Chinese Coercion, Wedge Strategies, and the U.S.-Philippine Alliance

ABSTRACT

During the Philippine presidency of Benigno Aquino III (2010–2016) and Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos, Jr. (2012), China carried out coercive diplomacy against the Philippines. Scholarship on Chinese policy focuses on the importance of Chinese sovereignty claims or Chinese domestic politics. Although the China-Philippine maritime dispute and domestic politics are important, they do not explain Chinese policy. Rather, China policy has reflected its determination to revise the regional security order, in which the United States cooperates with local powers to promote its military presence on China’s maritime frontier to resist Chinese regional influence.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

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³ Andrew Chubb, ‘PRC Assertiveness on the South China Sea’, International Security 45, (Winter 2020/21).

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⁸ Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 3rd ed. (New York: Knopf, 1960), p. 178.

⁹ Timothy W. Crawford, The Power to Divide: Wedge Strategies in Great Power Competition (Ithaca: Cornell University press, 2021), ch. 1. On Prussia’s wedge strategy during the wars of German unification, see Stacie E. Goddard, ‘When Right Makes Might: How Prussia Overturned the European Balance of Power’, International Security 33(3), (Winter 2008/09). On Napoleon’s wedge strategies, see R.B. Mowat, The Diplomacy of Napoleon (New York: Russell & Russell, 1971).

¹⁰ Timothy W. Crawford, ‘Preventing Enemy Coalitions: How Wedge Strategies Shape Power Politics’, International Security 35(4), (spring 2011), pp. 160–162.

¹¹ Yasuhiro Izumikawa, ‘To Coerce or Reward: Theorizing Wedge Strategies in Alliance Politics’, Security Studies 22(3), (2013), pp. 503. For a discussion of the ‘Crawford-Izumikawa debate’, Huang Yuxing, ‘An Interdependence Theory of Wedge Strategies’, Chinese Journal of International Politics 13(2), (2020), pp. 256–259. On entrapment, Glenn H. Snyder, ‘The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics’, World Politics 36(4), (July 1984).

¹² Allen S. Whiting, ‘ASEAN Eyes China: The Security Dimension’, Asian Survey 37(4), (April 1997); Ian James Storey, ‘Creeping Assertiveness: China, the Philippines and the South China Sea Dispute’, Contemporary Southeast Asia 21(1), (April 1999).

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¹⁵ Aurea Calica, Paolo Romero, and Pia Lee-Braga, ‘GA, Ju Vow to Turn South China Sea into “Area of Cooperation”’, Philippine Star, April 29, 2005, in BBC Worldwide Monitoring, April 29, 2005; Roel Landinin, ‘Hu Commits Chinese Companies to Dollars 1.5bn Investments and Loans in Philippines’, April 28, 2005.

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¹⁹ Luz Baguioro, ‘Manila and Beijing in Defence Accord’, Straits Times, September 4, 2004; Raissa Robles, ‘Arroyo Hails Military Ties, Joint Work on Spratlys’, September 8, 2004, https://www.scmp.com/article/469508/arroyo-hails-military-ties-joint-work-spratlys.

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²¹ ‘RP-China Two-Way Trade Volume Hits $30 Billion Two Years Ahead of 2010 Target’, Filipino Express, August 15, 2008.

²² Raissa Robles, ‘China Will Be Biggest Lender to Philippines’, South China Morning Post, January 14, 2007, https://www.scmp.com/article/578632/china-will-be-biggest-lender-philippines.

²³ Official Gazette, Republic of the Philippines, November 25, 2009, https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/2009/11/25/speech-of-president-arroyo-during-the-opening-ceremony-of-the-philippine-tourism-congress-and-the-php-555-billion-investments-in-tourism-infrastructure-milestone/; Speech of Official Gazette, Republic of the Philippines, June 10, 2010, https://mirror.officialgazette.gov.ph/2010/06/04/speech-of-president-arroyo-during-the-112th-philippine-independence-day-and-35th-anniversary-of-the-diplomatic-relations-between-the-republic-of-the-philippines-and-the-peoples-republic-of-ch/.

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²⁵ Huang Yadong, ‘Feilübin: 2008–2009 Nian Huigu yu Fazhan’ (The Philippines: Review of 2008 and the prospects for 2009), Dongnanya Zongheng (Crossroads: Southeast Asian studies), 3, (2009), p. 1, p. 19.

²⁶ Wang and Huang, ‘Feilübin: 2009 Nian Huigu yu 2010 Nian Zhanwang’, p. 33.

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²⁸ ‘Philippines Protests China’s Spratly Claim at UN’, Inquirer.Net, April 14, 2011, https://globalnation.inquirer.net/455/philippines-protests-chinas-spratly-claim-at-un; Norman Bordadora ‘“It’s West Philippine Sea”’, Philippine Daily Inquirer, June 11, 2011, https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/13833/%E2%80%98it%E2%80%99s-west-philippine-sea%E2%80%99; ‘Philippines to China: Don’t Intrude into Our Water’, SunStar, June 17, 2011, https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/230243/philippines-to-china-dont-intrude-into-our-water-; Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs, August 5, 2011, https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/2011/08/05/secretary-del-rosario-says-china%E2%80%99s-9-dash-line-is-%E2%80%9Ccrux-of-the-problem%E2%80%9D-in-wps-proposes-preventive-diplomacy%E2%80%9D-solutions/#:~:text=del%20Rosario%20today%20said%20that,Law%20of%20the%20Sea%20or.

²⁹ Aurea Calic, ‘Palace Stands by DFA in Protesting China’s Incursions’, PhilStar, January 11, 2012, https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2012/01/11/766429/palace-stands-dfa-protesting-chinas-incursions/amp/.

³⁰ Bernice Camille V. Bauzon, ‘Philippine-US Dialogue starts Today’, Manila Times,

January 27, 2011, https://www.manilatimes.net/2011/01/27/news/top-stories/philippines-us-dialogue-starts-today/644495; Official Gazette, Government of the Philippines, August 23, 2011, https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/2011/08/23/briefer-on-the-brp-gregorio-del-pilar/; “Philippines Warns of Arms Race in South China Sea, “Inquirer.Net, May 24, 2011, https://globalnation.inquirer.net/2247/philippines-warns-of-arms-race-in-south-china-sea.

³¹ Scott Weeden, ‘Palawan Gas Development Sparks Chinese Protest’, HartEnergy, November 14, 2011, https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/palawan-gas-development-sparks-chinese-protest-18465.

³² ‘Background Briefing with Senior Administration Officials’, November 14, 2011, https://2009–2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2011/11/177158.htm.

³³ Floyd Whaley, ‘Clinton Reaffirms Military Ties with the Philippines’, November 16, 2011, New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/world/asia/clinton-reaffirms-military-ties-with-the-philippines.html. Simone Orendain, ‘US Secretary of State Backs Philippines in South China Sea Dispute’, VOA, November 15, 2011, https://www.voanews.com/a/us-secretary-of-state-backs-philippines-in-south-china-sea-dispute-133951318/148254.html.

³⁴ ‘Secretary of State Clinton’s July 23, 2010, press availability’, https://2009–2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2010/07/145095.htm.

³⁵ ‘Remarks Prior to a Meeting With President Benigno S. Aquino III of the Philippines in Bali’, https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-prior-meeting-with-president-benigno-s-aquino-iii-the-philippines-bali.

³⁶ Weeden, ‘Palawan Gas Development Sparks Chinese Protest’; Norman Bordadora, ‘Aquino Bares Gas Deposits “So Enormous” in Recto Bank’, Inquirer.Net, November 13, 2011, https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/92985/aquino-bares-gas-deposits-%E2%80%98so-enormous%E2%80%99-in-disputed-spratlys.

³⁷ ‘Philippines Fines Chinese Fishermen $102,000 each for Poaching’, Reuters, November 24, 2011, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-china/philippines-fines-chinese-fishermen-102000-each-for-poaching-idUSKCN0J80F820141124; ‘Philippines Holds 6 Chinese for ‘Illegal Fishing’, Inquirer.Net, December 4, 2011, https://globalnation.inquirer.net/20225/philippines-holds-6-chinese-for-illegal-fishing.

³⁸ ‘Joint Statement of the United States-Philippines Bilateral Strategic Dialogue’, United States Department of State, January 27, 2012, https://2009–2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/01/182688.htm; John H. Cushman Jr. and Floyd Whaley, ‘Manila Negotiates Broader Military Ties With U.S.’, New York Times, January 26, 2012, https://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/27/world/asia/manila-negotiates-broader-military-ties-with-us.html; ‘Philippines Seeks to Strengthen US Defence Ties’, January 27, 2012, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-16754706.

³⁹ ‘The U.S.–Philippines Alliance: Deepening the Security and Trade Partnership’, Hearing Before the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives, February 7, 2012, p. 18, p. 24, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-112hhrg72789/pdf/CHRG-112hhrg72789.pdf.

⁴⁰ ‘Vietnam Accuses China of Harassing Another Boat’ Reuters, June 9, 2011, https://www.reuters.com/article/vietnam-china-sea/vietnam-accuses-china-of-harassing-another-boat-idUSL3E7H916L20110609.

⁴¹ Cris Larano, ‘Forum Energy to Explore Disputed South China Sea’, February 29, 2012, https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/115617/forum_energy_to_explore_disputed_south_china_sea/; ‘Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei’s Regular Press Conference on February 28, 2012’,https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/cgbus//eng/fyrth/t910845.htm; ‘China Disputes Philippine’s Oil Blocks’, UPI, March 1, 2012, https://www.upi.com/Energy-News/2012/03/01/China-disputes-Philippines-oil-blocks/10031330618461/.

⁴² ‘Philippines Sends Marines to Palawan to Defend Spratly Islands’, South China Morning Post, October 1, 2012, https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1051057/philippines-sends-marines-palawan-defend-spratly-islands.

⁴³ ‘Hu Jintao Holds Talks with Philippine President’, Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the United States, August 31, 2011, https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/ceus//eng/zgyw/t855400.htm. Cf., M. Taylor Fravel, ‘All Quiet in the South China Sea: Why China is Playing Nice (For Now)’, Foreign Affairs, March 22, 2012, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2012-03-22/all-quiet-south-china-sea.

⁴⁴ Cui Haipei, ‘Philippines Sends “Wrong Signal”’, China Daily, January 30, 2012, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2012–01/30/content_14502366.htm.

⁴⁵ ‘China Should Punish PH over US Offer: Report’, ABC-CBN News, January 29, 2012, https://news.abs-cbn.com/nation/01/29/12/china-should-punish-ph-over-us-offer-report.

⁴⁶ Liu Tian, ‘Proposed U.S.-Philippines Drills Raises Questions bout U.S. Intentions in Asia’, People’s Daily, January 23, 2012, http://en.people.cn/90780/7712035.html.

⁴⁷ Wu Jinping and Ju Hailong, ‘2011 Nian Feilübin Jingji, Zhengzhi yu Waijiao Xingshi Huigu’ (Looking back on the 2011 situation in the Philippine economy, politics and diplomacy), Dongnan Wenti (Southeast Asian studies), 2, (2012), pp. 26–27.

⁴⁸ Li Jinming, ‘Nanhai Wenti Xianzhuang ji qi Yingdui (The current situation in the South China Sea and the response), Xiandai Guoji Guanxi (Contemporary international relations), no. 8, 2012, p. 20; Zhang Diyu, ‘Nanhai: Zhongguo Jueqi Yali de Zuoyongdian’ (South China Sea: The point of impact of the Pressure of China’s Rise), Shijie Zhishi (World knowledge), December 16, 2011 (no, 24), p. 20.

⁴⁹ Ju Hailong, “Feilübin Nanhai Zhengce : Liyi Qudong de Zhengce Xuanze (Philippine South China Sea policy: Interest-drive policy choice), Dangdai Yatai (Journal of contemporary Asia Pacific studies) 3, (2012), p. 86.

⁵⁰ Li Jinming, ‘Nanhai zai Xian Fengbo: Feilübin xiang Lianheguo Tichu Kangyi’ (South China Seas again rocked by waves), Shijie Zhishi 10 (April 16, 2011), p. 32.

⁵¹ ‘Manila to Get More Armed Ships’, Huanqiu Shibao (Global times), January 19, 2012, https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/692811.shtml.

⁵² Wu and Ju, ‘2011 Nian Feilübin Jingji, Zhengzhi yu Waijiao Xingshi Huigu’, p. 28; Shao Jianping, ‘Feilübin: Zai Zhongguo Nanhai Tiaozhan Pinpin’ (The Philippines: Multiple challenges in the South China Sea), Shijie Zhishi, August 1, 2011, p. 40; Chen Bingxian, “Qianxi Jin Nian lai Feilübin de Nanhai Zhengce (Analysis of the Philippines South China Sea policy in recent years), Wuzhou Xueyuan Xuebao (Journal of Wuzhou University), 5, (2012), p. 35.

⁵³ Ju, ‘Feilübin Nanhai Zhengce’, p. 89, 92.

⁵⁴ Shi Yinhong, ‘Nanhai Wenti Jiujing “Nan” zai Nali?’ (Where is the ultimate ‘difficulty” in the South China Sea?), Aisixiang (Love thinking), June 3, 2012, http://www.aisixiang.com/data/53565.html; Shao, ‘Feilübin: Zai Zhongguo Nanhai Tiaozhan Pinpin’, p. 41.

⁵⁵ Maria Patrikainen, ‘Philippines, US Stand Shoulder-to-Shoulder to Reaffirm Military Ties’, IHS Global Insight, Wharton, University of Pennsylvania, March 9, 2012; ‘Philippines, US Hold War Games Amid Row with China’, Straits Times, April 17, 2012.

⁵⁶ Fu Ying, ‘Zhongguo de Huangyandao yu 2012 Nian de Huangyandao Shijian’, China’s Huangyan Island and the Huanyan Island event), South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, September 25, 2023, http://www.scspi.org/zh/dtfx/1695647997.

⁵⁷ Huang Yadong and Huang Shangkun, ‘Feilübin: 2012–2013 Nian Huigu yu Zhanwang’ (Philippines: Looking back on 2012–2013 and prosects for 2013), Dongnanya Zongheng (Around Southeast Asia), 3, (2013), p. 38; ‘Chinese Patrol Ship Reaches Waters Off Huangyan Island’, Renmin Ribao (People’s daily), April 20, 2012, http://en.people.cn/90883/7794408.html; Fu, ‘Zhongguo de Huangyandao yu 2012 Nian de Huangyandao Shijian’.

⁵⁸ ‘Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying Met with Charge D’affaires of the Philippine Embassy in China Again over the Incident at Huangyan Island’, Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Malaysia, May 9, 2012, http://my.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/zgxw/201205/t20120509_1712955.htm; Damian Grammaticas, ‘China Bangs the War Drum over South China Sea’, BBC News, May 10, 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-18016901.

⁵⁹ ‘Remarks with Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, Philippines Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario, and Philippines Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin Following their Meeting’, United States Department of State, April 30, 2012, https://2009–2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2012/04/188982.htm.

⁶⁰ ‘Joint Statement of the Philippines—United States Ministerial Dialogue, May 1, 2012’, https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/2012/05/01/joint-statement-of-the-philippines-united-states-ministerial-dialogue-may-1–2012/.

⁶¹ Ellen Tordesillas, ‘Back Channels Of Diplomacy: Trillanes, MVP, US Talk to China for PHL’, GMA News, September 21, 2012, https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/274903/back-channels-of-diplomacy-trillanes-mvp-us-talk-to-china-for-phl/story/.

⁶² Pia Lee-Brago, ‘Noy Orders Pullout of Ships from Shoal’, Philippine Star, June 17, 2012, https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2012/06/17/817864/noy-orders-pullout-ships-shoal; Fu Ying and Wu Shicun, ‘South China Sea: How We Got to This Stage’, National Interest, May 9, 2016, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/south-china-sea-how-we-got-stage-16118?nopaging=1; Fu, ‘Zhongguo de Huangyandao yu 2012 Nian de Huangyandao Shijian’.

⁶³ ‘Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei’s Regular Press Conference on May 25, 2012’, https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/cenz/eng/zt/mfasr/t936062.htm.

⁶⁴ ‘A Neutral US Helpful to Stability in S China Sea’, China Daily, May 7, 2012, http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2012–05/07/content_15226749.htm.

⁶⁵ ‘War Games Show Hypocrisy of US Intentions’, Huanqiu Shibao, April 17, 2012, https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/705198.shtml.

⁶⁶ Xin Qiang, ‘Wubu Zhengce: Meiguo Nanhai Zhengce Jiedu’ (The ‘five nos’ policy: An interpretation of U.S. South China Sea policy), Meiguo Yanjiu (American studies) 6, (2014), p. 60.

⁶⁷ Wang Chuanjian, ‘Nanhai Wenti yu Zhong Mei Guanxi’ (The South China Sea issue and China-U.S. Relations), Dangdai Yatai 2, (2014), p. 14.

⁶⁸ Wang Shumin, ‘Feilübin zai Nanhai Wentí shang yu Zhongguo de Duikang ji Yuanyin Fenxi—Yi Ajinuo Sanshi Shangen yilai Weili (An analysis of the Philippines’s confrontation with China on South China Sea Issues—A case study of incidents since Aquino III’s assumption of power)’, Hainan Shifan Daxue Xuebao (Journal of Hainan Normal University) 5, (2015), p. 108.

⁶⁹ Li Bin and Huang Baoming, ‘Mei Fei Junshi he Hezuo ji qi dui Nanhai Wenti de Yingxiang’ (U.S.-Philippines military cooperation and its influence on the South China Sea), Xue Lilun (Theory research) 30, (2012), p. 30.

⁷⁰ Ju Hailong, ‘Zhong Fei Haishang Anquan Guanxi de Tubian ji qi Yuanyin yu Yingxiang’ (The sudden change of China-Philippines maritime security relationship and its causes and effects), Guoji Anquan Yanjiu (Journal of international security studies), 6, (2013), pp. 76–77.

⁷¹ Li and Huang, ‘Mei Fei Junshi he Hezuo ji qi dui Nanhai Wenti de Yingxiang’, p. 30.

⁷² Fu Ying, ‘Zhongguo de Huangyandao yu 2012 Nian de Huangyandao Shijian’.

⁷³ Ju, ‘Feilübin Nanhai Zhengce: Liyi Qudong de Zhengce Xuanze’, p. 93.

⁷⁴ Zhang Yue, ‘Fei Yao Mei Kuoda de Zhu Jun, Weihe Yao Na “Lunzhu” zuo Huangzi?’ (The Philippines asked the US to station more troops. Why does it need to use rotation as an excuse?), Shijie Zhishi 19, October 1, 2013, p. 32.

⁷⁵ Huang and Huang, ‘Feilübin: 2012–2013 Nian Huigu yu Zhanwang’, p. 39.

⁷⁶ Zhang, ‘Haishang Fenzheng yu Zhong Mei Boyi—Zhongguo Zhoubian Anquan Xingshi’, Shijie Zhishi 2, (2013), p. 21; Wang Weiguang and Chen Yao, ‘Meiguo zai Pingheng Zhanlüe dui Zhongguo Haishang Lingtu Zhengduan de Yingxiang’ (The impact of America’s rebalancing strategy on China’s maritime territorial disputes), Dangdai Yatai 1, (2016), pp. 84–85, p. 93; Hu Bo, ‘Zhong Mei Nanhai Zhanlüe Boyi de Xianzhuang yu Weilai’ (Current situation in the China-US strategic game in the South China Sea and its future), Junshi Wenzhai (Military digest) 19, (2016), p. 16.

⁷⁷ Ju Hailong, ‘Feilübin Nanhai Zhengce zhong de Meiguo Yinsu’ (The U.S. factor in the Philippines South China Sea policy), Guoji Wenti Yanjiu (international studies) 3, (2013), p. 68, p. 68.

⁷⁸ Wang, ‘Nanhai Wenti yu Zhong Mei Guanxi’, p. 22–23.

⁷⁹ Ji Mingkui, ‘Feilübin “Bangdakuan” Nanjie Kunjng’, (Philippine ‘sugar daddy’ faces diplomatic dilemma), Aisixiang, March 9, 2013, https://www.aisixiang.com/data/61922.html; Ju, ‘Zhong Fei Haishang Anquan Guanxi de Tubian ji qi Yuanyin yu Yingxiang’, pp. 76–77; ‘Manila’s Provocations Reflect Weakness’.

⁸⁰ Zhang, ‘Haishang Fenzheng yu Zhong Mei Boyi—Zhongguo Zhoubian Anquan Xingshi’, p. 18; An Gang, ‘Nanhai Junshihua: Heiguo bu Gai Zhongguo Bei’ (Militarization of the South China Sea: China should not take the blame), Shijie Zhishi 9, (2016), p. 21; Huang and Huang, ‘Feilübin: 2012–2013 Nian Huigu yu Zhanwang’, p. 40.

⁸¹ Jaime Laude, ‘US Troops Can Use Clark, Subic Bases’, Philstar, June 6, 2012, https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2012/06/06/814109/us-troops-can-use-clark-subic-bases; ‘Obama Standing By PH’, Inquirer,net, June 10, 2012, https://globalnation.inquirer.net/39555/obama-standing-by-ph; DJ Yap, ‘Military Elated by US Promise of Radar System’, Inquirer.net, June 14, 2012, https://globalnation.inquirer.net/39971/military-elated-by-us-promise-of-radar-system.

⁸² ‘Philippines “To Take South China Sea Row to Court”’, BBC, January 22, 2013, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-21137144; ‘US Assures Phl of “Full Support” in Arbitration Bid’, Philstar, April 3, 2013, https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2013/04/03/926467/us-assures-phl-full-support-arbitration-bid.

⁸³ ‘Philippines Defends Arbitration Case Against China’, Associated Press, March 31, 2014, https://apnews.com/article/8c2b1a04e3a541df8d7606cb8d0e25df.

⁸⁴ https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/downloads/2014/04apr/20140428-EDCA.pdf.

⁸⁵ Raul Dancel, ‘Philippines Charges 9 Chinese Fishermen’, Straits Times, May 13, 2014, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/south-asia/philippines-charges-9-chinese-fishermen; Allan Macatuno, ‘PH-US War Games Start in Disputed Sea’, Inquirer.net, June 27, 2014, https://globalnation.inquirer.net/107201; ‘Philippines, U.S. Begin Military Exercises Near Disputed Seas’, Reuters, September 28, 2014, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-usa/philippines-u-s-begin-military-exercises-near-disputed-seas-idUSKCN0HO0AD20140929.

⁸⁶ Ju Xiudong, ‘Philippines Push for Arbitration is Doomed to Failure’. People’s Daily, April 2, 2014, http://en.people.cn/98649/8586579.html.

⁸⁷ Li Jinmin, ‘Zhong Fei Nanhai Zhengyi Buduan Shengwen de Chengyin Fenxi’ (Analysis of the causes of the growing disputes between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea), Guoji Guanxi Yanjiu; (Journal of international relations) 6, (2013), p. 27.

⁸⁸ ‘Philippine Pact Gives U.S. Access to Air, Sea Bases’, China Daily, April 29, 2014, http://en.people.cn/90777/8612967.html.

⁸⁹ Yang Chao, ‘Weirao Fei Mei Jiaqiang Fangwu Hezuo Xieyi (EDCA) de Feilübin Nanhai Zhanlüe Zhuanxiang ji qi Meiguo Yinsu’, (The Philippines’ strategic shift in the South China Sea and the U.S. factor around the US-Philippines Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement) Dongnanya Zongheng 6, (2015), p. 43, pp. 46–47.

⁹⁰ Zhou, ‘Meiguo de Yatai Tixi yu Zhongguo de Yingdui’, p. 20.

⁹¹ Zhang, ‘Fei Yao Mei Kuoda de Zhu Jun, Weihe Yao Na “Lunzhu” zuo Huangzi?’ p. 32; Ju, ‘Feilübin Nanhai Zhengce zhong de Meiguo Yinsu’, p. 68; Hu, ‘Zhong Mei Nanhai Zhanlüe Boyi de Xianzhuang yu Weilai’, p. 13. Also see Yu Zhengliang, ‘Meiguo Yatai zai Pingheng Zhanlüe de zai Pingheng’ (Rebalancing of America’s Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy), Guoji Zhancha (International review) 4, (2014), p. 27.

⁹² Zhou, ‘Meiguo de Yatai Tixi yu Zhongguo de Yingdui’, p. 20–21.

⁹³ Ju, ‘Zhong Fei Haishang Anquan Guanxi de Tubian ji qi Yuanyin yu Yingxiang’, pp. 77–78; Zhou, ‘Meiguo de Yatai Tixi yu Zhongguo de Yingdui’, p. 20.

⁹⁴ Megha Rajagopalan and Greg Torode, ‘China’s Civilian Fleet a Potent Force in Asia’s Disputed Seas’, Reuters. March 5, 2014, https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL3N0LW55T/.

⁹⁵ ‘Philippines Says China Used Water Cannon on Fishermen in Disputed Sea’, Reuters, February 24, 2014, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-southchinasea/philippines-says-china-used-water-cannon-on-fishermen-in-disputed-sea-idUSBREA1N0F820140224; ‘Philippines Says Chinese Ship Rammed Fishing Boats in Scarborough Shoal’. Reuters, February 4, 2015, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-china/philippines-says-chinese-ship-rammed-fishing-boats-in-scarborough-shoal-idUSKBN0L81IM20150204; ‘Philippines Accuses China of Turning Water Cannon on Fishing Boats’, Reuters, April 21, 2015, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-philippines-usa/philippines-accuses-china-of-turning-water-cannon-on-its-fishing-boats-idUSKBN0NC0MN20150421.

⁹⁶ ‘Aquino Says Chinese Survey Ships Seen in Philippine Waters’, Reuters, August 18, 2014, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-southchinasea/aquino-says-chinese-survey-ships-seen-in-philippine-waters-idUSKBN0GI0EK20140818; Jaime Laude, ‘Chinese Drones Fly Over Phl Ship in Ayungin’, Philippine Star, August 21, 2014, https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2014/08/21/1359978/chinese-drones-fly-over-phl-ship-ayungin; ‘Philippines Suspends Natural Gas Project in the South China Sea’, South China Morning Post, March 3, 2015, https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1728814/philippines-suspends-natural-gas-project-south-china-sea.

⁹⁷ Ben Dolven, et. al., ‘Chinese Land Reclamation in the South China Sea: Implications and Policy Options’, Congressional Research Service, June 18, 2015, R44072, p. 1, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R44072.pdf

⁹⁸ Zachary Keck, ‘Second Thomas Shoal Tensions Intensify’, Diplomat, March 13, 2014, https://thediplomat.com/2014/03/second-thomas-shoal-tensions-intensify/; Oliver Teves, ‘Philippines Protests China Stopping Resupply’, AP, March 11, 2014, https://apnews.com/article/d84673bfa55043aeaad1107bdd568801.

⁹⁹ Manuel Mogato, ‘Philippines Reinforcing Rusting Ship on Spratly Reef Outpost—Sources’, Reuters, July 13, 2015, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-philippines-shoal-exclu/exclusive-philippines-reinforcing-rusting-ship-on-spratly-reef-outpost-sources-idUSKCN0PN2HN20150714; Keck, ‘Second Thomas Shoal Tensions Intensify’; Jim Gomez, ‘Philippine Supply Ship Evades Chinese Vessel’, AP, March 29, 2014, https://apnews.com/article/4f20ea1440e6422697667059503ec0d0; Michael Green, et. al., ‘Counter-Coercion Series: Second Thomas Shoal Incident’, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 9, 2017, https://amti.csis.org/counter-co-2nd-thomas-shoal/.

¹⁰⁰ Huang and Huang, ‘Feilübin: 2012–2013 Nian Huigu yu Zhanwang’, p. 38; Paolo G. Montecillo, ‘Beijing-Manila Air Traffic Drops’, Philippine Daily Inquirer, September 24, 2012, https://business.inquirer.net/83548/beijing-manila-air-traffic-drops; ‘China Airline Cuts Flights to Philippines’, China Daily, May 17, 2012, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012–05/17/content_15315387.htm; ‘Chinese Travel Agencies Suspend Routes to Philippines’, Xinhua, May 10, 2012, http://www.china.org.cn/china/2012–05/10/content_25346287.htm.

¹⁰¹ ‘China Warns Citizens to Avoid Philippines’, Agence France Presse, September 12, 2014, https://ph.news.yahoo.com/china-warns-citizens-avoid-philippines-102953265.html; ‘Tourism Demand Statistics’, 2015, Department Of Tourism, Republic of the Philippines. http://www.tourism.gov.ph/tourism_dem_sup_pub.aspx.

¹⁰² Philippines Losing China Banana Market-Exporters Group, Philippines Daily Inquirer, June 18, 2012, https://business.inquirer.net/65695/philippines-losing-china-banana-market%E2%80%94exporters-group; ‘Philippine Banana Exports to China: Dealing with Sanitary and Phytosanitary Concerns’, Pilipino Banana Growers and Exporters Association, 2015, https://appfi.ph/resources/presentations/31-philippine-banana-exports-to-china-dealing-with-sanitary-and-phytosanitary-concerns.

¹⁰³ ‘Import Value of Philippine Food Products to China between 2009 and 2019’, Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/778933/china-food-imports-from-philippines/.

¹⁰⁴ ‘Value of Goods Imported from the Philippines to China from 2006 to 2021’, Statista.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525370/china-import-of-goods-from-the-philippines/.

¹⁰⁵ ‘Annual Flow Of Foreign Direct Investments from China to the Philippines Between 2010 and 2020’, Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/720386/china-outward-fdi-flows-to-the-philippines/; ‘How Do Investors Respond to Territorial Disputes?’, Singapore Economic Review 66(1), (2021).

¹⁰⁶ Ron Allen, ‘Philippine Leader Duterte Ditches U.S. for China, Says “America Has Lost”’, NBC News, October 20, 2016, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/philippine-leader-duterte-ditches-u-s-china-says-america-has-n670066; Jim Gomez, ‘Philippines Says it will Not Aid U.S. in Patrolling the South China Sea’, MilitaryTimes, December 8, 2016, https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2016/12/08/philippines-says-it-will-not-aid-u-s-in-patrolling-the-south-china-sea/.

¹⁰⁷ Jane Perlez, ‘Rodrigo Duterte and Xi Jinping Agree to Reopen South China Sea Talks’, New York Times, October 20, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/21/world/asia/rodrigo-duterte-philippines-china-xi-jinping.html.

¹⁰⁸ Andreo Calonzo and Cecilia Yap, ‘China Visit Helps Duterte Reap Funding Deals Worth $24 Billion’, Bloomberg, October 21, 2016, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-21/china-visit-helps-duterte-reap-funding-deals-worth-24-billion; Daxim L. Lucas and Doris Dumlao-Abadilla, ‘PH bags $13.5B in Deals from China’, Inquirer.net, October 21, 2016, https://business.inquirer.net/217113/ph-bags-13-5b-in-deals-from-china; ‘China Offers $14 Million Arms Package to Philippines for Free’, South China Morning Post, December 20, 2016, https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/diplomacy/article/2056027/china-offers-14-million-arms-package-philippines-free.

¹⁰⁹ Simon Denyer, ‘Duterte’s Deal with China Seen by Satellite’, Washington Post, November 2, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/11/02/dutertes-deal-with-china-seen-by-satellite-fishing-allowed-but-no-change-in-control-of-disputed-shoal/?utm_term=.6f8e26040461; ‘Philippines Aims to “Take Control Again” of Shoal from China Amid Rising Tensions’, South China Morning Post, September 26, 2023, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3235847/south-china-sea-philippines-aims-take-control-again-shoal-china-amid-rising-tensions.

¹¹⁰ ‘China Lifts Import Ban on Philippine Bananas’, Department of Trade and Industry, Republic of the Philippines, October 7, 2016, https://www.dti.gov.ph/negosyo/exports/emb-news/china-lifts-import-ban-on-philippine-bananas/; Michael Peel and Grace Ramos, ‘Philippine Banana Bonanza Sparks Debate on Shift to China’, Financial Times, March 14, 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/3f6df338-056b-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9; Bernie Cahiles Magkilat, ‘China Buying More PH Bananas’, Manila Bulletin, September 20, 2018, https://mb.com.ph/2018/09/20/china-buying-more-ph-bananas/.

¹¹¹ ‘Value of Goods Imported from the Philippines to China from 2006 to 2021’, Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/525345/china-export-of-goods-to-the-philippines/.

¹¹² Jake Maxwell Watts, “China’s Xi Woos Philippines as Rivalry With U.S. in Asia Deepens, Wall Street Journal, November 20, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-woos-philippines-as-rivalry-with-u-s-in-asia-deepens-1542722679; ‘Annual Flow of Foreign Direct Investments from China to the Philippines between 2010 and 2020’, Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/720386/china-outward-fdi-flows-to-the-philippines/; Alvin A. Camba, ‘The Philippines Foreign Direct Investment Boom: Comparing China with the Rest’, Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, April 10, 2018, https://appfi.ph/resources/commentaries/2063-the-philippines-foreign-direct-investment-boom-comparing-china-with-the-rest.

¹¹³ Christina Mendez and Edith Regalado, ‘China Just Wants to be Friends with Philippines—Duterte’, Philippine Star, April 4, 2019, https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2019/04/04/1907099/china-just-wants-be-friends-philippines-duterte; ‘Duterte Dares US to Send 7th Fleet to South China Sea’, CNN, July 9, 2019, https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/2019/7/9/Rodrigo-Duterte-7th-Fleet-United-States.html?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2007.09.19&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief.

¹¹⁴ Wu Xinbo, ‘Lun Yatai Da Bianju’ (On the Great Change in the Asia-Pacific), Shijie Jingji yu Zhengzhi 6, (2017), p. 47; Ren Yuanzhe, ‘Duterte Shiqi Mei Fei Fangwu Hezuo de Tiaozheng ji qi Juxian’ (Adjustments and limitations of the US-Philippines defense cooperation during the Duterte administration), Guoji Wenti Yanjiu 1, (2020), pp. 132–133.

¹¹⁵ Lian Bo, ‘Zhuisui Zhanlüe de “Huanghun”: Jiyu Dongnanya Guojia dui Zhong Mei Liang Guo Zhanlue Quxiang de Fenxi’ (Twilight of bandwagon strategy: Strategic of Southeast Asian countries towards the US and China), Dangdai Yatai 1, (2019), pp. 110–111; Yan Dexue, ‘Meiguo Yatai Lianmeng Guanli Kunjing Pinggu’ (Assessment of the management dilemma of the American Asia-Pacific alliance), Yatai Anquan yu Haiyan Yanjiu 5, (2021), pp. 19, 23–24; Zuo Yingxi, ‘Meiguo Yatai Lianmeng Tixi hui Zouxiang Wajie?’ (Will the U.S. Alliance System in Asia-Pacific Collapse?), Shijie Jingji yu Zhengzhi 20, (2019), p. 55, p. 63.

¹¹⁶ Nie Wenjuan, ‘Zhong Mei Jingzheng Taishi xia Dongnanya Diqu Quanli Geju de Yanbian’ (Emerging power transition in the Southeast Asia in the context of Sino-U.S. competition), Shijie Jingjing yu Zhengzhi Luntan (Forum on world economics and politics) 2, (2020), pp. 37–38; Ren, ‘Duterte Shiqi Mei Fei Fangwu Hezuo de Tiaozheng ji qi Juxian’, p. 124, p. 127.

¹¹⁷ Zhou Shixing, ‘Mei Fei Tongmeng Guanxi de Zhanlüe Zhuangxing yu Nanhai Wenti’ (The strategic transformation of the US-Philippines alliance and the South China Sea issue), Yatai Anquan yu Haiyang Yanjiu (Asia Pacific security and maritime studies) 6, (2016), p. 62; Luo, ‘Zhanlüe yuqi yu Xiaoguo Tiaozhan Zhoubian Daguo de Celüe’, pp. 144–145; Lian, ‘Zhuisui Zhanlüe de “Huanghun”’, p. 112.

¹¹⁸ Luo Xiao, ‘Zhanlüe yuqi yu Xiaoguo Tiaozhan Zhoubian Daguo de Celüe Xuanze—Yi Fei, Yue Liang Guo Nanhai zhi Hua Zhengce (2009 ~ 2019); Wei Li’, pp. 141–142; Ren, ‘Duteerte Shiqi Mei Fei Fangwu Hezuo de Tiaozheng ji qi Juxian’, p. 135.

¹¹⁹ Lian, “Zhuisui Zhanlüe de ‘Huanghun’,“ pp. 110–111; Liu Ruonan, ‘Dongnanya Guojia dui Telangpu Zhengfu Diqu Anquan Zhengcede Fanying’ (Southeast Asia countries’ response to Trump administration’s regional security policy), Xiandai Guoji Guanxi, 1, (2019), p. 23; Luo, ‘Zhanlüe yuqi yu Xiaoguo Tiaozhan Zhoubian Daguo de Celüe Xuanze’, pp. 144–145; Ren, ‘Duteerte Shiqi Mei Fei Fangwu Hezuo de Tiaozheng ji qi Juxian’, p. 123.

¹²⁰ Ren, ‘Duterte Shiqi Mei Fei Fangwu Hezuo de Tiaozheng ji qi Juxian’, p. 133; Luo, ‘Zhanlüe yuqi yu Xiaoguo Tiaozhan Zhoubian Daguo de Celüe’, pp. 144–145; Lian, ‘Zhuisui Zhanlüe de “Huanghun”’, p. 111.

¹²¹ ‘Speech by President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr. at the Meeting with Asia Society’, Office of the President of the Philippines, September 27, 2023, https://pco.gov.ph/presidential-speech/speech-by-president-ferdinand-romualdez-marcos-jr-at-the-meeting-with-asia-society-with-qa/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20after%20all,and%20socio%2Deconomic%20development%20agenda.

¹²² Zamone Perez and Jon Simkins, ‘US F-22s Land in Philippines for First Time, Furthering Defense Ties’, AirForceTimes, March 21, 2023, https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2023/03/21/us-f-22s-land-in-philippines-for-first-time-furthering-defense-ties/; Sui-Lee Wee, ‘U.S. to Boost Military Role in the Philippines in Push to Counter China’, New York Times, February 3, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/world/asia/philippines-united-states-military-bases.html?smid=em-share; Karen Lema, ‘Philippines Reveals Locations of 4 New Strategic Sites for U.S. Military Pact’, Reuters, April 3, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-reveals-locations-4-new-strategic-sites-us-military-pact-2023-04-03/; Geoff Ziezulewicz, ‘Big Balikatan: Annual US-Philippines Exercise to be Bigger than Ever’, NavyTimes, April 5, 2023, https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2023/04/05/big-balikatan-annual-us-philippines-exercise-to-be-bigger-than-ever/.

¹²³ Manolo Serapio Jr and Cliff Harvey Venzon, ‘Philippine Defense Head Seeks to Boost Military Site Near Taiwan’, Bloomberg, February 6, 2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/philippine-defense-head-seeks-to-boost-military-site-near-taiwan?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=email.

¹²⁴ Liu Zhen, ‘China Warns Philippines Against “Playing With Fire” as Manila Boosts Military Presence Near Taiwan’, South China Morning Post, February 9, 2024, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3251463/china-warns-philippines-against-playing-fire-manila-boosts-military-presence-near-taiwan.

¹²⁵ Pia Lee-Brago, ‘Batanes Seaport to be Funded by US’, Philippine Star, March 12, 2024, https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2024/03/12/2339913/batanes-seaport-be-funded-us.

¹²⁶ Amber Wong, ‘No Risk of Imminent War with Philippines over Disputed Claims, Beijing Think Tank Says’, South China Morning Post, March 26, 2024, athttps://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3256814/south-china-sea-no-risk-imminent-war-philippines-over-disputed-claims-beijing-think-tank-says.

¹²⁷ Lei Xiaolu, ‘What Should be Taken Serioly in the Current Situation of the South China Sea?’, http://www.scspi.org/en/dtfx/what-should-be-taken-seriously-current-situation-south-china-sea.

¹²⁸ Neil Jerome Morales and Yew Lun Tian, ‘Philippines Ups Stakes in China Row, Vows Countermeasures to Coastguard “Attacks”’, Reuters, March 28. 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-defence-chief-reaffirms-support-philippines-chides-dangerous-chinese-conduct-2024-03-28/.

¹²⁹ ‘Calmness and Rtionality are What Manila Needs Most Right Now’, editorial, Global Times, March 30, 2024, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1309802.shtml.

¹³⁰ Cliff Harvey Venzon and Phila Siu, ‘China Says It Drove Away Philippine Navy Ship in Disputed Sea’, Bloomberg, October 10, 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-10/china-says-it-drove-away-philippine-navy-ship-in-disputed-sea; Andreo Calonzo, ‘US Says Philippines Took “Bold Step” in Barrier Row with China’, Bloomberg, September 29, 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-29/us-says-philippines-took-bold-step-in-barrier-row-with-china?srnd=asia-politics&leadSource=uverify%20wall; Lin Congyi, ‘By Essentially Doing Washington’s Bidding, Manila Walks a Very Dangerous Tightrope’, China Daily, November 1, 2023, http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/OPINIONS_209196/Opinions_209197/16263806.html. Laura Zhou, ‘Chinese Coastguard “Drove Off” Filipinos in Latest Run-In at Disputed Scarborough Shoal’, South China Morning Post, January 31, 2024, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3250413/south-china-sea-chinese-coastguard-drove-filipinos-latest-run-disputed-scarborough-shoal; Seong Hyeon Choi, ‘China’s Coastguard Claims it Drove Off Philippine Ship from Disputed Scarborough Shoal’, South China Morning Post, February 22, 2024, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3252811/chinas-coastguard-claims-it-drove-philippine-ship-disputed-scarborough-shoal; Greg Torode and Karen Lema, ‘Satellite Images Reveal Floating Barrier at Mouth of Disputed Atoll in South China Sea’, Reuters, February 26, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/satellite-images-reveal-floating-barrier-mouth-disputed-atoll-south-china-sea-2024-02-26/; Micah McCartney, ‘China Deploys Military Helicopter As Dispute With US Ally Escalates’, Newsweek, February 27, 2024, https://www.newsweek.com/china-accused-using-signal-jammer-dispute-us-ally-1873683.

¹³¹ ”Tracking Tensions at Second Thomas Shoal”, Amti Brief, Center for Strategic and International Affairs, January 30, 2024, https://amti.csis.org/tracking-tensions-at-second-thomas-shoal/.

¹³² Peter Martin and Manolo Serapio Jr., ‘China Threatens to Release Audio of Secret Deal With Philippines’, Bloomberg, May 7, 2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines; Jeoffrey Maitem, Philippine Officials Outraged, Accuse Beijing of Anti-Wiretapping Law Violation over ‘New Model’ Phone Call’, South China Morning Post, May 9, 2024, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3261941/south-china-sea-philippine-officials-outraged-accuse-beijing-anti-wiretapping-law-violation-over-new; ‘Video Shows China Blasting Water Cannon at Philippines Coast Guard Boat”, New York Times, August 7, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/07/world/asia/philippines-china-ship.html.

¹³³ Jim Gomez and Joeal Calupitan, “Dozens of Chinese Ships Chase Philippine Vessels as US Renews Warning it Will Defend its Treaty Ally, Associated Press, November 11, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/south-china-sea-disputed-second-thomas-shoal-f702d9b9b84f9019083fb4d530fdf970; Jim Gomez, ‘Philippines Says Chinese Coast Guard Used Water Cannons Against its Vessels for a Second Day’, Associated Press, December 10, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/south-china-sea-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-scarborough-shoal-632cbc349007048cc2ad56502ef4fc67; ‘US Ship Conducts Navigation Operation Near Second Thomas Shoal’, Radio Free Asia, December 4, 2023, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/southchinasea/us-second-thomas-12042023022926.html.

¹³⁴ Jim Gomez, ‘Philippine and Chinese Vessels Collide in Disputed South China Sea and 4 Filipino Crew are Injured’, Associated Press, March 5, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/philippines-china-south-china-sea-collision-e69d9506e85d1d23685db4f220b50d71?utm_source=Email&utm_medium=share;

¹³⁵ ‘Wangyi tong Feiübin Waizhang Manaluo Tongdianhua’ (Wang Yi phone conversation with Philippine Foreign Minister Manaro), Chinese Foreign Ministry, December 20, 2023, https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/wjbzhd/202312/t20231220_11208285.shtml.

¹³⁶ Wu Shicun, ‘Dui Nanhai “Shengluan Shengbian” Ganyu Liangjian’, Huanqiu Shibao), February 5, 2024, https://m.huanqiu.com/article/4GTGrLlWWb.

¹³⁷ 2024 Nian 3 Yue 11 Ri Waijiaobu Fayanren Wang Wenbin Zhuchi Lixing Jizhehui (Foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s regular press conference, March 11, 2024), https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202403/t20240311_11257611.html.

¹³⁸ ‘China Coastguard Uses Wwater Cannons Against Philippine Ships in South China Sea’, Reuters, March 23, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-coast-guard-says-it-took-measures-against-philippine-vessels-south-china-2024-03-23/; China Vice Foreign Minister Says Relations with Philippines Are at a Crossroads”, Reuters, March 25, 2–24, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vice-foreign-minister-says-relations-with-philippines-are-crossroads-2024-03-25/; ‘China Vows to Safeguard its Territorial Integrity After South China Sea Incident’, Reuters, March 23, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vows-safeguard-its-territorial-integrity-after-south-china-sea-incident-2024-03-24/.

¹³⁹ ‘Philippines Boosts Maritime Security as China Tension Rises’, Reuters, March 31, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-marcos-boosts-maritime-security-china-tension-rises-2024-03-31/; Karen Lema, ‘Philippines Prepared to Respond to China’s Attempts to Interfere with Re-Supply Missions’, Reuters, April 3, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-says-it-is-committed-maintaining-position-second-thomas-shoal-2024-04-03/.

¹⁴⁰ Michael D. Shear, ‘Biden Aims to Project United Front Against China at White House Summit’, New York Times, April 11, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/11/us/politics/biden-japan-philippines-summit.html; ‘PLA Patrols South China Sea ss US, Philippines, Japan and Australia Hold Joint Military Drills’, South China Morning Post, April 7 2024, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3258120/pla-patrols-south-china-sea-us-philippines-japan-and-australia-hold-joint-military-drills; Dzirhan Mahadzir, ‘Defense Heads Of Japan, Australia, U.S. And Philippines To Meet In Hawaii; Carrier Roosevelt Makes Port Call In Thailand’, USNI News, April 26, 2024, https://news.usni.org/2024/04/26/defense-heads-of-japan-australia-u-s-and-philippines-to-meet-in-hawaii-carrier-roosevelt-makes-port-call-in-thailand,

¹⁴¹ Nathan Alcantara, Nestor Corrales, ‘Batanes as “Balikatan” Site: US Army Execs Arrive to Build Warehouse’, Inquirer.net April 6. 2024,

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1926827/batanes-as-balikatan-site-us-army-execs-arrive-to-build-warehouse; Jen Judson, ‘US Army Deploys Midrange Missile for First Time in Philippines’, DefenseNews, April 16, 2024, https://www.defensenews.com/land/2024/04/16/us-army-deploys-midrange-missile-for-first-time-in-philippines/; John A. Tirpak, ‘B-52s Join in Philippines Exercise, Then Head to Guam for Bomber Task Force’, Air and Space Forces, May 7, 2024, https://www.airandspaceforces.com/b-52s-phillippines-exercise-guam/ ; Jeoffrey Maitem, ‘US-Philippine forces fire rockets towards disputed waters, insist drill not meant to be provocation,. South China Morning Post, May 2, 2024, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3261222/south-china-sea-us-philippine-forces-fire-rockets-towards-disputed-waters-insist-drill-not-meant-be; Peter Martin‘US Holds Drills With the Philippines at Tiny Island Near Taiwan’, Bloomberg, May 6, 2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-06/us-holds-drills-with-the-philippines-at-tiny-island-near-taiwan?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=email.

¹⁴² ‘Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning’s Regular Press Conference on April 11, 2024’, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202404/t20240411_11280341.html; Philippines Accuses China of Damaging its Vessels in Disputed South China Sea Shoal’, Reuters, April 30, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-coast-guard-expels-philippine-vessels-scarborough-shoal-state-media-says-2024-04-30/.

¹⁴³ Shi Jingtao, ‘China Slams Manila again over Closer US Military Ties, Warns against “Drawing Wolves into the House”’, South China Morning Post, March 12, 2023, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3213270/china-slams-manila-again-over-closer-us-military-ties-warns-against-drawing-wolves-house?utm_source=rss_feed; Jim Gomez, ‘Chinese Diplomats Oppose US Military Presence in Philippines’, MilitaryTimes, March 23, 2023, https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/china/2023/03/23/chinese-diplomats-oppose-us-military-presence-in-philippines/.

¹⁴⁴ Wu Shicun, ‘Rang Shishi Shuohua, Jiujing Shei zai Gaibian Nanhai Xianzhunag’ (Let’s look at the facts: Who is actually changing the status quo in the South China Sea?), Huanqiu Shibao, December 21, 2023, https://m.huanqiu.com/article/4Fr1asW5r6S;,Wu Shicun”,Meiguo shi Nanhai Xingshi Shengwen Zuida Tuishou” (The United States is the biggest driver f the escalating situation in the South China Sea), Guanchazhe (Observer), October 29, 2023, https://www.guancha.cn/WuShiCun/2023_10_29_713764.shtml; Wu Shicun, ‘Dui Nanhai “Shengluan Shengbian” Ganyu Liangjian’ (Brave enough to draw the sword over South China Sea ‘chaos and change), Huanqiu Shibao, February 5, 2024, https://m.huanqiu.com/article/4GTGrLlWWbl.

¹⁴⁵ Ding Duo”,Feiübin Xuyao ‘Renaijiao Haishang Shitai’ Dedao Naxie Qishi” (What lessons does the Philippines need to learn from the situation regarding the ‘second Thomas Shoal incident’), Nanhai zhi Shen (Voice of the South China Sea), August 16, 2023, https://vscs.cri.cn/m/20230816/b18242f2-d956-96f0-6b8d-2d06d136a61c.html.

¹⁴⁶ Yang Guanghai, ‘Meiguo Kuangda zai Fei Junshi.Jidi Shiyong Quan de Yitu, Yingxiang ji Duice Jianyi’ (Intention, impact and countermeasure suggestions regarding U.S. expansion of its right to use military bases in the Philippines), ‘Haiyang Anquan Fazhan’, Yanjiu Baogao (Maritime Security and Development Report), 19, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, December 2023, p. 1, p. 3,https://nanhai.nju.edu.cn/da/a6/c5320a645798/page.htm?utm_source=BenchmarkEmail&utm_campaign=%e2%80%9c%e6%b5%b7%e6%b4%8b%e5%ae%89%e5%85%a8%e4%b8%8e%e5%8f%91%e5%b1%95%e2%80%9d%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%e6%8a%a5%e5%91%8a%e7%ac%ac19%e6%9c%9f_Maritime_Security_and_Development_Policy_Report_No.19&utm_medium=email.

¹⁴⁷ Wang Chuanlong and Xie Wentao, “Mei Fei ‘Jiaqiang Fangwu Hezuo Xieyi’ de Jinzhan, Dongjn yi Yingxiang (Progress, motivation and impact of the U.S.-Philippine Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement), Junshi Wenzhai (Military digest), September 1, 2023, p. 38, p. 40.

¹⁴⁸ Cao Xiaoyang, “Meiguo yu Feiübin Tongmeng Guanxi de Qianghua jiqi Zouxiang (The strengthened US—Philippines alliance and its trend), Xiandai Guoji Guanxi 6, (2023), pp. 93–94

¹⁴⁹ Zhong Shen, ‘Wushi Zhongfang Shanyi he Kezhi de Nanhai Tiaoxin Xingjing Jiqi Weixian’ (Provocative acts in the South China Sea that disregard China’s goodwill and restraint are extremely dangerous), Renmin Ribao, December 25, 2023, http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2023–12/25/nw.D110000renmrb_20231225_2–18.htm.

¹⁵⁰ Robert S. Ross, ‘Sino-Vietnamese Relations in the Era of Rising China: Power vs. Resistance and the Sources of Instability’, Journal of Contemporary China, vol. 30, no. 130 (2021); Robert S. Ross, ‘China Looks at the Korean Peninsula: The “Two Transitions”’, Survival 63(6), (October 2021).

Additional information

Funding

Research for this article was supported by the Security in Asia Program at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies.

Notes on contributors

Robert S. Ross

Robert S. Ross is Professor of Political Science at Boston College and Associate, John King Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Harvard University. His recent publications include Strategic Adjustment and the Rise of China: Power and Politics in East Asia and US-China Foreign Relations: Power Transition and its Implications for Europe and Asia.