt, ‘Anarchy is What States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics’.
35 Ngoma, ‘SADC: Towards a Security Community?’
36 Deutsch et al., ‘Political Community and the North Atlantic Area: International Organization in the Light of Historical Experience’.
37 Adler and Barnett, ‘Security Communities’.
38 Ngoma, ‘SADC: Towards a Security Community?’
39 Baregu and Landsberg, ‘From Cape to Congo: Southern Africa's Evolving Security Challenges’.
40 Deutsch, ‘The Analysis of International Relations (Vol. 12)’.
41 Adler and Barrett, ‘Security Communities’.
42 Ngoma, ‘SADC: Towards a Security Community?’
43 Ibid.
44 Baregu and Landsberg, ‘From Cape to Congo: Southern Africa's Evolving Security Challenges’.
45 Ngoma, ‘SADC: Towards a Security Community?’
46 Ibid.
47 Union, ‘Status of Integration in Africa (SIA IV)’.
48 Adebajo and Landsberg, ‘10 From Congo to Congo’.
49 Union, ‘Status of Integration in Africa (SIA IV)’.
50 Mansfield and Pevehouse, ‘Trade Blocs, Trade Flows, and International Conflict’.
51 Qobo, ‘3 Regional Integration, Trade and Conflict in Southern Africa’.
52 Ibid.
53 Ibid.
54 Munchie et al., ‘The Challenges of Regional Integration and its Implications for Higher Education’.
55 Ibid.
56 Badmus, ‘The African Mission in Burundi’.
57 Adler and Barrett, ‘Security Communities’.
58 Ngoma, ‘SADC: Towards a Security Community?’
59 Ibid.
60 Ravenhill, ‘Global Political Economy’.
61 Nye, ‘Peace in Parts: Integration and Conflict in Regional Organization’.
62 Haas, ‘The Unity of Europe. Political, Social and Economic Forces 1950–1957’.
63 Bachinger and Hough, ‘New Regionalism in Africa: Waves of Integration’.
64 Lotze et al., ‘Peacebuilding Coordination in African Countries: Transitioning from Conflict: Case Studies of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia and South Sudan’.
65 Uzodike, ‘The Role of Regional Economic Communities in Africa's Economic Integration: Prospects and Constraints’.
66 Franke, ‘Competing Regionalisms in Africa and the Continent's Emerging Security Architecture’; Karbo, ‘Introduction: Towards a New Pax Africana’.
67 Joseph, ‘SADC and ECOWAS’S Peace and Security Architecture Preparedness and the COVID-19 Pandemic’; Gumede, ‘The African Continental Free Trade Agreement and the Future of Regional Economic Communities’.
68 Marawako et al.,
69 Joseph. ‘SADC and ECOWAS’S Peace and Security’.
70 Olayiwola. ‘Governing the Interface’.
71 Olayiwola. ‘Governing the Interface’; Kuhlmann and Agutu, ‘The African Continental Free Trade Area: Toward a New Legal Model for Trade and Development’.
72 Kuhlmann and Agutu. ‘The African Continental Free Trade Area’.
73 Obasun, ‘Stimulating Intra-Africa Trade for Economic Growth through Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA) Exploring the Lingering Barriers to Success’.
74 Ibid.
75 Abrego et al., ‘The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model’.
76 Ibid.
77 Songwe, ‘Intra-African Trade: A Path to Economic Diversification and Inclusion’.
78 Ibid.
79 Olayiwola, Wumi. ‘Governing the Interface’.
80 Ibid.
81 Abrego et al., ‘The African Continental Free Trade Agreement’; Nzumile and Ismail. ‘Emperical Analysis of the Quality Infrastructure in Trade Facilitation within the African Continental Free Trade’; Olayiwola, Wumi. ‘Governing the Interface’.
82 Abrego et al., ‘The African Continental Free Trade Agreement’; Nzumile and Ismail, ‘Emperical Analysis of the Quality’; Olayiwola, Wumi. ‘Governing the Interface’; Sabela et al., ‘Unleashing the Development Potential of Africa’s Women through African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA)’.
83 Sabela et al., ‘Unleashing the Development Potential of Africa’s Women’.
84 Chivunga and Tempest, ‘Why Regional Value Chains in Africa need to Go Digital’.
85 Ibid.
86 Albert, ‘The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Opportunities and Challenges’; Fofack and Mold, ‘The AfCFTA and African Trade’.
87 Albert, ‘The African Continental Free Trade Agreement; Fofack and Mold, ‘The AfCFTA and African Trade’.
88 Morgan et al., ‘Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: Recent Trends Leading up to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)’.
89 Costantinos, ‘The African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement’.
90 Costantinos, ‘The African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement’; Saba, ‘Security as an Outcome’.
91 Morris and Fessehaie, ‘The Industrialisation Challenge for Africa: Towards a Commodities Based Industrialisation Path’; Gayi and Banini. ‘Does Africa Have What It Takes to Upgrade in Global Value Chains?’; Fofack, ‘Making the AfCFTA Work for “The Africa We Want”’.
92 Morris and Fessehaie, ‘The Industrialisation Challenge for Africa’; Gayi and Banini, ‘Does Africa Have What It Takes to Upgrade in Global Value Chains?’; Fofack, Hippolyte, ‘Making the AfCFTA work’; Coke-Hamilton, ‘The African Continental Free Trade Area’.
93 Coke-Hamilton, ‘The African Continental Free Trade Area’.
94 Fofack, ‘Making the AfCFTA work’; Kuhlmann and Agutu, ‘The African Continental Free Trade Area’.
95 Olayiwola, ‘Governing the Interface’; Mlambo et al. (2022).
96 Regional Economic Communities have unique Features and … – tralac, n.d; Ogbole and Ogochukwu, ‘African Continental Free Trade Area and Economic Integration in Africa’.
97 Ogbole and Ogochukwu, ‘African Continental Free Trade Area and Economic Integration in Africa’.
98 Kayizzi-Mugerwa et al., ‘Regional integration in Africa: An Introduction’; Arthur, ‘Promoting Security in Africa’.
99 Kayizzi-Mugerwa et al., ‘Regional Integration in Africa’; Arthur, ‘Promoting Security in Africa’.
100 BISCA et al., Free Trade, Peace and Prosperity.
101 Ibid.
102 Sone, ‘Interstate Border Disputes in Africa’.
103 Obayelu et al., ‘Trade Effects, Policy Responses and Opportunities of COVID-19 Outbreak in Africa’.
104 Ibid.
105 Fofack, ‘Making the AfCFTA.’; Moyo, ‘The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA)’.
106 Fofack, ‘Making the AfCFTA.’; Moyo, ‘The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA)’.
107 Mathibe, ‘Regional Cooperation and Integration: Intergovernmentalism Approach to Regional Integration: A Case of the African Continental Free Trade Area and Effects on Trade’.
108 Forrer et al., How Business Can Foster Peace’; Sempijja, ‘Security and AfCFTA: Opportunity for a More Integrated Approach to Continental Peace and Security’; BISCA et al., Free Trade, Peace and Prosperity.
109 Forrer et al., How Business Can Foster Peace’; Sempijja, ‘Security and AfCFTA: Opportunity for a More Integrated Approach to Continental Peace and Security’; BISCA et al., Free Trade, Peace and Prosperity.
110 Holtz, Leo. “Figure of the Week: The African Continental Free Trade Areas Impact on Income and Wages”, (2021).
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Juliet Eileen Joseph
Dr Juliet Joseph is a postdoctoral researcher of Politics and International Relations at the University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa.