Asia’s Great Powers and Regional Stability: A New Trilateral Dynamic Between the United States, China, and Japan

ABSTRACT

The Forum on Asia-Pacific Security (FAPS) of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP) hosted two days of Track 1.5 meetings in Beijing from October 19–20, 2015. This report is not so much an effort to summarize the rich discussion at the trilateral meeting, as it is an effort to analyze the complex and fragile nature of trilateral relations today and to offer suggestions to all three sides for improvement in their ties with each other. The meeting focused on the interactions between and among the bilateral relationships that comprise this trilateral and the policy agenda for cooperation in ensuring stability in the Asia Pacific during this time of geostrategic change.

KEYWORDS:

• ASEAN
• Asia-Pacific security
• South China Sea
• U.S.-China-Japan
• U.S.-China relations

Notes

“Remarks by the President to the Business Roundtable,” The White House, September 16, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/16/remarks-president-business-roundtable.

Remarks by National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice on the “U.S.-China Relationship” at George Washington University, September 21, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/21/national-security-advisor-susan-e-rices-prepared-remarks-us-china.

Simon Denyer, “U.S. Navy Alarmed at Beijing’s ‘Great Wall of Sand’ in South China Sea,” Washington Post, April 1, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-navy-alarmed-at-beijings-great-wall-of-sand-in-south-china-sea/2015/04/01/dda11d76-70d7-4b69-bd87-292bd18f5918_story.html.

James Pearson and Ben Blanchard, “U.S. Admiral Says His South China Sea Surveillance Flight ‘Routine’” Reuters, July 20, 2015, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/20/us-southchinasea-usa-idUSKCN0PU08720150720#xC5uMdb4ZzcIiPVW.97.

“FACT SHEET: President Xi Jinping’s State Visit to the United States,” The White House, September 25, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/25/fact-sheet-president-xi-jinpings-state-visit-united-states.

“Remarks by President Obama and President Xi of the People’s Republic of China in Joint Press Conference,” The White House, September 25, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/25/remarks-president-obama-and-president-xi-peoples-republic-china-joint.

“Remarks as Prepared for Delivery by National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice,” The White House, November 21, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/11/21/remarks-prepared-delivery-national-security-advisor-susan-e-rice.

Jim Sciutto and Barbara Starr, “U.S. Warship Sails Close to Chinese Artificial Island in South China Sea,” CNN, October 27, 2015, http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/26/politics/south-china-sea-islands-u-s-destroyer/.

“China’s Xi Offers Hand in Friendship toward Visiting Japanese Delegation,” Asahi Shimbun, May 24, 2015, http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/AJ201505240018.

“Li Keqiang Meets with Japanese Business Delegation,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of People’s China, November 5, 2015, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1312511.shtml.

“Honichi gaikyakusuu (2015 nen 10 gatsu suikeichi) [The Number of Visitors to Japan (Estimated Number as of October 2015)],” Japan National Tourism Organization, November 18, 2015, http://www.jnto.go.jp/jpn/news/press_releases/pdf/20151118_2.pdf.

Jun Hongo, “Japan Likely to Hit 2020 Tourism Goal Early, Thanks to Chinese Visitors,“ Wall Street Journal, November 18, 2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-likely-to-hit-2020-tourism-goal-early-thanks-to-chinese-visitors-1447846034.

Tetsuya Abe, “Japanese Investment in China Falls 16% in First Half,” Nikkei Asian Review, July 21, 2015, http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Economy/Japanese-investment-in-China-falls-16-in-first-half. Historical data from 1995–2014 is available on Japan Trade External Organization (JETRO)’s website, https://www.jetro.go.jp/en/reports/statistics.html.

“China’s Trade Minister Concerned about Falling Japanese Investment—Business Delegates,” Reuters, September 23, 2015, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/23/uk-china-japan-investment-idUKKCN0HI18020140923.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Sheila A. Smith

Sheila Smith is an expert on Japanese politics and foreign policy and is senior fellow for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Her current research focuses on how geostrategic change in Asia is shaping Japan's strategic choices. Smith is a regular contributor to the CFR blog Asia Unbound, and frequent contributor to major media outlets in the United States and Asia. She joined CFR from the East-West Center in 2007, where she directed a multinational research team in a cross-national study of the domestic politics of the U.S. military presence in Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. She was a visiting scholar or researcher at Keio University, the Japan Institute of International Affairs, the Research Institute for Peace and Security, the University of Tokyo and the University of the Ryukyus. She is an adjunct professor at the Asian Studies Department of Georgetown University and serves on the board of its Journal of Asian Affairs. She earned her MA and PhD degrees from the department of political science at Columbia University.