https://orcid.org/0009-0003-3379-5655
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ABSTRACT
This research employs a theoretical framework to investigate the interplay between factors that lead from predatory governance and predatory rule to military coups, utilising the frustration-aggression theory as its guiding lens. It adopts a case-oriented approach and employs thematic analysis to examine the socio-economic, governance, and political environment that precipitated the August 2020 Malian military coup. Presenting seven key themes, it reveals how predatory rule and its manifestation in the Malian context, was a critical factor in paving the way for the military coup. The study provides critical reflections into the historical, regional, and political dynamics reshaping Africa’s changing political landscape. It presents a conceptual model to comprehend how predatory governance fosters conditions favourable for military coups. Insights from the Malian case study offers valuable perspectives for analysing events in comparable contexts. This understanding is crucial for grasping the precursors and impact of predatory rule and popular frustrations in contexts where military coups emerge.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Evans, ‘Predatory, Developmental, and Other Apparatuses’, 562.
2 Odigbo, Ezekewelu, and Okeke, ‘Democracy’s Discontent and the Resurgence of Military Coups in Africa’, 645.
3 ISS Live, Colonel F. Aboagye was a guest speaker at the Institute for Security Studies conference held in Addis Ababa, 14 September 2023, concerning the topic ‘Coups are back in Africa – what are we missing’.
4 The Economist, ‘Africa’s Coups are Part of a Far Bigger Crisis’.
5 Bidandi, Williams, and Waiswa, ‘An Evaluation of Predatory Governance’, 26.
6 Ibid., 26, 27.
7 PSC Insights, ‘Are Foreign Actors Scapegoated in Africa’s Coups’.
8 Lederer, ‘Mali’s President Announced Resignation after Armed Mutiny’.
9 Whitehouse, ‘Mali’, 131.
10 Lederer, ‘Mali’s President Announced Resignation after Armed Mutiny’.
11 Welch, Soldiers and State in Africa.
12 Thompson, ‘Regime Vulnerability and the Military Coup’.
13 Singh, Seizing Power, 5.
14 Marsteintredet and Malamud, ‘Coup with Adjectives’.
15 Chin and Kirkpatrick, ‘Data from: Colpus 1.1’.
16 Ibid.
17 Goldsmith, ‘Predatory versus Developmental Rule in Africa’, 88.
18 Ibid., 88.
19 Bavister-Gould, ‘Predatory Leaderships, Predatory Rule, and Predatory States’, 3.
20 Ibid., 1.
21 Ibid., 8.
22 Ibid., 2.
23 Bidandi, Williams, and Waiswa, ‘An Evaluation of Predatory Governance’, 28, 29, 31.
24 Ibid., 30.
25 Ibid., 31.
26 Ibid.
27 Bavister-Gould, ‘Predatory Leaderships, Predatory Rule, Predatory States’, 5.
28 Ibid., 5.
29 Bidandi, Williams, and Waiswa, ‘An Evaluation of Predatory Governance’, 31.
30 Odigbo, Ezekewelu, and Okeke, ‘Democracy’s Discontent and the Resurgence of Military Coups in Africa’, 646–53.
31 Ibid., 646.
32 Ibid., 647.
33 Ibid.
34 Ibid.
35 Ibid.
36 Ibid., 648.
37 Juma and Sabala, ‘Preventing the Spread of Violent Extremism in Africa’, 1.
38 Bleck, Dembele, and Guindo, ‘Malian Crisis and the Lingering Problem of Good Governance’.
39 Bodian, Tobie, and Marending, ‘The Challenges of Governance’.
40 Tobie, ‘Central Mali’.
41 Bleck and Michelitch, ‘The Malian Crisis of 2012 as an Empirical State Crisis’.
42 Coulibaly and Bratton, ‘Crisis in Mali: Ambivalent Popular Attitudes on the Way Forward’.
43 Tobie and Chauzal, ‘State Services in an Insecure Environment’, 10.
44 Bleck, Dembele, and Guindo, ‘Malian Crisis, Lingering Problem of Good Governance’, 2/3.
45 Coulibaly and Bratton, ‘Crisis in Mali’, 6.
46 Bodian, Tobie, and Marending, ‘The Challenges of Governance’, 4,5.
47 Tobie and Chauzal, ‘State Services in an Insecure Environment’, 10.
48 Bleck, Dembele, and Guindo, ‘Malian Crisis, Lingering Problem of Good Governance’, 9; Bleck and Michelitch, ‘The Malian Crisis Empirical State Crisis’, 607,611.
49 Bavister-Gould, ‘Predatory Leaderships, Predatory Rule, and Predatory States’, 2.
50 Odigbo, Ezekewelu, and Okeke, ‘Democracy’s Discontent, Resurgence of Military Coups in Africa’, 647.
51 Bodian, Tobie, and Marending, ‘The Challenges of Governance’, 5.
52 Coulibaly and Bratton, ‘Crisis in Mali’, 7.
53 Bodian, Tobie, and Marending, ‘The Challenges of Governance’, 11, 12.
54 Odigbo, Ezekewelu, and Okeke ‘Democracy’s Discontent, Resurgence of Military Coups in Africa’, 647.
55 Bodian, Tobie, and Marending, ‘The Challenges of Governance’, 13–5.
56 Ibid., 7–8.
57 Bleck and Michelitch, ‘The Malian Crisis Empirical State Crisis’, 613.
58 Bavister-Gould, ‘Predatory Leaderships, Predatory Rule, Predatory States’, 6.
59 Tobie, ‘Central Mali’, 15.
60 Ibid., 13.
61 Ibid., 4,5.
62 Ibid., 5.
63 Bleck, Dembele, and Guindo, ‘Malian Crisis, Lingering Problem of Good Governance’, 3.
64 Coulibaly and Bratton, ‘Crisis in Mali’, 6.
65 Tobie and Chauzal, ‘State Services in an Insecure Environment’, 10.
66 Tobie, ‘Central Mali’, 7.
67 Coulibaly and Bratton, ‘Crisis in Mali’, 4.
68 Odigbo, Ezekewelu, and Okeke, ‘Democracy’s Discontent, Resurgence of Military Coups in Africa’, 645.
69 Ibid., 645.
70 PSC Insights, ‘Are Foreign Actors Scapegoated in Africa’s Coups’.
71 Craven-Matthews and Englebert, ‘A Potemkin state in the Sahel’, 6.
72 Ibid., 12.
73 Bates, When Things Fell Apart, 53.
74 Ibid., 121.
75 Goldsmith, ‘Predatory versus Developmental Rule in Africa’, 95, 96.
76 Ibid., 96.
77 Ibid.
78 Odigbo, Ezekewelu, and Okeke, ‘Democracy’s Discontent, Resurgence of Military Coups in Africa’, 652.
79 Bavister-Gould, ‘Predatory Leaderships, Predatory Rule, Predatory States’, 2.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Deretha Bester
Deretha Bester is a South African Doctoral student at the Faculty of Political Science, Department of Security and Strategic Studies at Masaryk University, Czech Republic. Her areas of interest and research include African politics, violent extremism, governance issues and political violence with a keen focus on deciphering the evolving political landscape of West Africa.